Calculating The Fair Value Of Kardex Holding AG (VTX:KARN)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Kardex Holding is CHF284 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Kardex Holding's CHF228 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate

• Our fair value estimate is 10% higher than Kardex Holding's analyst price target of €258

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Kardex Holding AG (VTX:KARN) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Kardex Holding

Is Kardex Holding Fairly Valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€69.2m	€79.0m	€87.6m	€95.4m	€100.7m	€104.6m	€107.6m	€109.8m	€111.4m	€112.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x5	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Est @ 5.54%	Est @ 3.94%	Est @ 2.81%	Est @ 2.03%	Est @ 1.48%	Est @ 1.09%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 4.8%	€66.0	€71.9	€76.1	€79.1	€79.6	€79.0	€77.5	€75.4	€73.0	€70.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €748m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €113m× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (4.8%– 0.2%) = €2.4b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €2.4b÷ ( 1 + 4.8%)¹⁰= €1.5b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €2.3b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CHF228, the company appears about fair value at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kardex Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.003. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Kardex Holding

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Currently debt free.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.

Opportunity

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market.

• Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Swiss market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Kardex Holding, we've compiled three pertinent items you should assess:

1. Financial Health: Does KARN have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Future Earnings: How does KARN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Swiss stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com