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While Fastly, Inc. (NYSE:FSLY) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the NYSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Fastly’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What's the opportunity in Fastly?
According to my valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued by about 31%, trading at US$47.44 compared to my intrinsic value of $36.15. This means that the buying opportunity has probably disappeared for now. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Fastly’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of Fastly look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -19% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Fastly. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? If you believe FSLY is currently trading above its value, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on FSLY for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Price climbed passed its true value, in addition to a risky future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Be aware that Fastly is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those can't be ignored...
If you are no longer interested in Fastly, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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