Apple, Microsoft and Yahoo heading in different directions at earnings

"The Three Amigos"? "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly"? What movie title will be the operative metaphor later today after Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO) report earnings?

Ahead of the news, investors clearly view Apple on the upswing, Microsoft wavering between success and failure and Yahoo, which owns Yahoo Finance, still in a "prove you can dance" mode. That's largely a reflection of how well each company has made the transition to the increasingly mobile and cloud-based tech markets over the past few years.

The three high-profile reports follow some fireworks in the tech sector last week. Shares of Netflix (NFLX) jumped 18% to an all-time high after the leading online video service added more than 3 million new subscribers in the second quarter. And Google (GOOGL) tacked on an astounding $65 billion in market value after it showed greater discipline around expenses and beat analyst expectations for both profit and sales.

It doesn't take a quarterly report to see that Apple is a clear winner in mobile, sucking up 92% of the profit in the entire worldwide smartphone market by one estimate. Microsoft's mobile efforts are rebooting but its cloud offering looks promising. Meanwhile, Yahoo's shrinking display ad business continues to overwhelm modest progress in mobile, video and programmatic advertising.

Shares of Apple are up 20% so far this year, as analysts have steadily increased their expectations for the iPhone, but the stock has been stuck in a range of $125 to $133 for the past few months. The range could be demolished today if the company beats expectations.

Even in what is often the slowest quarter of the year for Apple's mobile profit machine, analysts expect Apple sold 47 million phones, up from 35 million from a year ago. That's helping to fuel an expected 32% jump in total sales, to $49.25 billion, and a 41% gain in earnings per share to $1.80, according to data from FactSet.

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CEO Tim Cook will no doubt be crowing about the company's excellent execution and high "customer sat" scores. He's not expected to disclose Apple Watch sales, however. The version 1.0 product, which began shipping April 24, hasn't exactly taken the world by storm.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella may have left his honeymoon period behind this quarter. The calm boss of the Redmond, Wash., software giant had to make some tough choices, particularly about his predecessor's foray into phone making. Nadella decided to write down the value of the $9.5 billion Nokia purchase by $7.6 billion -- which will push the entire company into the red for the quarter.

Analysts expect Microsoft will report a loss, but excluding the write-offs an adjusted profit of 56 cents a share versus 55 cents in the year-ago period. Revenue of $22.04 billion would reflect a drop of 6% from the same period a year ago, according to FactSet. And at least so far, there's not much excitement about the impending launch of Windows 10, especially after PC stalwarts like Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) warned of weakness ahead.

Microsoft shares have bounced around significantly in 2015. The stock tumbled about 15% in January on disappointing earnings, then made back all the losses and more in an earnings-fueled rally three months later. But since peaking at $49.54 on April 30, the shares have lost 5%. Looking past all the tumult, Microsoft shares are up 1% for the year, trailing the S&P 500's 3% gain.

At Yahoo, CEO Marissa Mayer is focusing on what she calls the "MaVeNS," or the mobile, video, native and social ad markets. The small but growing areas have yet to offset shrinkage in the company's longtime core display ad business. Analysts expect revenue declined 1% to $1.03 billion last quarter, marking the fourth drop in sales in the past five quarters. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to fall 51% to 18 cents, according to FactSet.

Yahoo's share price -- and market value -- largely tracks the performance of Alibaba (BABA), the Chinese e-commerce titan still 15% owned by Yahoo. Yahoo shares are down 22% on the year, matching the 20% loss in Alibaba. Investors could bid up the shares if Mayer can reassure them about Yahoo's plan to spin off the Alibaba stake, especially after an IRS official raised questions about such spinoffs in a speech in May.