Yahoo Finance Harker said Fed rate cuts are 'near' while Jefferson predicts 'later this year'
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said Thursday that the Fed may be "near" a time where it can begin lowering rates, while Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson predicted that wouldn't happen until "later this year."
The new guidance from the two Fed officials come as investors try to determine how quickly the central bank will begin loosening its monetary policy following the most aggressive campaign to cool inflation since the 1980s.
Markets began the year betting the cuts could start in March, only to revert to June following cautious commentary from Fed chair Jerome Powell and a bevy of other Fed officials, along with hotter-than-expected readings on inflation and job growth.
Harker, who gave a speech in Delaware Thursday, was noticeably more optimistic than Jefferson about cutting rates sooner, saying during a question-and-answer session that "I wouldn’t take May off the table" while also predicting that cuts would happen in the second half of the year.
"I think we’re close – just give us a couple meetings," he added, setting up the June meeting as a possible starting point.
Harker doesn't have a voting seat this year on the Fed's interest-rate setting committee, while Jefferson does.
"I do believe we may be near the point where we can adjust the policy rate downward," Harker said in his speech.
Still, Harker emphasized that he doesn’t want to cut rates too early and re-ignite inflation.
"I would caution anyone from looking for it right now and right away," he said, adding that "we have time to get this right."
Jefferson sounded more cautious Thursday about when those cuts could start.
"If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back our policy restraint later this year," Jefferson said during his speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Jefferson became the latest Fed official to describe the Fed's timetable as "later this year" — a phrase also used recently by Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic last week used the phrase "summer time," while also predicting it would happen in the third quarter of the year.
Two other Fed governors, Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller, urged patience in their own speeches Thursday.
Waller said "I am going to need to see at least another couple more months of inflation data before I can judge whether" a hot inflation reading in January "was a speed bump or a pothole." He said he still expects cuts will happen "sometime this year" but the interest-rate setting committee "can wait a little longer."
"What's the rush?" he asked.
Cook said in her speech that she too would like to have greater confidence that inflation is converging to 2 percent before beginning to cut rates.
"At some point, as we gain greater confidence that disinflation is ongoing and sustainable, that changing outlook will warrant a change in the policy rate," Cook said.
'Bumpy'
The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee decided to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at its last meeting in January, keeping it at its highest level since 2001.
Minutes from that January policy meeting showed most officials "noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2 percent."
A series of new readings on inflation and the US economy that were hotter than expected reinforced the Fed's cautious stance.
The latest signal came Friday when the Labor Department said its Producer Price Index — which tracks the prices businesses pay to manufacture products and services — exceeded forecasts from December to January.
The Consumer Price Index in January also was also hotter than economists expected.
The disappointing CPI reading last week doesn’t appear to be throwing Jefferson’s outlook off course. The Fed official said it highlights that bringing inflation down is likely to be a "bumpy" process.
"My colleagues on the FOMC and I believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle," Jefferson added.
Harker used similar language, referring to the recent hot reading on consumer prices as a "bump" in the road.
"I just want to get a couple more months of data – at least March," he said during a question-and-answer session.
"I don’t see why would we do anything in March. I wouldn’t take May off the table. It’s possible."
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