One of the biggest stories of last week was how Anaplan, Inc. (NYSE:PLAN) shares plunged 21% in the week since its latest annual results, closing yesterday at US$28.39. Revenues came in at US$348m, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$1.15 per share, roughly in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Anaplan after the latest results.
After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Anaplan are now predicting revenues of US$459.1m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a major 32% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$1.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$464.2m and losses of US$1.20 per share in 2021.
The analysts trimmed their valuations, with the average price target falling 5.2% to US$53.72, with the ongoing losses seemingly weighing on sentiment, despite no real changes to the earnings forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Anaplan at US$71.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$35.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Next year brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to grow 32%, in line with its 33% annual growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. So although Anaplan is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Anaplan analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Anaplan (including 2 which are a bit unpleasant) .
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