Yahoo Finance Analysts Are Updating Their Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) Estimates After Its Annual Results
Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.6% to €38.45 in the week after its latest annual results. Deutsche Post beat revenue expectations by 2.2%, at €85b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at €3.04, some 3.9% short of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for Deutsche Post
Following last week's earnings report, Deutsche Post's eleven analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €84.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €3.16, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €84.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.33 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at €47.91, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Deutsche Post at €59.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €37.40. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Deutsche Post shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.7% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.1% per year. It's pretty clear that Deutsche Post's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Deutsche Post. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Deutsche Post's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Deutsche Post going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Deutsche Post that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
