Yahoo Finance Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) After Its Annual Report
It's been a mediocre week for Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) shareholders, with the stock dropping 18% to US$5.96 in the week since its latest yearly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$413m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.38 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Genius Sports
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Genius Sports from ten analysts is for revenues of US$480.5m in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 61% to US$0.16. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$474.4m and US$0.13 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Genius Sports even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a very substantial increase in per-share losses.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$9.14, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Genius Sports analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Genius Sports' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 29% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Genius Sports' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Genius Sports going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
