Yahoo Finance 'The American economy is fundamentally strong': Janet Yellen rejects Moody's 'negative' US outlook — claims Treasuries are still the world's main 'safe and liquid' asset — Who's right?
Moody's Investors Service recently changed its ratings outlook for the U.S. from "stable" to "negative,” citing increased downside risks to the country’s fiscal strength.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen challenged the credit rating company’s assessment, according to news reports.
Don’t miss
Millions of Americans are in massive debt in the face of rising rates. Here's how to get your head above water ASAP
Save big on your holiday shopping with an app that’s already saved Americans $160 million
Find out how to save up to $820 annually on car insurance and get the best rates possible
“This is a decision that I disagree with,” she said at a press conference following the APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting in San Francisco. “The American economy is fundamentally strong, and Treasury securities remain the world’s preeminent safe and liquid asset.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve has implemented significant interest rate hikes since March 2022. While higher rates can cool inflation, Moody’s recent outlook revision highlights concerns about their impact on the country’s fiscal deficits.
“In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues, Moody's expects that the US' fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability,” the ratings agency said.
It also warned that “continued political polarization” in Congress may heighten the risk of lawmakers failing to achieve consensus on a fiscal plan to “slow the decline in debt affordability.”
The national budget deficit for fiscal year 2023 was $1.7 trillion, up from $1.38 trillion in 2022.
In contrast to Moody’s assessment, Yellen emphasized various strong aspects of the U.S. economy.
Is the US economy fundamentally strong?
Yellen pointed out that over the past few years, the U.S. economy has made a historically fast recovery from a deep recession.
“Our unemployment rate is near historic lows, inflation has come down significantly and our economy grew by almost 5% in the third quarter,” she said.
According to the Labor Department’s latest jobs report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October 2023. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9% for the month. Historically, the long-term average unemployment rate in the U.S. typically hovers around 5% to 6%. The next jobs report will be released Dec. 08, 2023.
Looking at inflation, the U.S. consumer price index saw an annual increase of 3.2% in October. Although the figure remains above the Fed’s long-run inflation target of 2%, it’s down quite a bit from the peak 9.1% increase registered in June 2022.
Executives at the country's largest corporations are also feeling optimistic about the economy. The number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls has declined for five straight quarters to just 53 in Q3 2023, according to FactSet.
Read more: Can I collect my dead spouse’s Social Security and my own at the same time? Here are 5 secrets of ‘survivors benefits’ you need to know
Yellen’s view on GDP growth is also noteworthy.
Last month, the Commerce Department reported that for Q3, real GDP in the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 4.9%. This statistic not only exceeded economists’ expectations, but also marked the biggest increase since Q4 of 2021.
That said, Yellen acknowledged the potential difficulties posed by prolonged high interest rates, stating, “It is true that higher interest rates, if they last, do create a challenge, an additional challenge to debt sustainability.”
Still the highest quality?
While Moody’s revised its outlook for the U.S., it maintained the country’s Aaa credit rating.
“The affirmation of the Aaa ratings reflects Moody's view that the US' formidable credit strengths continue to preserve the sovereign's credit profile,” the ratings agency said.
Note, that Moody’s is the only one among the three major credit rating agencies to still maintain a top Aaa rating for the country.
In 2011, Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+.
More recently, in August 2023, Fitch Ratings followed suit, downgrading the country from AAA to AA+.
What to read next
Owning real estate for passive income is one of the biggest myths in investing — but here's how you can actually make it work
Find out why 61% of Americans fear running out of money more than death: Learn this one trick to conquer retirement anxiety now
Mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in 20 years. Should you still consider buying a rental property?
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
