10 US Real Estate Markets To Avoid for Now
Real estate is often thought of as a "safe" investment because prices tend to trend upward over the years. But in some major cities, year-over-year price increases are lagging behind the national average of 10.71 percent. This can be a warning sign of a real estate market to avoid. Other signs include high levels of for-sale inventory, properties that stay on the market for longer than average (the current average time to close is 38 days) and a large share of listings with price cuts.
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GOBankingRates analyzed these factors and more across the 200 largest metro areas to find the 10 real estate markets that prospective buyers should avoid right now.
10. Salinas, California
Home value in December 2022: $822,773
Home value in December 2021: $796,065
Change in home value (%): 3.36%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 479
Mean days to close: 31
Share of listings with price cuts: 20.3%
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9. Los Angeles
Home value in December 2022: $945,424
Home value in December 2021: $909,306
Change in home value (%): 3.97%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 15,657
Mean days to close: 30
Share of listings with price cuts: 21.88%
8. Pittsburgh
Home value in December 2022: $210,373
Home value in December 2021: $203,505
Change in home value (%): 3.37%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 6,154
Mean days to close: 44
Share of listings with price cuts: 23.34%
7. New York
Home value in December 2022: $626,122
Home value in December 2021: $579,214
Change in home value (%): 8.1%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 28,958
Mean days to close: 59
Share of listings with price cuts: 14.26%
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6. San Francisco
Home value in December 2022: $1,444,267
Home value in December 2021: $1,434,173
Change in home value (%): 0.7%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 5,056
Mean days to close: 26
Share of listings with price cuts: 21.94%
5. Austin, Texas
Home value in December 2022: $541,535
Home value in December 2021: $540,113
Change in home value (%): 0.26%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 9,738
Mean days to close: 28
Share of listings with price cuts: 30.59%
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4. San Jose, California
Home value in December 2022: $1,643,354
Home value in December 2021: $1,594,025
Change in home value (%): 3.09%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 1,497
Mean days to close: 29
Share of listings with price cuts: 21.81%
3. Phoenix
Home value in December 2022: $452,881
Home value in December 2021: $434,518
Change in home value (%): 4.23%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 21,874
Mean days to close: 27
Share of listings with price cuts: 35.75%
2. Reno, Nevada
Home value in December 2022: $546,514
Home value in December 2021: $545,950
Change in home value (%): 0.1%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 1,763
Mean days to close: 33
Share of listings with price cuts: 29.87%
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1. Boise, Idaho
Home value in December 2022: $481,736
Home value in December 2021: $502,904
Change in home value (%): -4.21%
New for-sale inventory (active unique listings): 2,909
Mean days to close: 29
Share of listings with price cuts: 34.3%
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Methodology: GOBankingRates looked at the 200 largest metro statistical areas (MSAs) according to their real estate markets and found the following 10 factors: (1) 1-year percent change in home value; (2) 1-year change in home value in USD; (3) 2-year percent change in home value; (4) 2-year change in home value in USD; (5) for-sale inventory; (6) mean days from listing to pending; (7) mean list-to-sale ratio; (8) mean days from pending to close; (9) share of listings with a price cut; and (10) mean price cut. All data was sourced from Zillow's December 2022 data. All 10 factors were then scored and combined with the highest score being the worst. In final calculations, factors (1), (2), (9) and (10) were weighted 2x and factor (5) was weighted 0.5x. All data was collected and is up to date as of Feb. 7, 2023.
This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 10 US Real Estate Markets To Avoid for Now