UPDATE 1-US natgas prices little changed as colder forecasts offset storage oversupply

(Adds latest prices) By Scott DiSavino April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Friday as bullish forecasts for cooler weather and more demand next week than previously expected and a continued drop in output offset bearish negative spot power and gas prices and a massive oversupply of gas in storage. Analysts forecast stockpiles were currently around 35% above normal levels for this time of year. U.S. gas production has dropped by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy. U.S. drillers cut the number of gas rigs operating by three to 106, their lowest since December 2021, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.5 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $1.752 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That put the contract down about 1% for a second week in a row. In the spot market, power and gas prices in many states, including Texas, California and Arizona, have traded below zero several times this spring due to low demand, ample renewable power supplies and pipeline maintenance that has trapped gas in Texas. Next-day gas at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas rose to negative 69 cents per mmBtu on Thursday, the ninth day in a row that Waha prices have averaged below zero, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal. In California, meanwhile, next-day power at South Path-15 (SP-15) in the southern part of the state plunged by about 107% to a one-week low of negative $1 per megawatt hour on Thursday. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 98.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 2.7 bcfd over the past seven days to a preliminary three-month low of 95.9 bcfd on Friday. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through April 26 before turning warmer than normal from April 27-May 4. LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 91.9 bcfd this week to 97.5 bcfd next week before sliding to 94.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.8 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary 11.0 bcfd on Friday, up from a 15-month low of 9.2 bcfd on Tuesday when feedgas declined at several facilities, including Freeport LNG in Texas, Cameron LNG in Louisiana, and Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Since Tuesday, gas flows have increased at most of those plants, including Freeport. Feedgas at Freeport was on track to reach 0.3 bcfd on Friday, up from near zero over the prior seven days. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Apr 19 Apr 12 Apr 19 average Forecast Actual Apr 19 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +64 +50 +77 +59 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,397 2,333 1,986 1,770 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 35.4% 36.4% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year Last Year Average Average 2023 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 1.75 1.76 2.20 2.66 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 9.95 10.14 13.49 13.04 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 10.88 10.75 12.34 14.39 14.31 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 119 110 147 141 122 U.S. GFS CDDs 52 59 31 40 44 U.S. GFS TDDs 171 169 178 181 166 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year (2019-2023) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.9 97.3 96.7 101.3 95.0 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 6.9 6.9 7.6 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 106.1 104.2 103.8 108.9 102.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.9 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.4 U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 10.7 11.2 14.4 10.1 U.S. Commercial 8.2 6.7 8.0 7.4 8.4 U.S. Residential 11.2 8.0 10.4 9.6 11.8 U.S. Power Plant 27.9 28.0 28.7 25.6 22.7 U.S. Industrial 23.1 22.5 23.4 21.5 25.9 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 77.5 71.9 77.4 71.2 76.2 Total U.S. Demand 99.3 91.9 97.5 93.5 94.1 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 81 80 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 81 81 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 82 82 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Apr 19 Apr 12 Apr 5 Mar 29 Mar 22 Wind 18 16 15 16 13 Solar 7 6 5 5 5 Hydro 7 7 7 8 8 Other 2 1 1 1 1 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 35 37 38 38 40 Coal 13 13 13 13 13 Nuclear 19 20 20 19 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 1.59 1.50 Transco Z6 New York 1.38 1.41 PG&E Citygate 2.22 2.15 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.28 1.28 Chicago Citygate 1.41 1.32 Algonquin Citygate 1.53 1.44 SoCal Citygate 1.96 2.07 Waha Hub -0.69 -0.88 AECO 0.93 0.90 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 26.50 32.50 PJM West 25.50 40.50 Ercot North 24.50 20.50 Mid C 25.50 26.25 Palo Verde 1.50 17.75 SP-15 -1.00 15.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Louise Heavens)