UPDATE 1-US natgas prices ease on record output, milder weather forecasts

(Adds latest prices) Dec 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas prices ticked down on Tuesday on record output and forecasts for milder weather that should allow utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual through late December. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled 1.1 cents, or 0.4%, lower at $2.492 per million British thermal units. Prices were up for the last four sessions after being in oversold territory. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 108.5 bcfd so far in December from a record 108.3 bcfd in November. "Prices are falling because of abundance of supply and warmer weather than expected... Since the last few days, the market is in a consolidation phase where it may go sideways until we get more information about what kind of weather we're going to have in January," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, at 125.5 bcfd this week. However, demand was projected to slide to 120.9 bcfd during the next week when many businesses and government offices shut for the Christmas holiday. Support from the weather factor has been limited with comparatively mild temperature views in key regions now extended into next month, analysts at energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "With each day that the temperature forecasts stretch further into January, the more important a supply surplus will become." Record production and ample gas in storage prompted some traders to forecast that prices had already peaked this winter (November-March) in November. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to an average of 14.7 bcfd so far in December, up from a record 14.3 bcfd in November. Traders also were keeping an eye on reports that a number of container ships are anchored in the Red Sea and others have turned off tracking systems as traders adjust routes and prices in response to maritime attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on the world's main East-West trade route. Goldman Sachs noted that disruption to energy flows in the Red Sea is unlikely to have large effects on crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices as vessel redirection opportunities imply that production should not be directly affected. Several LNG vessels have changed course in recent days to avoid the Red Sea region. Dutch and British gas prices fell, with healthy gas supply and weaker demand offsetting wider geopolitical concerns. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Dec 15 Dec 8 Dec 15 average Forecast Actual Dec 15 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -80 -55 -82 -107 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,584 3,664 3,337 3,297 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 8.7% 7.6% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 5.77 6.54 2.89 2.43 2.57 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 36.68 40.50 7.49 10.49 11.23 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 32.34 34.11 8.95 12.40 11.77 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 295 324 371 370 385 U.S. GFS CDDs 1 1 10 5 5 U.S. GFS TDDs 296 325 381 375 390 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year (2018-2022) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.8 94.2 108.9 108.5 108.7 U.S. Imports from Canada8 10.0 9.1 8.6 8.5 9.0 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 112.8 103.5 117.5 117 117.7 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.2 5.0 3.8 3.8 4.4 U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 8.6 14.7 15.0 14.6 U.S. Commercial 15.4 14.6 13.8 13.9 13.0 U.S. Residential 25.8 24.7 22.3 22.4 20.9 U.S. Power Plant 30.4 28.6 34.1 34.2 32.7 U.S. Industrial 24.7 25.0 24.7 24.7 24.0 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.6 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 104.4 101.2 103.1 103.5 98.7 Total U.S. Demand 125.6 118.0 125.0 125.5 120.9 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal % of % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Normal Actual Actual Actual Forecast Apr-Sep 82 83 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 81 81 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 81 82 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Dec 22 Dec 15 Dec 8 Dec 1 Nov 24 Wind 10 11 12 10 11 Solar 3 3 3 3 3 Hydro 6 6 5 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 41 40 42 39 Coal 18 17 17 17 16 Nuclear 20 20 21 20 22 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.59 2.44 Transco Z6 New York 2.21 1.64 PG&E Citygate 3.97 3.93 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.94 1.64 Chicago Citygate 2.26 2.20 Algonquin Citygate 2.86 1.88 SoCal Citygate 3.30 3.48 Waha Hub 1.73 1.96 AECO 1.85 1.76 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 33.00 27.00 PJM West 43.25 24.50 Ercot North 15.00 18.00 Mid C 50.00 62.68 Palo Verde 50.25 47.00 SP-15 51.50 43.50 (Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Additional Reporting by Daksh Grover, Editing by Paul Simao and David Gregorio)