UPDATE 1-US natgas futures slide 2% on record output, lower LNG exports

(Adds latest prices, detail on New York budget in paragraph 10, Biden administration proposing tax on crypto miners in paragraphs 11-12) May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a one-week low on Wednesday as drillers keep pulling record amounts of gas out of the ground, mild weather kept demand low and the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants declined as units shut for spring maintenance. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.4 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.170 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since April 26. That also puts the front-month down for a third day in a row for the first time since late March. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from a record 101.4 bcfd in April. Meteorologists projected the weather would be mostly near normal in the Lower 48 states through May 18 with equal amounts of heating and cooling degree days. Heating degree days (HDDs) measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses. Cooling degree days (CDDs) measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 F to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses. With the weather turning seasonally warmer, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 95.0 bcfd this week to 90.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in May, down from a record 14.0 bcfd in April. The decline was due mostly to reductions at a couple of facilities in Louisiana: Cameron LNG and Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass. Last month's record was higher than the 13.8 bcfd of gas the seven plants can turn into LNG since the facilities also use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG. In New York, Governor Kathy Hochul and the state legislature passed a budget that makes New York the first state to ban the installation of fossil-fuel equipment, including gas furnaces and stoves, in most new buildings starting in 2026. Hochul and some legislators tried but failed to pass a similar ban in 2022. Separately, U.S. President Joe Biden's administration proposed the Digital Asset Mining Energy (DAME) excise tax, in which crypto miners would face a tax equal to 30% of the cost of the electricity they use. The excise tax was also included in the president's proposed 2024 budget in March. U.S. crypto miners consumed about 50 billion kilowatt hours of electricity in 2022, according to a White House report, which is close to the amount of electricity U.S. homes used to power their televisions. GLOBAL GAS PRICE COLLAPSE Some analysts have questioned whether this year's gas price collapse in Europe and Asia could force U.S. exporters to cancel LNG cargoes this summer after mostly mild weather over the winter left massive amounts of gas in storage. In 2020, at least 175 LNG shipments were canceled due to oversupply and weak demand. But for now, most analysts say energy security concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 should keep global gas prices high enough to sustain record U.S. LNG exports in 2023. Gas was trading near a 21-month low of around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and near a 22-month low of $12 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Even though TTF gas prices were down about 50% and JKM was down about 61% so far this year, traders said those prices were high enough to feed demand for U.S. LNG exports. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Apr 28 Apr 21 Apr 28 average (Forecast) (Actual) Apr 28 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 52 79 72 78 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,061 2,009 1,556 1,722 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 19.7% 22.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Day Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.20 2.21 8.16 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 11.87 12.28 28.96 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 11.50 11.55 22.70 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Day Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 73 85 77 90 83 U.S. GFS CDDs 73 69 85 63 66 U.S. GFS TDDs 146 154 162 153 149 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.7 102.1 102.4 96.0 89.1 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.1 7.2 7.3 9.4 7.7 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 108.8 109.3 109.6 105.4 96.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.6 5.4 5.1 6.0 5.2 U.S. LNG Exports 13.9 13.2 12.7 12.2 7.0 U.S. Commercial 8.0 7.4 5.7 6.6 5.7 U.S. Residential 10.3 9.5 6.4 7.9 6.7 U.S. Power Plant 29.9 28.4 30.3 27.8 27.5 U.S. Industrial 22.3 21.8 21.1 21.2 21.3 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 7.7 74.3 70.5 70.7 68.4 Total U.S. Demand 99.3 95.0 90.5 91.7 82.9 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended May 5 Apr 28 Apr 21 Apr 14 Apr 7 Wind 16 12 17 15 16 Solar 5 4 5 5 4 Hydro 8 7 7 7 7 Other 3 3 3 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 7 39 37 38 38 Coal 13 16 14 14 15 Nuclear 20 19 18 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Prior Day Day Henry Hub 2.12 2.24 Transco Z6 New York 1.84 2.13 PG&E Citygate 4.87 4.74 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.70 1.88 Chicago Citygate 1.98 2.10 Algonquin Citygate 2.17 2.43 SoCal Citygate 4.00 4.00 Waha Hub 1.52 1.46 AECO 1.57 1.65 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Prior Day Day New England 28.75 32.50 PJM West 37.50 33.00 Ercot North 35.00 29.50 Mid C 30.00 50.00 Palo Verde 30.25 46.00 SP-15 32.25 37.75 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis)