Economist who helped discover predictive powers of bond market says there’s no sign of recession right now

Arturo Estrella, a former economist at the New York Federal Reserve, says the yield curve between the 10-year note and the 3-month T-bill is not flat enough to predict a recession next year. The economist co-authored several important research papers on the predictive powers of the yield curve. Call it "the unbearable flatness of yields" or "the trouble with the curve." However one cares to describe it, the slope of the Treasury yield curve has been the subject of much concern of late, as regards the future direction of the economy.