When Buying a Cyclical Stock, Is Price or Time More Important?

Conclusion: My point is this: When I hear people say they are happy to pay 12.5 times for Apple, you have to put that into context of WHEN Apple will start reaccelerating its growth to make that valuation is worth it. Buying too far ahead of an earnings/cyclical trough is very dangerous, UNLESS the price gives you some major cover by just getting too cheap to ignore. But beware that gulf before growth starts again. Time usually should be your guide.