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Toronto, Vancouver may be sole job generators for 2015, but don’t discount Alberta yet

Toronto, Vancouver may be sole job generators for 2015, but don’t discount Alberta yet

Much has been made of the recent commentary from BMO chief economist Douglas Porter highlighting the fact that Vancouver and Toronto – which collectively account for 25 per cent of jobs in Canada – were the sole workhorses responsible for the country’s employment gains last year.

But if Statistics Canada’s Job Vacancy and Wage survey for the fourth quarter of 2015 is any indicator, just because oil is down, doesn’t mean Alberta takes a back seat in the job growth department.

“British Columbia has been one of the strongest economies over the last four or five years,” says Mike Moffatt, an economist and assistant professor at Western University’s Ivey Business School.

“But one of the other surprising things is that Alberta is still up there, as far as job vacancy, despite everything that has gone on in the oil and gas sector – they’re still above the Canadian average.”

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Throughout the 76 economic regions in Canada, Banff–Jasper–Rocky Mountain House, Alberta, boasted the highest job vacancy rate at 3.6 per cent.

“It looks like a lot of the big vacancies they’re talking about is things like retail and transportation, though you still would think the slowdown of Alberta’s economy (would create) more pushback there but clearly not,” says Moffatt.

Province-wide, British Columbia had the highest job vacancy rate at 2.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2015, followed closely by Nunavut, the Northwest Territories and the Yukon at 2.6 per cent. Alberta stood at 2.5 per cent compared to Ontario at 2.4 per cent, which has performed well thanks to a boost in the manufacturing sector. Quebec had the lowest rate at 1.6 per cent.

Across the board, lower paying jobs boasted the highest number of vacancies, with retail salespeople and food-counter industries at 64,000 and 48,000 positions available respectively. Jobs in the accommodation and food services sector had the country’s lowest wages at $12.20, compared to the average of $18.95. Retail didn’t offer much more at $12.70, however, Statistics Canada pointed out that both these sectors often have a higher portion of part-time work.

“Sectors with a lot of turnover will tend to have higher job vacancy rates (but we’ve also) seen over the last 20 or 30 years with more and more kids going into higher education, sometimes it’s harder to fill those spots,” explains Moffatt.

Areas with the lowest amount of jobs include: government workers, particularly public administration, and education services.

“They’re two of the bottom four, which I think shows that government, particularly provincially, has pulled back on hiring somewhat,” explains Moffatt.

“We are in somewhat of an age of austerity, so there aren’t as many job openings as there used to be in schools and public administration.”

Mining and quarrying, as well as oil and gas extraction, also fell near the bottom of job generation, but Moffatt suspects a lift in oil prices could boost vacancies in this sphere.

“One of the first things companies do if they want to expand production is start looking for workers,” says Moffatt. “That’s why jobs are one of the leading indicators – once things start to turn around, we tend to see job vacancy numbers burst.”