BlackBerry stock seesaws ahead of earnings report

Watching BlackBerry stock action has been a little bit like watching my kid on a seesaw: I hang on and watch as he giddily enjoys the ride up, but often has a wary look coming down.

In BlackBerry's case, the moves have been largely due to media and analysts’ notes around BlackBerry's Z10 debut in the U.S. And if you're looking for more rational guidance for how to play it forward, Thursday's fourth quarter results may not be of much help.

That's largely because the earnings won't include the impact of the all-important U.S. market. Nor will the results contain the reaction to Q10, which is widely expected to be released in April. In other words, it's going to be months before the make-or-break venture can be fully digested and analyzed.

But that might not be such a bad thing. Since its glitzy launch in late January, tech analysts and investors have been watching the company's every move. And for good reason. The BB10 products are seen as make-or-break for the Waterloo, Ont.-based company.

Which is why the U.S. launch last week appeared to be so disappointing for many people. With little fanfare or promotion, the AT&T launch paled in comparison to the mostly positive hype in Canada and the U.K.

"I think the seesaw has been driven as much on anticipation as it has on fact. There's certainly been a lot of anticipation about Research in Motion. Will the new handsets be the savior for the company?" said David Andrews, director, investment and research at Richardson GMP, which has some $15 billion in assets under management.

Widely reported this week were the views of Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski, who cut her rating on BlackBerry stock to neutral on Monday.

"Our retail checks at over 20 store locations since March 22, including at AT&T , Best Buy , and RadioShack , revealed a surprising lack of marketing support and poor positioning of the product," Ms. Jankowski said in a research note this week. "We also saw limited advertising around the launch."

Other Wall Street analysts have come to similar conclusions, which helped send the stock down some 12 per cent since it launched on Friday in the U.S. On Tuesday afternoon, the stock had recovered some of those losses.

The Z10 and new operating system is crucial to the company's turnaround plan as rivals like Apple's iPhone, Samsung Electronics Co's Galaxy and other devices powered by Google's Android operating system swarm. All eyes are will remain on BlackBerry as it continues its roll out in the U.S. this week.

Andrews noted very few analysts have a "buy" rating on the stock, with many possibly gun shy after sticking their necks out before only to get burned in the end. Any nugget of guidance from the company on Thursday will be helpful.

Reuters reported analysts, on average, expect BlackBerry to report a loss of 29 cents a share in the period on sales of $2.8 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Wall Street is expecting sales of about 1 million Z10 devices in the quarter, the news agency said.

But it'll be at least another several months before the picture becomes clearer, said Andrews. "That's when you're going to start to see either the positive or the negative impact of the handset launch and the resulting sales globally including the United States," he said.

So, hang on for a while. Enjoy the ride.