'If President Trump loses North Carolina, it's hard to see how he'll win a second term': Washington policy analyst

Primaries in 8 states and Washington, D.C. took place last night, with voters in Washington facing long lines and a curfew. Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi discuss with Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills.

Video Transcript

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: The first major test of voting under this new normal took place last night, and it was not without issues. There were primaries in eight states and Washington, DC. And in Washington and elsewhere, voters face long lines and, of course, a curfew.

Let's bring in Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James. Ed, good to see you again. So you saw what took place last night. In your mind, did the system hold up, and what does it tell you about the future, perhaps the way we're going to be voting come November for president?

ED MILLS: Yeah, I think it was a test run for November. What I saw is strong turnout but not nearly as big of a turnout that you will see in November. So there is a number of things that we have to work on to make sure that voting actually occurs without a major hitch in November.

And I also saw when counting started, it was slow, especially in Pennsylvania, a large state that's going to be a key determinant on who is going to be the next president. So as I sit here this morning, I wonder if I wake up the day after the election in November and know who is president.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: What about one race in particular? Iowa Republican Congressman Steve King, long history of racist remarks that he's made. Lost his long-held House seat in that Republican primary. What does that tell you, if anything, about the GOP party right now?

ED MILLS: Yeah, so I think there were a couple of takeaways there. One, the party in the last couple of years stripped Congressman King of all of his committee assignments, and it wasn't a race about his statements. It was a race in a district that is extremely conservative that backed President Trump by 30 percentage points, but it was a race based upon because he didn't have committee assignments, he could not stand up for the president. And by electing someone else who will, more likely than not, be a Republican in November, that individual can go and defend the priorities of the district. When they have tried to attack him on his racist and anti-immigrant statements, that has not caused him to lose in the past.

Elsewhere, Republicans are highlighting that there were five women nominated for their party, trying to rebuild the number of females' congressional seats that are out there. And that, I think, what Republicans say are a key building block if they are to win the majority.

BRIAN SOZZI: Ed, really interested in getting your thoughts on former vice president Joe Biden. The mood out there, very forceful speech yesterday. I think it was well-- it was well received. But do you think he's being bold enough right now to inspire voters to get out there and vote come November?

ED MILLS: You know, this election is presenting a challenge unlike any other election. And, you know, I don't know what the playbook is supposed to be. So comparing it to kind of past presidential elections, you'd certainly see all candidates being far less kind of out in the public, having public gatherings. You know, when you have a pandemic that spreads person to person, it's hard to me to kind of really come up and say, oh, this person should be doing more of this or less than that. You know, I think that the voters are going to make up that decision. I don't think kind of the decisions that he's making today necessarily either guarantees a win or a loss, Brian.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: And last night President Trump tweeted that he's going to move the Republican convention out of North Carolina. He had threatened to do this. Now he says he's going to do it. He was upset with the governor there, saying the governor was putting restrictions on how many people could gather for the convention amid the coronavirus pandemic. So where else might this convention take place?

ED MILLS: It's a great question, Alexis. You know, I think that the immediate response I have there is that North Carolina-- if the president does not win North Carolina, it's hard to see how he wins a second term. So I want to see how that plays out in the state. Does it energize the base, or does it show, you know, with swing voters that the president is leaving the state? You know, there has been speculation that it could be moved to another kind of state that's with a Republican governor who would maybe allow kind of a higher gathering or potentially onto a Trump property.

You know, I do think that the civil unrest that we see raises the question as to how much either party wants a large-scale convention. You know, we have a lot of parallels to 1968 that are going out there. Having a convention with civil unrest certainly is not something that would help out either candidate win in November.

BRIAN SOZZI: ED, so many-- so many folks I talk to on the Street right now, they're making money on the long side, but they're surprised at this market's resilience in the face of everything happening in this country, and they're thinking that the market is sniffing out another catalyst. And do you think they're sniffing out a new stimulus package this summer? What are you hearing down in DC of whether that can get passed?

ED MILLS: Yeah, Brian, that's a great question. What we've been doing here at Raymond James is we host a weekly call with our institutional investors and we ask them about their bullish sentiment, their bearish sentiment, and we have seen a consistent bearish sentiment in those weekly calls, but it is coming off.

And I do think what you're seeing here is that we have had an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. And I do think this month we will get at least one more. There is a growing sense in Washington, DC, that this could be the last big one, maybe one additional smaller package post Labor Day to boost the economy heading into the election.

But when you see kind of all of the kind of economic numbers-- you highlighted the ADP number out this morning. You look at kind of when we passed the CARES Act in March. That was supposed to last through about June. States start their fiscal year on July 1. We have a crisis in the economy, and we have a deadline, especially when it comes to states. That's normally when Congress acts, and I expect them to do so within the next couple of weeks.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: All right, Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, always a pleasure. Thanks for coming on.

ED MILLS: Thanks.