Warning signs for Trump in November

What the polls are saying about the 2020 election

Video Transcript

RICK NEWMAN: From Yahoo Finance, this is "Electionomics." I'm Rick Newman.

ALEXIS CHRISTOPHOROUS: And I'm Alexis Christoforous. Welcome to another edition of "Electionomics," where we are broadcasting, once again, from our respective homes. Thanks so much for being with us. Joining Rick Newman and myself today is Stanley Greenberg. He's a democratic pollster who has worked with Bill Clinton and Nelson Mandela, a who's who list. He's also the author of "RIP GOP." And today, we're going to talk about this pandemic and its ongoing effects on the 2020 election as we inch closer to November.

Stan, it's so good to have you with us. Let me begin by asking you about Joe Biden. I mean, we sort of forget we have an election going on-- the backdrop to this pandemic. We haven't heard a lot about Biden. According to your latest polls, how is he doing?

STANLEY GREENBERG: Well, thank you for having me. Thank you for including me in this new format. I may like it better than actually getting together and seeing you in the studio. But we talked before-- but this has really become an extraordinary election, but become even more extraordinary, given the pandemic. I can't believe the chapters that we now have to play through-- have already played through-- before we even get to a November election.

We have a primary that Biden triumphed, had momentum. But it all got delayed by the pandemic-- the postponing of the actual votes. Sanders hasn't endorsed. And so we have a very inconclusive primary. You have Biden being pushed out of the spotlight by the president being on everyday dealing with the crisis and very much of it shifting to how Trump is handling the crisis. And that, too, has changed, and people are very obviously focused on their own lives and their own families. So he's out of the spotlight.

I-- the structure of the election, amazingly, has not changed. I mean, I trust voters to kind of make some very big judgments about the state of the country. I believe voters were in revolt against President Trump and they were acting on it at every chance they had. I think that we put on pause, but every poll I'm looking at shows the election totally stable. The vote that we did in a poll that finished on Monday was stable. The vote for Congress was stable. There were actually a little better for the Democrats, but basically, stable.

So I think voters will just pause on that. And then when they get past the crisis and if we get to a point in May when we're getting back, I think they will re-engage. And I think the structure of the race will continue. But it obviously will matter how the president handles it. And the president has the spotlight. And that will be the most important piece for him.

RICK NEWMAN: Stan, I get your research and I have been interested in your findings in the battleground states we. On this podcast, we do focus a lot on the swing states or the battleground states. And even on a relatively small number of voters-- swing voters in the swing states that we think are going to determine the outcome of the election, so your recent polling seems to have shown that Biden is pretty strong in the swing states, right?

ALEXIS CHRISTOPHOROUS: Yes. Bernie is not. I mean, Sander-- you know, you look at Sanders in those swing states, he only matches Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016. But Biden was running about five points stronger than Trump in those states. That's a six point swing, you know, in those states. That would translate into a pretty good electoral college victory. And his actually, biggest problem was consolidating Democrats.

Democrats-- Sanders voters are very much-- somewhere around 3/4 of them are voting for him in a general election. But Democrats are not consolidated. They are still fractured. And that's still one of the big factors in how-- in my view, how big Biden wins.

RICK NEWMAN: So if your polls are showing Biden with, let's say, something like a five percentage point lead, does a-- does a lead in a-- like, if the election were tomorrow, would that strongly suggest that Biden would win by five percentage points?

STANLEY GREENBERG: No, that's-- what we're looking at there is the battleground states. You know, Donald Trump won that these battleground-- 16 battleground states by--

RICK NEWMAN: Can you just-- can you just name some of them so everybody knows?

STANLEY GREENBERG: Sure, yes. Yes, you're dealing, obviously, with-- you're dealing with Maine. You're dealing with New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, you know, Iowa. You go to North Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida. Go over to the west, you go to Colorado, Nevada, Arizona. I may have missed a state there. Does not include Texas. It doesn't include, obviously, you know, the big-- the big states of New York and California that are not competitive and Texas, which actually might be competitive, but we didn't include it.

But if you look at those states, Hillary Clinton lost them by one. She won the national vote by two. So these states are a little bit more Republican. And so if you look at the swing in this vote, Trump won it by one. He's winning-- Biden winning it by four or five if you squeeze to a two party election. That represents a five point swings. That meant, like, if Hillary won by two nationally, that would translate into seven nationally.

So it's not like nine points that Democrats have been winning in the midterm elections. It's not quite there, because to be honest, Democrats are still pretty divided. There are a lot of Sanders voters who are not yet consolidated. You know, the biggest problem aren't swing voters. The Republican Party has been shedding voters-- they've been driving voters away. I've been trying to tell this story, but people are so focused on the rallies, the campaign rallies, they think, well, look, these voters still are for Trump. Well, those are the campaign rallies. They're not where the real voters.

If you look at white working class voters in the midterm elections, you know, he lost them-- the swing was 13 or 14 points where he lost his margin amongst those key voters. And the women have continued to move against him. So it's actually become a fairly close race with the women. And they are a majority of the white working class.

And so there's been a revolt against Trump that people just haven't paid attention to. There are less Republicans about three points in terms of people identifying as Republican. And they're becoming independents. And so the independents are heavily voting democratic. But the other piece is-- and I didn't believe this was happening. This is the biggest surprise for me in the election.

I thought these voters, the moderate Republicans and the McCain Republicans, who have pulled away from the Republican Party because this is a Tea Party Trump party-- they had pulled away-- I thought maybe by November that they would vote for Biden or dependent on the candidate the Democrats ran. But they're voting in the Democratic primaries. So if you look at Michigan, at the most, like, the most Republican towns, there's been this 45% increase in turnout in Republican towns and townships in Michigan terms voting in the Democratic primary. And so this revolt against Trump, you know, has carried through from the moment he came into office.

And every election [INAUDIBLE] play it out and the margins get bigger, it's paused. And we'll have to wait to see, look, if Trump really impressed people, really took control of the government, reached out to work out with Democrats and Republicans, in some ways, apologized for the things that he didn't get right, tried to unite the country, tried to unite the country behind a new deal to bring the country out of this. But none of that's happening. He's acting like the same Donald Trump. There just isn't any evidence that, you know-- that he's winning over swing voters. And his approval rating in most of the public polls now has kind of fallen back to where it was before the crisis.

RICK NEWMAN: So Stan, just to clarify--

ALEXIS CHRISTOPHOROUS: [INAUDIBLE] for a second, Stan, because I think it's always-- it was always going to be a referendum on Trump. I think we knew that from the get go. But, you know, in many ways, this pandemic could either help his chances or hurt his chances. What are you seeing in the polls right now with the way America is responding to his response to this pandemic? And is there enough time there to change the tide between now and when we do go to the polls in the general election?

STANLEY GREENBERG: Right. Look, I agree with you that this was about Trump. I mean, this was people-- that's what's motivating people, that's what's pushing people away from Republican Party. And I thought Trump was in a lot of trouble all along the way, even on the economic issues, because at a personal level, people are still struggling and actually didn't believe his exaggerated view that things have never been better for them and their family.

But the pandemic has changed that, but it doesn't necessarily help him, because now it's a question of, well, who can handle this kind of crisis? And so a comparison then becomes important. But I agree with you-- it's now moved just about Trump to, I think, now a comparison of how Trump doing versus the person who would replace him.

RICK NEWMAN: Stan, let me ask about Joe Biden's vulnerabilities here now. He still has to deal with Bernie Sanders to some extent, so he is not, you know, getting all the advantages of being the Democratic nominee yet. Presumably, he will if something unforeseen does not happen. But he doesn't-- you know-- you know the raps against Biden. He doesn't excite people. He doesn't have a strong appeal to young voters. Turnout might be lower than it would be with a rabble rouser like Bernie Sanders. What about those vulnerabilities?

STANLEY GREENBERG: Well, the-- look, sometimes, the candidate is right for the time and you just don't get it. You know, the-- you know, I worked for Ehud Barak, you know, when he was running you know in Israel. He was a military person. It was awful on TV. And he would just say what he thought. At one point, he was asked, you know, if the-- if you were born in the Palestinian territories, you know, how would-- how would your attitude be different? And he said, well, I might have been a terrorist had I grown up in the Palestinian territories.

And, like, for six months, you know, in the polling, he just was even considered a legitimate candidate. But you reach a point in time, and, you know what, being that kind of, you know, blunt military person is right for the time, given Israel, given a particular point in time when you want a certain kind of leader. And so, you know, Biden with his experience, given you everything that's happened here in this mess of handling the pandemic, it just may be right, you know, for the time.

And we'll see how he picks a vice president. He said it will be a woman. You know, will that unite the party, will that create excitement? I think the challenge is, do you actually have a convention? Do you have-- you know, do you have-- do you have those things that enable you to help unite and motivate? I think the voters are self-motivating. We've had historic turnout. And we've had historic turnout for Biden.

You know, if you look at what happened ultimately in the suburban areas and other areas, and also, you know, working class areas, they had big turnouts in the primary-- historically high turnout, you know, in order to you know to make the kind of change the country wants. I think they will get excited and united, ultimately, around Biden. But you have to go through a process of finishing the primaries. And it's hard, because it's been extended. But I wouldn't assume that once you get to that moment, you know, why wouldn't he able to unite the party, which has Trump, as, you know, as a motivator?

Having a real convention, I think, will be very important for him. But, you know, it's uncertain. I think Trump will push very hard for him to have a real convention, because it would be a real judgment about his presidency if he couldn't have the convention. So they will have the convention. So I think it'll be a lot of pressure on Democrats to hold their convention, as well. And I think Biden needs it, as well.

ALEXIS CHRISTOPHOROUS: You know, Stan, what about-- because I saw in some of your research and your polling that the Democrats could actually take back the Senate. Do you see that being a scenario where they get control of Congress, but Biden doesn't win? That Trump is president, but Congress swings Democratic?

STANLEY GREENBERG: No. Look, the-- people are-- there is such straight ticket voting going on right now. There is no way you're going to have a reversal, you know, switching that result when you get to the Senate. So I think it'll be a pressure toward straight ticket voting. I think, you know, whoever wins the presidency, I think-- I don't think the house is going to switch, you know? The suburban swing is so strong. And it got stronger.

If you look at what happened in the midterms, if you look at what happened in 2019 and in those elections in Virginia, Democrats made even more suburban gains. So, you know, every trend has continued right through the presidency. So I don't see any kind of reversal in the House, because that's where they've made their biggest gains. And the president will depend-- you know, that will determine the Senate. I think the Democrats have a 50-50 chance on the Senate. That's only if they're winning the presidency.

RICK NEWMAN: Can you describe what it will-- where will be the battle for the Senate turn?

STANLEY GREENBERG: Well, I mean, if you look at the these results, I think-- I think Maine and Colorado, you have the Republicans in the biggest problem. And then-- and then you obviously need to get-- I think it's Arizona and North Carolina are going to be the big moments that would-- that would flip it. You know, if you look at Arizona, the Democrats are looking pretty good in that race, the pretty independent candidate is doing well. But North Carolina, that's a pretty unpopular incumbent. So I mean, I think that's the front line-- North Carolina, Colorado. [INAUDIBLE].

RICK NEWMAN: So Stan, I want to ask you about the economy and how that is likely to factor in. So we've seen some research recently that says-- suggests the economy is a little less important to voters than it has been in the past. It's not necessarily the economy is stupid anymore. But that was before-- before we the coronavirus recession. So on election day, we could have-- I mean, the unemployment rate in swing states could be several and probably will be several points higher than it is now. Would that inherently work against the incumbent, Trump? That would be the conventional wisdom, right?

STANLEY GREENBERG: I think so. But I mean, it's not just conventional wisdom. If you look at the academic literature, it is change in median income in the two quarters prior to the election is the translation of the economy. There isn't actually a very strong correlation between full employment and employment level and votes for president. It's changes in the economy-- whether income is going up or down. And I think it's more likely they're going to be struggling with declining income, declining median income, and faltering employment.

And so I think that's going to make it a lot harder for the president. I think he already had it very difficult, because he's running on a whole range of issues in which he is out of step with the country. You know, this has become a pro-immigration country, a pro-trade country. I mean, on almost every issue that the president identifies, the country has become much more conscious of what it believes as a country. Immigration is, like, the most important for them. I mean, the president wants to close borders, blame China. Wants to build the a wall in the middle of his press conference. You know, even though-- in the last few days, he will talk about the wall is one of these accomplishments and one of the things that are important to him. As well as talking about having stopped the movement, you know, from Mexico.

Well, the polling that we've finished this week shows that people have an incredibly negative view of the border wall. People believe immigration benefits the country and they've come to believe this in very large numbers in reaction against Trump. And so he's still running as an anti-immigrant president, who wants to close the border, limit trade. On oil, he's talking about tariffs. He's talked about a whole range of things that are actually, the countries against. As he's become pro-tariffs, the country has become very pro-free trade in reaction against everything he's doing on the trade war and dealing with China.

So, you know, once it moves off the economy, you know, what kind of country we are, whether we're a diverse country, and accept the fact-- our immigrant history. Or whether we're open to the world or not or engaging with the world or not or leading the world or not, he is out of step with the country. And that's why the coalitions of formed against him. It's why he's lost so many Republicans.

And he is getting it back to the economy, but in a way that disadvantages him. It potentially advantaged him, but, you know, people on the edge still struggling with the cost of before the crisis. We're still struggling with cost of housing, and child care, and almost everything else. And they were not you know standing up and applauding when he would give these speeches about America being at the greatest point ever. But now he has an economy that will hurt him, But know based, on the history of how the economy affects voting.

ALEXIS CHRISTOPHOROUS: But Stan, could possibly people look at it this way-- hey, we had a pretty strong economy before this pandemic. We had a nice stock market rally and a strong economy in the years that he was in office. Perhaps a change in administration would be too disruptive to the economy and to the country at such a fragile moment in our history? Might there be people thinking that way? And could that not advantage Trump?

STANLEY GREENBERG: Well, look, it's not the way it's worked, you know, if we look at the academic literature. That is-- people have a pretty short time horizon to the extent to which they vote the economy. It's over a short time horizon. They don't vote-- you know, they don't vote the history. Look, how much trouble you know the Bill Clinton had getting a strong economy translate. Took him to his re-election. So four years before he really, you know, got credit for that-- to a very strong economy. And then went further into the presidency.

But it-- you know, it's hard. People haven't-- you know, am I making gains now? And my now is the last six months. You know, they're not-- they do not have a longer time frame on it. If we're looking about-- there are a lot of things affect their vote, but if you're looking about the economy, it is the short term impact on their median income.

RICK NEWMAN: So Stan, what you're saying, I think, will be heartening to Democrats, who look at what's going on-- I mean, there are some Democrats who cannot believe Trump even still has a 42 or 45% approval rating overall, when he's close to 50% in terms of his handling of the coronavirus crisis, even though that may have come down a little bit recently. How do you explain that Trump at least has that much popularity? And just also, for our audience to understand, since you work-- since you have worked for Democrats, how do people know that this is not just wishful thinking?

STANLEY GREENBERG: Well, first of all, I'm focused on elections, OK? But I'm looking at polling, obviously, very closely-- I'm a pollster. But I'm looking at actual elections and what's happened in election after election. And not fluky election, because one party was excited, and had high turnout, and the other low turnout.

What you looked at is historic turnout. In the elections, one year after it came in-- if you look at what happened in Virginia, initially in 2017, you had the midterm election was at the highest midterm election in the history of the country. And the Democrats won by 8.6%. And then you looked at the end of, 2019 where you had the elections in Virginia again, where all the suburban trends continued-- you looked at him campaigning in Kentucky and Louisiana, and Democrats winning the governors races in those states with him campaigning with historically high turnout. And in every case, the suburban trend continued.

And so what I'm looking in the polls is, yes, but they are-- I would pause, obviously, and separate my thinking if it wasn't-- if voters weren't acting on what they're saying. And also-- it's also not just what they're saying about voting. It's what their attitudes are. You know, look at views of immigration. He's made immigration his top issue. So he ran on it. That's who-- he announced his candidacy on dealing with Mexican immigration.

If you look at the policies in office, every day, it's been an escalation-- what he did on the border, separation of kids at the border, the border wall. He still talks about it now as, you know, what is the evidence of his progress and achieving. He is running against immigration as a presidency.

So at the same time that that is happening, the country has gone from about having half think immigration benefits the country to about 2/3. And, you know, they are-- it's not just what they're saying about voting. It's about what they believe. And if somebody who runs campaigns, if you were trying to make this a choice on immigration, one party's pro-immigration, one party is anti-immigration, the country has gone from 50% pro immigration to 2/3, well, you're running up against a huge barrier against your election on how you're defining the election. What you're pointing to is your accomplishment. What you're pointing to is your accomplishment is what people view is why they're voting against you.

And so in area after area, he's just become out of sync with a changing country-- their demographic trends, as well. But it's more a trend in consciousness of what people are thinking and how that's affecting what the election is about.

RICK NEWMAN: Stan, very short question and short answer, hopefully. Who do you think he's going to win in November and by how much?

STANLEY GREENBERG: Well, look, I think Biden-- Joe Biden, you know, obviously going to be the nominee. I think the party will unite. I don't know who the vice president selection will be. The Sanders voters were a huge part of what held him from winning. 15% of Sanders voted for another candidate. I think that's probably the most important piece. But I can see Biden winning by seven or eight points nationally. That would put him way beyond Obama's 2008 win. And that would put him in to have a strong electoral college win, as well.

ALEXIS CHRISTOPHOROUS: All right, we're going to leave it there, gentlemen. Much more to discuss as we move closer to November. I want to thank our guest, Stan Greenberg, democratic pollster, and author of our "RIP GOP" for joining us. Rick, good to see you and your bow tie. Be sure to check us out and follow me @AlexisTVNews.

RICK NEWMAN: Oh, I'm supposed to say something.

ALEXIS CHRISTOPHOROUS: [INAUDIBLE] jump in here, Rick.

RICK NEWMAN: And me @RickJNewman. I blame the technology format.

ALEXIS CHRISTOPHOROUS: Yeah, Yeah. Thanks, everybody, for checking in. Stay safe, be well. And I'll see you next time.