Pascal Siakam's PPG average, Scottie Barnes' 3P% and other Over/Unders

Amit Mann and Imman Adan look into the future and discuss how some over/unders will play out, including where the Toronto Raptors will finish in defensive rating and how many wins they'll end the season with.

Video Transcript

AMIT MANN: Remember back in the day, beginning of the season, we were told that the Raptors-- the over under for them was 37.5 wins this season?

IMMAN ADAN: I do.

AMIT MANN: Seems kind of far fetched. Right now, they're 11 and 13. If they were to go 500 the rest of the season, they would finish 40 and 42. So obviously, I think that's going to happen. So I'm going to ask you this-- will they finish with more or less wins than the number 43? Over, under.

IMMAN ADAN: This is actually probably one of the tougher ones for me. And only because-- beginning of the season I would have told you yes. But what I've kind of been reminded as this season has gone on is how thin they are. I keep saying this-- you have to wrap Fred VanVleet in bubble wrap. You have to make sure that he's playing so many minutes right now.

It's so scary, but any extended time with Fred VanVleet out, or I think just, like, like OG Anunoby-- is also just-- how long is he going to be out for. I think the Raptors have been able to kind of sit still. They were struggling. They weren't really sustaining it, but we're kind of starting to see them play well. It's because the Raptors are kind of deep on the wings.

But with Fred specifically, I think it's going to be really, really difficult. But you know what I'm only going to put positivity into the universe. So in my vision, Fred VanVleet is healthy for 82 games, or whatever the remaining games are. I know he's missed some already. So, if that is the case, and I'm operating under the assumption that Fred and Pascal are going to be healthy and Khem Burch comes back soon. Then I'm going to say "yes," because I think that good.

But, woo! My gosh. If any-- if--

AMIT MANN: I know--

IMMAN ADAN: --Misses any time, it's, it's--

AMIT MANN: Yeah. Just so everyone's clear, to get to 43 wins, they would have to go 33 and 25 for the rest of the season. And they have-- according to strength of schedule, they have the 13th toughest. Now, that can fluctuate. You know, one team does well that is currently below it, kind of low on that totem pole, then obviously that changes quite a bit. But probably they're around the middle portion of the NBA when it comes to the toughest schedule for going forward.

I'm with you. I think they kind of get there. Again, December vibes-- just positivity, Christmas, you got Christmas photos with the family today. I'm just all positivity at the moment, so I'm going to say they do get to 43 wins, and, you know, maybe they get a little bit more than that. How about that?

IMMAN ADAN: If everybody's healthy, I'm going to say yeah.

AMIT MANN: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. That's true. If they don't get injuries to particular players, I think they'll get there. It's probably-- yeah. Probably the best way to put it. Pascal Siakam-- over under 23 points per game this season. Currently he is at 19.1. His career high is 22.9, which was in the 2019-2020 season. Yeah. What are your thoughts? 23 points per game-- is he above it or below it?

IMMAN ADAN: Kind of where he's at for the last three games or so-- I was just looking. So when we're talking about this sort of uptick in the Raptors-- part of that has come with Pascal. I think he's going to be very close. I think he's going to be around that 21 to 23 mark-- somewhere around there. So if he misses it, I don't think it's going to be by a substantial margin. But I think 23 is on the high end of that. So I think being conservative, I'd probably go under, but I think he'll hit around his career mark.

AMIT MANN: I think I'm with you on that. And just simply because I think the Raptors are a pretty good offensive team. I think they have got a lot of weapons. And it would be-- it's important that they give everyone a chance to eat their food. That's all, right? Let's split this pie really nicely. Let's get everyone a piece of it. This coconut cream is really good. Everyone get your piece and enjoy it.

And with that in mind, he is not going to be given, you know, A1 possessions every single game. He'll have his moments. But then Scottie's going to have his moments. And then OG's going to have his moments. And then if a team is going to drop coverage, hey, guess what?

Fred VanVleet's going to go off for 35 points. That's the reality. You play to win the games. That's what they talk about. And because of that, I don't think he gets there, but I think he's going to be very efficient, and I do think he's going to have some great games against elite teams, because I think that's what everyone's kind of waiting for.

They want to see him do it against some really good teams. The Wizards are cool. The Kings are cool, but do it against one of the Eastern Conference, Western Conference elites. That's what we're kind of looking for. I mean, some people-- that's what probably get people off his back just a little bit.

Scottie Barnes is currently shooting 36% from three. Over his past three games, he's shooting 43%. So my question for you is, is he going to finish below or higher than 36% from three for the season?

IMMAN ADAN: I'm going to say below.

AMIT MANN: Ah.

IMMAN ADAN: I'm sad-- I'm sad to be a bummer on this. But here's the thing-- I don't think it's going to be for a bad reason. I think it's going to be because he's going to be asked to take a lot more. I think Nick Nurse is going to say "keep shooting." And as long as Nick Nurse says, "keep shooting," and he's putting it up-- because I would rather him take a ton and have a lower percentage than him only take, like, one or two a game, and average 6% from deep.

So, to me, it's, like, OK, the shooting percentage-- I hope that that improves over time. It's his rookie year. As long as he feels confident taking it and he continues to take it, and not in a Chris Boucher, I'm going to hijack every opportunity to take a three, but especially getting catch and shoot opportunities a lot, I think of it.

We're going to see just a lot of opportunities for him where he's not-- I guess I don't want him to force it too much. Like, I don't want him going to like pull up in transition and take a three. I don't want him to continue to go down. I don't want him to, like, do too much off the dribble. I want it to really kind of be in motion-- catch and shoot, if he's open in the corner, if the ball swings to him, get it.

He's still not a good enough shooter that I think he can do that consistently and be over 36 if he is taking a heavy volume of them, and I would prefer the volume right now, at least.

AMIT MANN: I hear you. I'm going to say that I think he does stay there, I think, because I think his mechanics are that much better. And because of that, I think a lot of his shots are going to be open. So I feel like he will get there, and, you know, again, the last four games-- 43%. The shot is kind of there. And I feel like as long as he's OK with shooting from multiple spots on the court, guys, you know, usually, a lot of them like their corners. A lot of them like top of the key. Some of the 45s, maybe not so much, because they're a little bit deeper on the court.

But if he's comfortable across the court, and it seems like he is aspiring to be comfortable across the court, I think he could get there. And I think it would be a game changer for the Raptors' offense, because you have that many guys with that kind of size that can shoot the three at that high of a clip, ay. There we go, there we go, there we go.

Finally-- defensive rating over under top five. So I guess this would be the one where it would be opposite, under, over, but will the Raptors have a top five offense at the end of the season? Yes?

IMMAN ADAN: You said offense, right?

AMIT MANN: Sorry. Sorry. Defense. My bad.

IMMAN ADAN: OK. I was gonna say-- offense? No.

AMIT MANN: Apologies.

IMMAN ADAN: So I really did struggle with this, only because, once again, I know that I said they would get to 43 regardless of what, like-- I just-- I mean, I put a caveat on there, but still. I think with defense it's a little bit harder. Because going through it, I'm, like, who are they going to knock off from the top five? Right, like, I think the Warriors are going to finish there. I think the Suns are going to finish there. I think the Jazz are going to finish there. Who else do we have?

Like, the-- like, I just think it's going to be too hard to get in the top five, but I think they're going to be top ten. I think they're going to be around that sixth mark. That's probably where I think they're going to fall, just because those elite, elite teams, I think, are going to continue to remain in that top five. And I don't know that the Raptors have enough to really knock them off.

But I think they're going to be a six, seven, just because Raptors are too thin. And if anyone goes missing from their key guys-- we saw just, like, how much Utah changes things. We saw how much Khem changes things. And they're just too thin to maintain that. If everybody is healthy, maybe. But the chances that your whole entire roster is going to be healthy is very slim. So six, seven.

AMIT MANN: Yeah. Just to touch on some of the other teams-- because I have the stats right in front of me. I want to mention a few of them-- other teams-- Cavaliers, Clippers--

IMMAN ADAN: Oh, Cavaliers, yeah.

AMIT MANN: Yeah. I don't think they're going anywhere. They're going to stay there, but, like you said, I'm with you. Top, you know, top six to ten range, I think, is very possible. And if they want to have any kind of success this season, they need to be in that area anyway, so--

IMMAN ADAN: It's very difficult. I was through it, just looking at past seasons. Teams that finish in the top ten defensively-- so, forget their offensive rating. That doesn't matter as much. But teams who finish in the top ten defensively almost always make the playoffs. It's very rare instances where a team is a top ten defense that misses the playoffs. And I think that that really does bode well for the Raptors. One of the rare times was last year-- the Warriors when they lost in the play-in. So it happens, but it is fairly rare. Teams that finish in the top ten make the playoffs more often than not.