Doctor on new COVID-19 strain: 'We’ve already had a number of different mutations happen'

Dr. Manish Garg, Emergency Medicine Physician & Co-Founder of World Academic Council of Emergency Medicine, joins Yahoo Finance's Kristin Myers to break down the latest coronavirus developments as the U.K. locks down as a new virus mutation spreads.

Video Transcript

KRISTIN MYERS: I want to bring on Dr. Manish Garg, emergency medicine physician and co-founder of World Academic Council of Emergency Medicine. Dr. Garg, great to have you with us again. I want to start with this mutation news. I know that mutations are not uncommon in viruses, if I remember my high school biology correctly.

But I want to start with how really truly concerned folks should be about this mutation. I was reading some reports that it might possibly be more contagious. They don't know if it's more deadly. I was hoping you can kind of give us a little bit of the background on that.

MANISH GARG: Sure. Kristin, it's wonderful to see you again. Thank you so much for having me here. The views expressed are my own. And, Kristin, it sounds like you got an A in biology.

So I just wanted to say that, to answer your question, what we're learning about this kind of spike or new mutation-- that's happening not just in England, but it's also happening in South Africa-- it seems as though they're having about a 70%-ish increase in terms of how contagious this virus is. And what we did learn from our understanding of virology is that, generally speaking, viruses will tend to, as they kind of continue on, get a little less lethal. And we're starting to see that.

So I can certainly tell you from my own experience-- I work at three different hospitals in New York City-- I'm starting to see, again, the numbers are rising. We're at around 6.2%-ish in the state and in the city-- in the city specifically. And I'm seeing about a third to half of my patients have the virus. So we're starting to see the numbers go up in terms of what's contagious.

But what we are also seeing is that it's less lethal, which is a good sign. And it's a positive sign for us because whereas before, every patient that was in the intensive care unit was on a ventilator pretty much almost 100%, we're now seeing it at a rate of about 60%. So where it's transitioning is from a very lethal virus to something that's a little bit more to be admitted to the regular floors of our medicine units.

Now the challenge with that is, still, we can see a number of folks and hospital systems get overwhelmed by having those large numbers there. And so this certainly provides concern for us about what's happening in the UK. Thankfully, it's from my understanding, in terms of talking with my friends and my experts, that our vaccines should continue to treat this disease process.

KRISTIN MYERS: Do the mutations respond to the vaccine? So folks shouldn't necessarily be worried that this vaccine-- that the vaccines that we have out now from Pfizer and from Moderna-- won't be effective against this mutation. Correct?

MANISH GARG: Yes, that's correct. So essentially, the vaccine, when they create this, they're basically-- like, what makes it coronavirus is essentially this crown-- that shape that you see with the virus that they show the pictures of. And so even though that there is a mutation there, we've already had a number of different mutations happen with this virus. We saw a huge difference from what was in March and April with that particular strain of the virus versus what we saw later. And what we did see was that it became more contagious, a little less lethal. So I think what we're seeing is another, you know, some more evidence of another strain of this that you'll have, again, higher levels of contagiousness.

And what I like to think about, and what some of us talk about with our colleagues, is what we call the R0, where the transmissibility of this particular virus, generally speaking, it's been around the 2 to 3 range. So if you're looking at a 70% increase, that means for-- you're probably somewhere around a 3 and 1/2 to 4 range. And that's concerning. So that means for every one person that's infected, you might end up infecting four more. And that's even further evidence for us to continue to do what we know to stop the transmission of this virus.

And that would include making sure that we're wearing masks, making sure that we don't, you know, introduce bubbles and connect a lot of bubbles-- particularly, do that indoors, because that's a problem. We want to make sure that we do physically distance. And then also, we want to make sure that people have access to rapid testing, because if you have access to rapid testing, then you have a much better chance of avoiding getting this virus and knowing what your status is. And similarly, hopefully, once we can get all of our important essential personnel vaccinated, then the points at which people would connect or engage with folks out in the community, or with their physicians, would improve because those folks would be vaccinated, and it would be less likely for you to pick it up from them.

KRISTIN MYERS: Dr. Garg, I only have about 30 seconds. But would you be able to tell us what you're anticipating for January now that we have this holiday-- you know, at the end of this week-- and folks are going to want to see their, you know, their friends, their family, their loved ones? What are you anticipating in January, at least when it comes to the case count or even the death toll?

MANISH GARG: Well, we know that the cases go up. And so what's been happening, very predictably, is that when folks get together-- especially when they start mixing bubbles-- it's cold outside, people are going to be inside, there's more chances for infections to happen. And so what's happening right now in the holiday season, people are getting together. People are still flying and going from place to place. And sadly, we think that in January, there's gonna be a lot more spikes, both in terms of case counts as well as in terms of death rates.

KRISTIN MYERS: All right. Dr. Manish Garg, co-founder of the World Academic Council of Emergency Medicine. Thanks so much for joining us today.

MANISH GARG: Thank you. Have a great and safe holiday season and New Year.

KRISTIN MYERS: You, as well.