Crypto sell-off, services PMI data, tech trends: Catalysts

US markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) are under serious pressure as the major indexes contend with a major sell-off broadening out from Big Tech names and impacting even the crypto market. Seana Smith and Brad Smith guide investors through the biggest market trends and talk to Wall Street experts in today's episode of Catalysts.

Truist Co-Chief Investment Officer and chief market strategist Keith Lerner sits down with Yahoo Finance to outline the incoming "battle between fear and greed" as investors try to keep calm on the market downturn and wait for confirmation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Other top trending tickers on the Yahoo Finance platform include Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Tyson Foods (TSN), and crypto-exposed stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR).

This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

It's just after 10 a.m. here in New York City.

I'm Shana Smith alongside Brad Smith and let's dive into the catalyst moving markets today.

That's right.

We're about 30 minutes into the trading day stocks continuing their sell off here.

The dow falling over 1000 points.

S and P 500 down about 3% 2.7% right now.

30 minutes into trade and the NASDAQ composite that's down by about 3.4% right now.

So we're off of the session lows but still deep declines here trading platform, Schwab Fidelity Vanguard and Robin Hood all down amid the volatility according to the down detector.

So that's the service for all of us and the Magnificent seven leading in the tech heavy NASDAQ sharp declines here.

The Bloomberg Magnificent seven index falling to its lowest level that we've seen since or falling.

Excuse me, the biggest drop that we have seen since 2015.

Now, Invidia, the biggest laggard that's off just around 8%.

We're also seeing some heavy losses from Apple and both of those stocks off just about 5%.

That's right.

And also IM services data crossing the wires.

Now, a weak print could further stoke recession fears that have pushed the vs to the highest level in four years.

We'll discuss how the spike in volatility is impacting retail traders later on in the hour as well.

Here, I want to get to do some breaking news that we have all out at the top of the hour and that is what is on your screen right now is July US services data, the ISM index that taking higher at least from what was expected coming in at 51.4.

That was above what the forecast had been expecting here.

Business activity also rising during the month to 54.5.

You got new orders also moving to the upside employment rising to 51.1 that was versus 46.1.

You also have inventory changes that rose actually to the upside prices paid.

Also moving to the upside here.

That was up to 57 flat versus 56.3.

So again, we take a look at you July U SI SM Services rising 51.4 that's coming in just above what the street had been expected.

Yeah, the reading in July actually marking the fifth time that the composite index has been an expansion territory in 2024.

Remember before April, the servicing sector that had grown for 15 straight months following a services PM reading of 49% that was back in December of 2022.

The last contraction they note for that was in May of 2020 45.4% was the reading there.

And so ultimately, we do, uh, have a quote here as well on the prices index that registered 57% in July.

That was a 7 10% point increase from June's reading of 56.3%.

But 10 industries reporting growth in July as the services PM I has expanded in 17 of the last 19 months.

This dates back to January of 2023.

All right, let's take a look at the sell off that we're seeing play out right now on the street because we do have markets still selling off this morning.

Although I do want to point out that we're well off the lows of the session.

So here you are, you have the S and P pairing some of those earlier declines.

You now have the NASDAQ off just about 3%.

You've got the S and P 500 now back above the 5200 level, we saw the decline in equities.

We saw the drop in treasury yields.

I also wanna take a look at what we're seeing play out with the Vics because we saw the Vicks spike here as mi more volatility entering the market.

So what is this all signal about where the market, equity markets are headed for that?

We wanna bring in Keith Lerner, he's the co chief Investment officer and Chief Market strategist at Trues Keith.

It's good to see you.

So, so just give me your first thoughts on what you're seeing.

We are well off the lows of the session, but still we're seeing pretty intense pressure across the board.

Yeah, great to be with you.

I, I wish we had more green on the board.

Um, it's, it's been an ugly Monday after an ugly Friday.

So, here a big picture for us is before the sell off.

You know, our view is when you have these strong first halfs, you tend to see a pullback in the second half, around the average 9% it could be higher or lower.

So around that today, I, I do feel like on a short term basis, you know, things that it's starting to feel a little bit panicky.

You don't mention the vics, one of the highest spikes ever.

Um I'm not here to call a low because it's hard to say when the low will be there.

But I will say historically, when you've seen the vics move up by more than 15 points and it's only happened about four or five times when you look out a year out, you've been up every time now.

Uh Sea 11 period.

That's interesting that I looked at was the 2018 period where it was, it was FED related, but it was the other way the people were concerned about the fed moving too, you know, the economy moving too high, you did have a spike in the vics.

You made a lower low and then you actually chopped around but you did rebound.

And I think that's a template for what we're gonna see.

Uh going forward.

Keith.

There, there are a lot of investors out there that look at a dip like this over the past several sessions here in aggregate and trying to figure out, OK, where does this present buying opportunity?

Where are you looking across your own kind of in investment landscape and, and portfolio landscape and saying, OK, here's what we've been waiting for to buy further into.

Yeah, well, at this point, we've been thinking we were going in a choppy period.

I want to see after today if our indicators get to the extremes like as of Friday, we were telling our clients like the technology sector had not moved to an extreme as of yet, even after the over sold.

So we'll be gonna be looking closely at that sectors at the two day moving average today.

Um The S and P our best estimate is that the downside from here is probably limited to about 4 to 5%.

So, I mean, if you have a longer term horizon, I think just more generally being in the overall market, I I don't know that again, being aggressive here, I think we might have a little bit further to go but dipping your toe in if you had some cash on the sidelines.

And I do think one area that we will be focused on is tech again, is it the low?

It's premature to say that.

But I think the risk reward is actually improving as you move back and you're taking off some of that complacency from the market and the market had been pretty complacent into this number is gonna be the catalyst for that reversal that maybe we could see once we are going to see some of that momentum return here to the market.

Yeah.

Well, you know, to be fair, I I actually think we're going to be in an extended period of choppy awards because what tends to happen after you have a quick move down in the market in a volatility spike that tells you that market participants were offside.

So then what tends to happen is you have a cluster of strong days, strong down days because there's a battle between fear and greed and as opposed to just going back to new highs, you tend to go back and forth, making it frustrated on both sides.

I think you have to get kind of pass through all from the bull side.

You want to see that things like the initial jobs claims like the services this morning that actually confirmed that the economy isn't heading into recession and you get closer to when the fed would likely cut rates.

I think the challenge today.

Is that the FED is in meeting for another six weeks.

Yes, they can cut into market or inter meeting, I should say, but typically they don't want to set off, you know, perception that there's panic there.

So I do think that this is going to take some time and patience will be a virtue.

Um, until we, I think get past this economy, we have confirmed itself and it will probably be later in the fall before we actually make a lot of headway to the upside.

Do, do you think that the FED should institute a 50 basis point cut?

The probability is moving that direction, at least from what we've seen semi fed watch data.

Yes, we, we do.

And that's uh you know, a base case now is that September, you'll see a 50 basis point cut if you think about it, you know, for so long, the FED was so focused on one side of the mandate is in on inflation.

Well, the, the P ce their core preferred measures around 2.5%.

So now they should be uh squarely focused on the other side of the main, which is employment and the economy and that's obviously showing some cooling here recently.

So we think they need to get on with it.

We think by most measures, almost any measure you are still restrictive.

So I think it's important that they start moving in that direction.

But again, we might be in a little bit of a waiting period for them to do so.

And that just causes the market to have some jitteriness.

But again, I mean, the good news is at least you're moving more towards an oversold and discounting some of the uncertainties which weren't being discounted.

Well, I say a week ago, Keith, where do you think that leaves the Fed?

Then as you look ahead to the remainder of the year, so pass the September, meaning when you look ahead to November, when you look ahead to December, I guess how aggressive do you see the FED needing to get?

Then at that point, I think as a base case, we would say a total of 100 basis point cuts this year, maybe of 50 then two quarters.

But you know, to be fair, I mean, we have, you know, the employment report that we had on Friday that really got the market's attention that gets revised 23 times.

So, I mean, unfortunately, it will be data dependent, right?

Um The, the, the, the three month trend for the employment, by the way right now is about 100 and 70,000.

That's just back to the pre panem trend.

So by itself, the trend is, is cool, but it's not a weak relative to history.

So I think it's gonna be obviously data dependent, but our base case is 100 basis point cut from here.

All right, Keith Lerner, co chief Investment Officer and Chief Market strategist at True.

Thanks so much for hopping on with us this morning, Keith, great to get your insight.

Well, the S and P 500 down just about 2.5%.

So off its earlier lows of the session, you've got the index had a major run up so far this year ahead of that volatility that we've seen given.

Even with today's drop, it's still up about 9% even with the recent pullback.

But our next guest seeing some years risk potentially here for the S and P 500 here to talk about that and the key levels that he is seeing, I want to bring in our next guest.

We have Ari Wald, he's the head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer Ari, it's great to see you.

So on a day like today, I gotta ask you what levels are you closely watching?

Given the the dramatic selloff answer that one is, is 5100.

That's uh just a retracement of prior rise.

You have the 200 day average uh around that as well.

So gonna be looking for signs of stabilization there.

But, you know, really, for us, it's taking a step back and seeing the the market down about 9 to 10% you know, off its peak uh still above those long term moving averages as well.

So this would still, you know, qualify as a pullback in an uptrend.

Um You know, with that said, on top of that, you had a V reading this morning of 65.

Uh amazing if you look back at the last 35 years, that was only exceeded during the depths of the great financial crisis and the COVID lows.

Uh and, and again, that's with the market only down 10% off its peak.

So that would suggest that a market low is likely to be, is likely to develop over the next week or two if if not the coming days.

So right off the bat, it's, it's we think it's too late to sell.

We are looking to uh buy, you know, those positions that we see as core positions that, that we think we can own through what should be some additional market volatility.

But I I think there are some potential underlying warnings that would suggest that we're later in this full cycle than we originally thought.

All right, talk to me a little bit more about where you are seeing the opportunity to the extent that you can and kind of how you're identifying those areas that are more attractive just given all the uncertainty that still remains.

Uh Sure.

So yeah, we would fall back to kind of our discipline uh momentum investing where we're seeing long term relative strength that's going to be us over world uh large, over small growth over value.

Uh So we still still believe that we are in a tech led and a growth led secular bull market.

Uh obviously, there's going to be ebbs and flows around that.

But I think as you see these big spikes in the vics and, and markets down sharply, I think a great opportunity to, to buy the NASDAQ 100 for the long term.

Um We, and then conversely, we would be, you know, less sure about uh small caps here, which had a Great July.

Uh But as we think about the possibility of peak market bread, um small caps likely are going to be the first to peak, you know, they usually peak ahead of large caps.

And that's kind of been in conjunction with some of our thinking.

One of our established viewpoints has been that the market should top by the time you get closer to that uh first fed cut, we look back historically and both cycles that develop against tighter monetary policy usually top uh when the fed starts to cut its policy rate.

And that's especially true when they are reactionary cuts, which appears to be developing there.

So again, tops are a process, they, they take time, it would suggest, you know, meaningful more upside versus the high point that we saw in July uh might be capped there.

But um I think there is a rally here in the ensuing process.

So, Ari then do you think that this, if we were to get a fed cut here in September, regardless of, if it's 25.

If it's 50 it's still going to be a sell the news type of event.

It sounds like, uh generally, uh, longer term.

I mean, listen, I can see a scenario where the fed cuts, the market rallies just given how much the, the rubber band has been snapped and there's gonna be this feel good story attached to it.

Uh, and, and I think some, I think some of the case could be made that as a market positive, but, you know, are kind of thinking that would be part of a more of a topping process just given it, it seems to be a more of a reactionary cut.

And we've, we've, we've looked at the numbers if you look at specifically points through market history when the yield curve is inverted and the last policy move by the fed was a cut.

You, you're typically in your worst bucket, you typically you'll see negative returns over a four or 12 month basis there.

Um So again, it's, it's not an imminent sell signal, but I think it does speak to this more later cycle and later in bull market that we're in a real quick before I let you go.

How should investors overall just be looking at the selling pressure that we've seen starting Friday and then into today is this almost healthy to an extent here for the market at this point in the cycle on the surface.

It is, if you look at the indexes, they're all coming back into their 200 day averages.

Uh and there's really no meaningful signs of distribution or at least it's, it's just emerging.

The, the concerns really lie in the rate market and what we are, we're seeing some subtle shifts in leadership.

You know what I think, what has in terms of what has changed over the last week is you had a significant breakdown in interest rates and we've always said, be careful what you wish for.

By the time you get lower rates, it's going to be the market pricing in more imminent recession.

Uh And you've seen, we've seen the leadership of the market change as well looking at the high beta versus low volatility ratio, which is pretty much uh offense versus defense.

Uh We have seen a shift towards defensive dos which we haven't seen throughout this cycle.

So, you know, the first kind of pillars of strength are starting to crack here.

Um And those are the warnings to be mindful of as we look ahead.

All right, Ari Wald, great to have you here.

Oppenheimer's head of technical analysis.

Thanks so much.

Thank you.

Coming up.

We're gonna have more on the sell off with tech in turmoil, the sector under pressure as the stock market route continues to accelerate.

Although we are off the lows of the session right now, you've got the S and P off just about 3%.

You've got the NASDAQ off about 3.8%.

The dow also firmly in the red off.

Nearly 2.5% that decline have been more than 1100 points earlier in today's session.

Now of just around 950 we got more on that when we come back.

Let's take a look at some of today's big movers and we gotta start off with the selling that we are seeing in tech.

We've also have Josh Schafer Markets reporter here with me to break it all down.

But Josh, let's take a look at what we're seeing on the screen and that's Microsoft and alphabet.

Both of those names in the red off the lows of the session.

We're only about 50 minutes into the training day, but you're looking at Microsoft now off just about 3% alphabet also seeing some losses here and we're seeing some unwinding of the trades that had been working, right?

So we'll of the weakness that we are seeing play out within the market, very broad based.

But really a lot of the bulk of that selling action coming from some of these mag seven names that had been working now for so long.

It's a continuation of the trade that we've been tracking for several weeks now, right?

When you take a look at what's led the market lower since basically mid July, it's been big tech, right?

So it's not surprising on a day like today to see big tech weeding the way lower.

I've talked to a couple of strategists this morning that have essentially argued, it might actually be a good thing that big tech is what's leading the market lower.

When you look at the sectors on the day, the fact that you only see consumer discretionary and big tech lower than the S and P 500.

You can pull a positive spin out of that, which is people keep wanting to sort of unwind their mag seven trade from those names you're looking at on your screen, but might actually be interesting putting money to work elsewhere.

It's not a complete f flight to safety panic move.

It's more so.

Ok, let's reposition and get into something else that could work.

I thought Kevin Gordon at Schwab made a great point about big tech earnings last week to me.

He said it really was no different than the economic data story.

It's just a story of expectations.

And we had gotten to a point with a lot of these stocks trading near all time highs that the expectations for them to keep beating earnings and raising revenue guidance and continuing to just go up up and up at some point, you just can't meet those expectations.

And so it's not to say that those earnings weren't good because I think a lot of analysts we've talked to over the last week, look at most of those companies earnings and say the fundamental story is in pretty good shape.

It's the fundamental story isn't quite as great as the market might have hoped.

And so you're seeing people just pull back their bets a little bit.

Yeah, exactly.

I talked a lot about the lofty expectations heading into earnings season and how high the bar had been set for so many of those mag seven companies.

And you're right because when you take a look, Lisa, all the ones that have reported, except for NVIDIA so far, they have reported pretty solid.

I mean, this is a broad stroke here, but I think the overall takeaway so far this earnings season has then they, they have been holding up, they have been showing impressive growth.

But of course, the question is going forward the momentum or I guess to the extent maybe that some of that growth is going to slow given those lofty act, right?

And then you look specifically we're talking big tech and you look at what's down right now and what's down the most NVIDIA is down the most.

Why do you think video is down the most because the expectations had gotten so lofty?

Right?

And the stock was up 100 50% this year or more than that at one point, Tesla's down, Tesla had been ripping for the last three months to see Tesla down 6% a company where the fundamental story is in question and people are wondering about the earnings trajectory, it just adds up and to see other stocks being weighed down by a lesser extent.

I do think again, you find a little bit of solace in sort of that market connection.

All right, let's talk about one name that's, it's been pretty volatile.

Now for quite some time, we've got earnings coming up.

It's a top trending Dicker here and now finance that's palent.

Your shares also being dragged lower this morning in the wake of the sell off being caught up in some of that broad based pressure that we had just been talking about those shares off just about 7.5%.

So of course, it set up here into the earnings, never great.

But in terms of what expectations are lofty expectations, whether or not we, we are going to see, uh the company need that they have government in sales could outperform the expectations after closing a $480 million us army deal.

But again, when you take a look at this name, the volatility that's been surrounding Palantir over its last several quarters, I think many are questioning whether or not it is going to live up to some of those expectations as well.

Some pretty big gaps on the chart and Palant here if you look over the last year and even the five year right on earnings and just massive moves because they're in A I trade, right?

And so you've had big swings on earnings when they talk about how a I is going to help them how they're gonna monetize A I further, et cetera, et cetera.

And so I think it's gonna be an interesting time for them to report earnings because we've been talking essentially as we're talking about the market being down is a little bit of a shift in market sentiment.

Right.

Kind of that.

A I, if the A I trade isn't working for Microsoft alphabet meta, it's hard to see that it's going to start working for Pier.

But maybe they can, they can produce earnings that do sort of shift that narrative or they can say something on the call that can, it is definitely coming in a tough environment.

But I think just in general how the market reacts, whether it's an aggressive move to the downside or perhaps maybe it's just that the stock doesn't fall that much.

You know, there's a world where that's a win in today's market action after earnings.

And so I think it will be interesting to see what kind of sentiment and want.

There is four pune shares after hours given the fact that it is really one of the leading players in that A I trade the messy of A I as our friend, Dan Ives likes the call of A, I actually forgot about that.

But yeah, even when you take a look at the five day chart, you can see some of the pressure that fall deer has been under.

It's off just about 15% 3 months, just below the flat line.

But then when you compare that to even the year to begins, it's still up, Josh to your, to what you were saying before.

I mean, it's still up just about 33%.

And a lot of those wild swings that we see in the stock, a lot of that being attributed to A I and, and some of the promise of the future and what exactly A I could unlock here uh in terms of the fundamental story for pent here.

So we will see what happens after the bell today.

All right, let's also take a look at crypto because that's selling off today.

Bitcoin briefly falling below 50,000.

We're now actually back above 53,000 here.

The sell off is also sending crypto related stocks lower.

You've got Coinbase Robin Hood micro strategy all firmly in the red today.

And Josh, when you take a look at the risk of trade, what has been happening, what has been playing out within the markets also, especially the correlation between many of these crypto related stocks are really just crypto more broadly.

We take a look at the news of Bitcoin and compare that to the NASDAQ and some of the tech names that is we've seen close correlation to that here over some time.

So again, the risk off trade investors aren't jumping in to crypto.

It doesn't seem like our head of news Miles Lin wrote last week, that Bitcoin was the tell before the sell off started because it was the first thing to move last week.

And if you were watching the market at all, last night was once again to tell.

Right.

I got a notification at some point last night that the theory was down 20%.

And I sort of went on to my phone and was like, wait, what's going on and then that's when you start kind of getting clued in because crypto is trading 24 7.

It's interesting to see it fall a little bit more as futures started to open as the market opened.

And we shift towards sort of that narrative to the exchanges as well.

One interesting thing I just noticed with Coinbase though, we're looking at it down about 8% those shares were down 18% at one point in pre market trading.

And as we started the show at 9:09 a.m. and I just think it's interesting to see if you really look at the one day intraday.

Yes, it's down, but it's been climbing back up and that's sort of what parts of the market have been doing throughout the day too.

So you wonder how far in some of these areas, investors feel like, ok, maybe we snapped a little bit too far the other way and then sort of where to resettle in the middle is gonna be an interesting one to watch it.

With the crypto stuff.

Yeah, exactly.

And that's important to point out too because we've also seen that more broadly speaking as well with the major averages off the lows of the session.

Also, many of those tech names that we've been talking about over the last several minutes.

Those are also off the lows.

All right, Josh, thank you.

Keep right here on Yahoo Finance, we got much more coming up again.

We are closely tracking the slide that we are seeing across the major averages as it stands right now.

You do have the dow back off more than 1000 points.

You've got the S and P off just over 3%.

You also have the NASDAQ firmly in the red.

More on that when we come back, we got treasury yields under some pressure here.

Today, the 10 year yield is sinking.

Now, investors questioning if the fed took too long to start cutting rates with the CME fed watch tool showing over 90% of traders are now expecting a 50 basis point cut in September for more.

I want to bring in Brian railing the head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo, Brian.

It's great to see you here.

So talk to me just I more specifically before we jump into the broader picture, just the movement that we have seen in yields and the 10 versus the two and some of those dramatic moves that we saw ahead of the open today.

What's your reaction to some of that so far?

I mean, yeah, I saw some really dramatic moves.

I think the two year, uh, got down, you know, uh, I think we're like 20 basis points higher than we were, uh, this morning.

So, uh, some really dramatic moves.

I mean, clearly bonds are kind of, you know, your risk off asset class of choice.

So, you know, when there's a lot of fear in markets, you see really big moves in fixed income.

And we're seeing that today, you know, we're seeing things moderate a little bit here.

You know, some of the kind of fearful trade at the market open has dissipated a bit.

So things may be getting a little bit more rational, at least for the moment in fixed income.

So, Brian, what does that tell us?

Then when you take a look at the 10 year yield, you have it right around 377?

Is that a rate?

Do you think it's going to stay below four?

Given some of this uncertainty, what are you seeing, what's ahead in, in sort of the range that we could likely see?

Yeah, I mean, there's still a lot of uncertainty, not just around the economic situation but geopolitical events.

The election now is much closer than perhaps it was a couple of weeks ago.

So there's a lot of uncertainty in markets, I think as long as that uncertainty persists we'll trade below four.

I would be really surprised if we saw the 10 year move below 3.5 though.

I think we would need to see, you know, some really strong evidence that the economy here in the US is weakening at a much faster pace or something breaks.

You know, that's always the risk at times like these liquidity dries up.

You know, there is a problem somewhere that was not anticipated things break.

So that's a risk out there.

But that materializing, you know, I think we'll trade between three and five and 4% here until some of the uncertainties that are on the horizon.

Clear up.

Brian, there had been some talk and it was even could be into the markets ahead of Friday's jobs print about whether or not the rally that we had seen in treasuries, if it had been a little bit overextended or overdone.

And then we've seen the moves of the last 48 hours, I play out, I guess.

What did you read on that?

And do you think too much is being made over just this one print on the labor market?

You know, that's a really good question.

It is just one print.

Although, you know, we've seen the trend now slowly weakening, slowly weakening, maybe weakening at a little bit faster pace here.

So, you know, I wouldn't be ready to throw in the towel and say a recession is at the doorstep or the labor market is completely rolling over.

We need to see some more data before coming to that conclusion, but the trends of course are going in the wrong way.

So, you know, we just really need to get a little bit better read on that uh before kind of drawing two dire conclusions.

I think Brian, what's your base case?

Because we have seen traders really start to reassess the need for rate cuts clearly by the dramatic moves that we've seen play out specifically in the bond market.

What are your expectations over the next several months?

Yeah.

You know, that jobs report last week did change my expectations a little bit looking for probably more rate cuts clearly than we had expected before.

I don't think we're at a point where the fed needs to come in and do a intra meeting emergency rate cut.

Now, we may get to that point, something breaks something deteriorates faster.

But I don't think we're there today.

In fact, I think such a move might signal to markets that what does the fed see that we don't see?

Maybe there's bigger problems afoot.

So I'm not sure that would be a good move anyway, but I do think probably the odds are increasing that at September instead of only going 25 they go 50 but we do get, you know, more prints between now and then not just on the labor markets, which I think are most important right now, but also inflation, which of course is the other part of their dual mandate.

So I don't think there's any need to rush to conclusions, but I do think we're trending probably towards a bigger initial rate cut there in September.

All right, Brian Railing.

Great to have your insight.

Thanks so much for joining us here, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo.

Thanks Brian.

Thanks oil prices.

Also under some pressure here today.

Amid the wider global sell off, you've got crude now just below 73 bucks a barrel.

You've also got Brent trading to the downside amid fears surrounding a slowing us and global economy.

Yahoo Finance's in fray has a closer look at the breakdown for us in.

Yes, Shana and we are seeing oil that is off the session lows because it had been down to around $72 per barrel just a little bit above that right now.

You are looking at crude down almost 1%.

Brent crude is down 7/10 of a percent.

Look, this is all part of the market, sell off the large broad market, sell off that we are seeing across all we are seeing crude that is down on that weak economic data that has been coming out trickling in from the US.

You also had some softness when it comes to China.

So China softness had already spooked the markets last week and the week prior so to speak.

And then OPEC plus is expected to continue on with its production cuts, unwind those involuntary unwinds in October.

OPEC did say that they could reverse that decision.

And you've got analysts right now that are saying we're in oversold territory when it comes to oil right now.

So they don't see OPEC Plus really going forward with those production cuts starting in October.

And then on top of that, you've got the geopolitical tensions with a retaliation expected from Iran against Israel after that assassination of the Hamas leader Tehran last week.

So you can imagine that you would see oil that is actually up.

You have those geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

But right now, we're still seeing pressure for crude guys and Ernes, when you take a look at some of the other trades that are happening within the commodity space.

I also want to point out some of the losses that we're seeing in gold right now.

It is off the lows well off actually the lows of the session right now, but break down what we're seeing there and maybe what the signals or the implications for what's ahead.

So we are seeing a gold that's down more than 1%.

Look, this is normally a safe haven.

So you'd expect to see gold would be higher also if the US dollar is moving in the opposite direction.

But this just goes to show you the level of panic that you're seeing in the market, the fact that everything is really selling off, even that safe haven of gold.

If they pull up a yearly chart of gold, you are still seeing gold futures that are up 80% year to date.

And we have seen quite a lot of volatility when it comes to gold.

But when you see gold going down with everything else, then you know that this is a broad market, sell off, everything is getting dragged down.

All right.

and that's what we're seeing right now today.

All right, Anne, thanks so much.

Well, coming up, we're tracking the sell off here in stocks again.

You've got the dow off in just over 1000 points.

You've got the NASDAQ off about 3.5% some broad based selling playing out within the market and was just mentioning, mentioning some of the pressure that we're seeing gold.

You've also got gold and silver miner stocks tumbling as the equity sell off deepens across the board.

We've got a closer look.

Those moves to the downside fast investors using trading platform, Schwab Fidelity Vanguard and Robin Hood all experiencing issues this morning.

That's according to reports that are out, this comes as the massive sell off in the markets has sparked, has sparked volatility here for more on this.

We want to bring in Joe Mazzola.

He is head of trading and derivative strategist at Charles Schwab Joe.

It's great to have you here.

So I'm on Twitter on X right now there certainly are a lot of complaints from customers not being able to, to log into their trading platforms.

Can you give us a better sense of what's happening right now at Schwab?

Yeah, sure.

I mean, some clients, they are experiencing uh intermittent issues on some of our platforms, but um we are working to resolve the issue as quickly as possible.

And as you mentioned, it doesn't appear to be unique to Schwab Joe.

What are you seeing in terms of the retail buying activity?

Because I think that's what a lot of people want to get a sense of right now, especially given the dramatic moves that we had seen play out over the last couple of trading days and especially this morning.

Are we seeing traders focus on the names that had been favored like some of those big tech names uh so far this morning?

Yeah.

So uh we can reference our stats report, which is our Schwab of our trading activity index and that will take us all the way through to the end of July, basically July 26th.

And what we saw in that report is if you can remember some of that deleveraging was already starting in July, uh where you saw movement out of some of the big tech names and saw a bounce in the Russell and the spread between the performance on the Russell and the NASDAQ was uh was fairly wide.

I mean, uh you know, the widest we've seen in years, but what we saw from our community was a little bit different.

We didn't see the, um the retail clients deleveraging to the same extent that you, you know, saw with um maybe some of the institutions, if anything, they were dip, buying on some names like um you know, Broadcom and nvidia and then Chipotle, those were our three biggest buys, Joe.

What do you attribute that to?

What do I attribute that to?

Yeah, just a change in behavior.

I mean, I mean, give us a better sense of exactly then what retail traders are then pricing in.

Yeah, I think, you know, a lot of it started last, you know, last week, I think that, uh there was some weakness in the, in the job data uh that, you know, that spooked the markets and it creates a bit of a cascading effect.

You know, there, there's three things that I would absolutely point to, um, in terms of this market, uh in general, I think, you know, there's a lot of, um, there was a lot of kind of short volatility uh plays that, that I think are starting to unwind a little bit and I think that has to do with some of the, the carry trade, uh that we've been, you know, we've talked about, we've heard about, you know, over the last couple of weeks and then I think, you know, it also kind of points to the fact that you saw, uh, a position stacking where people were, you know, long A I long the tech play and then long calls.

And so, you know, there was, there was a bit of a leverage that was kind of stacked into that.

And when you see, like I said, when you see that deleveraging happen, it happens very quickly.

And what it can do is it can exacerbate some of the moves like we saw this morning, Joe, what's your assessment so far of second quarter earnings season?

Because overall they have, I mean, even take a look at some of those larger cap tech names, the, the the the numbers have been strong.

I think there's lots of questions just about guidance and exactly what that growth is going to look out, look like going forward.

I, is that something that you think maybe some investors are missing just given the downward movement that we've seen in so many of those names?

And right after they reported?

Yeah, I mean, uh, you know, if you, if you just look at going back to last Friday, at that point, you had about an 11% year over year growth in earnings for the S and P 500 revenues were a little bit shorter or a little bit lower than expected.

I think you had about a 58% beat there.

So that's a little bit below the 3 to 5 year average.

And that's where, you know, there might be some concern and I think that's probably what investors are looking at is this idea of, you know, do firms have pricing power now, uh, relative to a weakening consumer, are they going to be able, uh, to be able to, to continue to drive that revenue continue to have those, uh, those profit margins or are they gonna have to discount?

And I think what we've seen, you know, through some of the consumer discretionary stocks is that the discounting is starting?

And what could that mean for next quarter's earnings uh when you see those profit margins coming in?

All right, Joe Mazzola, we have to leave it there.

Head of trading and derivative strategist at Charles Schwab.

Thanks.

Keep right here on Yahoo Finance.

Once again, we are tracking the uh every mo mo uh movement that we're seeing play out within the selling that's happening right now on the street.

You've got the dow just around right off at the lows of the session.

Still off just about 2.6%.

You've got the NASDAQ off about 3.6%.

Some of those larger cap tech names, the mag 17 well off their lows of the session but still firmly in the red.

Some of those losses being led by NVIDIA that's still moving to the downside.

One that's brought a weakness.

But two, we also got the report out over the weekend about some delayed Blackwell chips that's contributing to the losses there.

And then Tesla and Apple also leading the declines of the mag seven.

We'll be right back.

Let's take a look at some of today's big movers here that are turning on.

Yahoo Finance, Brad Smith.

He's back with me before.

Well, so we have the three stocks to break down in 30 seconds.

Tyson Foods, Lockheed Martin and Kela Nova.

Let's kick it off with Tyson Foods.

You've got chairs moving to the upside of bucking that broader market pressure that we're seeing almost across the board.

You got Tyson Foods up just about 2%.

The company beating expectations for profit and revenue as sales of meat products or rebound.

Taking a look at what actually stood out within this report.

Chicken was a bright spot.

Some of the I saw analysts calling out here earlier and when you take a look at the fact that it had net sales rising 1.6% to just over 13 billion in the quarter, the company sales fell, fell in 2023 again.

So regaining some of those momentum.

Yeah, pork.

One of the other categories that was really strong up by about 13% and and at least the price change, but on a change only up by about 1.2%.

Let's also talk about Lockheed Martin shares.

They are lower along with the broader market here.

The stock initially popping this morning after an upgrade from an R BC analyst to buy from hold.

They also raised their price target to $600 from $500.

You're seeing shares lower right now by about 1.4% though, amid the broader sell off that we are seeing in markets, anything that is aerospace, more leaning, more defense has been catching a little bit more of a bid, but we'll see where Lockheed Martin is able to drum up even more of those contracts important for its business.

Uh and some of the larger projects that it's working on, getting caught up in that brought ourselves today.

All right, let's take a look at Kela Nova because shares are soaring.

Got multiple reports saying that Mars, the maker of Snickers and other popular candy is in advanced talks to buy Kela Nova in a deal that would value the company at about $30 billion.

We did see shares in pre market spiked.

I believe it was just about 20%.

We're now looking gains just about 13%.

But again, this would be one of the biggest deals of the year.

Now, this is a stock that has actually performed relatively well.

Since the start of the year, it gained about 13% through the close of Friday, obviously doubling that today.

But again, we will see how this all plays out.

Kela Nova declining to comment to Yahoo Finance pop tarts could have a new home, could have a new home I 30 billion though, I mean, the pop tarts are worth a lot at the end of the day I used to get the sport.

All right.

Keep it right here.

Our very own Brad Smith.

He's got you for the next hour as well.

Dedicated.

All of your personal finance needs to answer all your questions of what you need to know surrounding today's sell off what you should do with your money.

He's got you next.

I'll see you tomorrow.

Some happy stuff in the show too.