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Coronavirus U.S. death toll may hit 134k+ by early August, study reveals

Clinical Professor of Epidemiology at NYU School of Global Public Health Dr. Robyn Gershon joins Yahoo Finance’s Seana Smith to discuss the latest coronavirus developments as more states gear up to implement reopening plans.

Video Transcript

SEANA SMITH: I want to bring in Dr. Robyn Gershon, a clinical professor of epidemiology at NYU's School of Global Public Health. And Dr. Gershon, it's great to have you back on the show. Let's start with that alarming report. I just want to get your thoughts on what you think of it, the fact that we could see 135,000 deaths by August just a few months away. And is this consistent with what you're seeing?

ROBYN GERSHON: This was a very alarming report, and I can tell you the people, my friends and colleagues in public health, we're watching it very closely. And we are quite concerned of course. Right now, we have 1,200 deaths today in New York City as of 2:00 PM.

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We've been running about 1,000 deaths every day for the last month in the country. This all of a sudden will lead to 3,000 deaths per day for the next six weeks, and that's a very huge increase. And what's driving it? Some of these modelers, this group was out of University of Washington. They're very respected.

They've done a great job so far. They are saying that there will be a lot of this premature lightening and loosening of the restrictions. And they are concerned, and that's what their models are showing. That will have a drastic increase in the number of cases, but much more than we've had so far.

SEANA SMITH: So doctor, with the loosening of the restrictions, and the big question is, is this second wave almost unavoidable at this point? Because we still don't have enough tests. There's not a treatment, and the vaccine, I know President Trump's saying he's very optimistic that we could get it by the end of the year. But from all the doctors that we've been talking to on the show, the best case scenario seems to be 12 to 18 months from now.

ROBYN GERSHON: Yes, but to balance that, I just read recently that Pfizer pharmaceutical is starting a clinical trial that looks very promising. They're doing everything all at once. It's a very unusual trial, and they're looking at four different vaccines. Any one of which might work, so we do have some hope on the horizon in terms of a more perhaps rapid vaccination for our folks.

But in terms of loosening restrictions, look, Governor Newsom, he's loosening it up in the north of California, where it's very rural. And they've had very few cases. Unfortunately, even though he said just small shops and maybe bookstores, very few things will open.

Some people are taking it upon themselves to open up restaurants, and gyms, and hair salons. And I think those are the kinds of things that the University of Washington modelers are looking at and thinking, oh, my goodness, there might be folks coming up there from some of the hotspots, say, down by the Bay Area further down in California will go up north and perhaps bring it with them. People who are incubating it for instance, right now, so it's really truly a balance. It's a balance between individual rights, first amendment rights, and the greater good, the good for the society for all of us.

SEANA SMITH: Yeah, and Dr. Gershon, when we talk about balancing that, it's extremely hard to say the least just talking about trying to balance what's best for the economy, also, taking into account the health of people, what the risk is out there. Would California with them reopening as some of beginning the phases of reopening their economy at least in some parts of the state, do you think it's too early then to do it at this point?

ROBYN GERSHON: I mean, so far, it seems that some of these local jurisdictions are really playing it very close to what they see in their own local area. And for them, it may be perfectly fine. What I worry about is the traveling in between these places, so people coming from high hotspot areas, like New York City, to some of these other places. And that's our real concern.

That's a big concern, because it's true they have very few cases now. But they also have very little capacity, hospital capacity, contact tracing capacity. So that worries me that they will not be ready, if they do have a big flare up.

SEANA SMITH: Yeah, Dr. Gershon, it's interesting. Because people are beginning to travel more. I mean, airline travel, if you take a look at that, it hit the 30 day high just a few days ago. So you talk about the fact that people are beginning to cross state lines. It could potentially be bringing the virus with them.

We talked about the need for more tests and the need for more protective equipment at this point. What is your thoughts on when do you think we're going to have robust testing? When do you think we're going to stop talking about the fact that we still need more tests, and we will be adequately supplied?

ROBYN GERSHON: It's definitely ramping up. I know certainly here in New York state and New York City, it has definitely ramped up. We've done over a million tests right here in New York state. We clearly need more.

The problem is it's still that pipeline. We still have a problem with getting enough tests. But I think within the next six weeks, we will have capacity.

Now the governor Cuomo here in our state, he's saying that hospitals have to have 30% additional capacity in order for him to feel comfortable in any region, 30% additional capacity of beds and ICUs. Not every region will have that and certainly not every region in the US. But that seems like a minimal standard to me.

SEANA SMITH: Dr. Gershon, I want to get your thoughts on this story here that's gaining some traction today and getting some pick up. And that's the fact that health authorities in New York City issued an alert, and they were saying that children had a syndrome. That syndrome that doctors are struggling to understand at this point.

They don't fully understand what it is, but it's described as "multisystem inflammatory syndrome potentially associated with COVID-19." I know you were looking into this. What can you tell us about this at this point?

ROBYN GERSHON: This is very concerning. We got that alert yesterday, and I can tell you, it really lit a fire under many of us who were following this closely. This is very concerning from a number of perspectives.

First of all, it was 15 children between the ages of two and 15. They were all hospitalized, all very sick with what we call Kawasaki syndrome, which attacks the blood vessels. It's a very serious condition. It can lead to permanent heart damage. And now, they have put out an alert to all the pediatricians in New York City to be on the alert and to make sure that they are instantly notified of these cases, and also, send to clinical specialists, like infectious disease pediatricians, who can take care of them.

It's concerning, because we still know so little about this virus. This is what is the concern. We're seeing people who seemingly get better and still have symptoms, very severe symptoms, two months later. Now we're seeing this outbreak in children, very concerning.

Up to now, children have been spared. So in this climate of not knowing a lot about this virus, we're seemingly learning new things about it every day and trying to open up at the same time and save our economy. It's really an incredible balancing act, but we have to follow these new changes as they emerge very, very closely to see what's really happening.

SEANA SMITH: Yeah, Dr. Gershon, I totally agree with you. Just the fact that there's so much still that we don't understand about this virus. And when we have reports like this, it just reinforces that fact. So Dr. Robyn Gershon, a clinical professor of epidemiology at NYU's School of Global Public Health. Thanks so much for taking the time to join us, again, on the show.

ROBYN GERSHON: My pleasure.