Kamala Harris is top pick for Biden's VP, betting giant predicts

Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi joins Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman to break down how the Minneapolis protests are shaking up the VP shortlist for Joe Biden’s potential running mate.

Video Transcript

ZACK GUZMAN: All right, well, as I mentioned, it is an election year. A lot more is being learned about that. We've been tracking the polls as Trump responds to both the coronavirus pandemic as well as the rising political unrest now spreading across the country. When you look at his approval rating, it has come down over the last few weeks. And of course, there are a lot of question marks about who Joe Biden will name as his VP.

And for both of those things I want to get to our next guest. Sarbjit Bakhshi Smarkets Head of Political Markets, tracking the way that people are weighing these outcomes. And Mr. Bakhshi, I mean, when you look at the data right now, what do you see? I know that Joe Biden has basically grown his lead over President Trump. But when you look at what could happen here in terms of who he adds as his Veep, what are we seeing on the front there?

SARBJIT BAKHSHI: Well, the democratic VP race has always been a very interesting one. But since we started the market back in January, Kamala Harris is leading that market currently at 41%. It's not the highest she's ever been. But she's way ahead of the second place in that market, which is a Val Demmings at 13%, followed by Warren at 11%, who's always normally been second place, but has been pushed down recently.

And Keisha Lance Bottoms has already appeared in our market at 7%, which is a new entrant. So very much Kamala Harris still in that lead, still holding on to that 41%, implied for ability to become the Democratic VP. And events of late have done nothing to hinder her position, and perhaps are strengthening her position to be chosen.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, and that's interesting too, though, because when we talk about who these frontrunners are for his selection, you can look at Senator Klobuchar, Kamala Harris, as you're noting, are both former prosecutors. And then you look at Val Demmings also served as Orlando's first female police chief, which was a department that actually had a bit of its own problems in terms of excessive force.

And when you talk about all of these past in the climate of today, I guess it would be interesting to see that all of these candidates, not necessarily seeing negative ramifications of those pasts, but how would you break out maybe how that could implicate one of these candidates a little bit more moving forward?

SARBJIT BAKHSHI: So one of the great things for Biden is that he hasn't chosen his democratic VP, so he can mention names, or names can come up and be associated with him. And he can ride that credibility of those candidates. I think very much at the moment, people are looking at the law and order question from all sides of that debate. And they want someone with experience in those roles.

As you've mentioned, all these candidates have some kind of experience in law and order, especially with Val Demmings, who herself was the impeachment manager for the Trump impeachment trial. So she's got the credibility that. Both candidates are black. And that's an important thing to kind of note at this period, that people are looking for a kind of balanced ticket, or a ticket that represents America more.

So these things are all playing into that mix. And I think that minds are being focused by the current crisis in America onto these kinds of candidates and what they could bring to the Biden ticket. Any of these people would clearly strengthen Biden's ticket.

But what we've seen is people like Klobuchar kind of drop off the market, who maybe haven't benefited so much. And Warren herself has moved on to third place. She's a perennial second or third place candidate. And the others can come and go. But the only consistent message we've been getting from the market is Kamala Harris at 41% is the lead candidate to be his VP.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, and it is interesting too, when you just consider how many female names are on this list, there's nobody there who is a man who is even close in the odds market. But when you do look at Joe Biden himself, it might not matter necessarily who his VP is.

Just when you look at how he's been gaining over the last recent weeks, when you look at the most recent polling there, interesting to note how large his lead over President Trump has been extended when you look at that, 53 to 43, according to a new poll from ABC News and the "Washington Post."

But when you do look at maybe that trend line by itself, we're here, now beginning June, what's your take on maybe that momentum building right now and what it could mean for an incumbent?

SARBJIT BAKHSHI: So normally the incumbent will always have a kind of advantage going into the second term to win. It's very normal for the incumbent to do two terms. There obviously have been a few exceptions to that. But that's the rule. What we've seen of late is that Joe Biden has never been in a position where he's the most likely to win the presidency until the last few days.

And that's flipped for the first time ever, where Biden, as it shows, has been trading at 48%, likely to become the next president, whereas Trump is only at 45%. Trump has been the leader on that market from the very beginning. Before super Tuesday, Trump was trading at 60% to become the next president, and Biden was at just 3%.

So you can imagine that since Super Tuesday, since the democratic primaries have been resolving, Biden looked to be the democratic candidate. To get to this stage is incredible. And our markets are telling us right now that Biden is more likely to become the next president than Trump.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah. I mean, what's surprising too, I mean, we talk about how the polls might not necessarily capture the way the electoral college works out. But you know, the betting markets would, obviously, be a straight up bet on who you think is going to be president, but always interesting to highlight those moves, especially as we move closer to election day. Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarket's Head of Political Markets, appreciate you chatting with us.

SARBJIT BAKHSHI: Thank you very much.