Cos. with a real vaccine history will have their data sets in early 2021: Expert

Jared Holz, Healthcare Equity Strategist at Jefferies, weighs in on the latest coronavirus vaccine developments, as President Trump states in an interview that a COVID-19 vaccine may be ready in four weeks.

Video Transcript

ZACK GUZMAN: While we're talking about all of this, of course, and this is something we've heard from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as well a number of times, not just him reiterating the pressure here for Congress to do more, but also the fact that all of this recovery ties back to the handle on the pandemic at hand anyway. And today, we're getting conflicting timelines from two different health agencies here on when Americans would be able to have access for a vaccine should it be approved by the FDA. On that front, we heard from the head of the CDC, Rob Redfield, laying out how it would be about the second or third quarter of next year, 2021, before a vaccine would be available to the public. And then also, we heard from Paul Mango, the Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy at the Department of Health and Human Services, saying that could happen. Americans could get a shot by the end of March.

So we're dealing with different timelines here, and of course, the president still pushing for a vaccine to come out by the election. So a lot to dig through here. And joining us now for more on all that is Jared Holz, Health Equity Strategists-- Health Equity Strategy at Jefferies. And Jared, it's good to be chatting with you again. What's your reaction to maybe those differing timelines and how optimistic some people are in getting the vaccine by the end of this year and potentially early next year?

JARED HOLZ: Yes, it's great to see you too. So much conflict, as far as you mentioned, regarding the reports of various timelines from different agencies, and, you know, I think that based on, you know, the election coming up in just a couple months and how the president has sort of articulated this entire development as far as research for the last few months that there's probably going to be some sort of emergency use approval by early November just to sort of get that out of the way. But as far as real scientific or clinical data sets prompting a more full approval so that you and I could take a vaccine, we're probably looking at at least six months, probably closer to a year, to where that's actually feasible.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, I mean, when we talk about that, obviously the rollout here, you know, regardless of which vaccine candidate moves past and gets that emergency use authorization, I mean, there is a question of how quickly you can get from that to actually getting out to the people, and which people, I think, is another key question here. We know that the frontline workers would kind of be prioritized here, but how do you see that process going as well?

JARED HOLZ: I think, I mean, a lot of it is just going to depend on federal funding first and foremost. We've seen several vaccine candidates or vaccine companies already get significant funding from the government for development and also procurement, even though none of the vaccines are ready for primetime. And then it comes down to manufacturing, logistics and other elements of the supply chain, which I think are pretty unpredictable. But my feeling all along has been I feel like emergency workers, essential workers, so to speak, are probably going to have access first, and then the general public will have it subsequent to that.

But to me, it's a question around how quickly can these vaccines be manufactured, and what does the supply chain look like? And with the government having such a big role in this, there are too many variables to go on, because they're going to be the biggest buyer at the end of the day. And we really have not seen a situation like this in the past where the government has played such a meaningful role in actually getting product and then getting that product once they had their hands on it back to the public.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, and I just want to play quickly what we heard here from President Trump in terms of his timeline. We said that we've got the CDC's timeline. We also have HHS here as well with their timeline. But here's what the president had to say on that.

DONALD TRUMP: The previous administration would have taken perhaps years to have a vaccine because of the FDA and all the approvals, and we're within weeks of getting it. You know, could be three weeks, four weeks, but we think we have it.

ZACK GUZMAN: The question here too, Jared, is obviously there are a lot of candidates here trying to get approval here from the FDA. And, of course, we know the threshold here is going to be 50% efficacy in terms of getting that immune response you want to see in patients and also it being healthy as well. But when you kind of parse out, I guess, the small players, the big players that have taken money from the US government here, and you grade the progress being made so far, I know you track this well. You've been on the show, and you've been honest with us. I mean, when you look at those players, and you stack them up against each other, where do you see the winner coming out here?

JARED HOLZ: I think it's going to be very close. I think the near-term prospects of winners are different than longer term. But if we're just talking about the next, call it a couple of months into the election, I think the Pfizer program probably has the best odds, just given how aggressive the company has been. Obviously, Scott Gottlieb is on the board of the company. Their data is probably going to be either first or second, so I feel like Pfizer is probably in a pretty good spot from a timing perspective. And then AstraZeneca and Moderna second or third somewhere in that in that category. So it's difficult to tell, but I think those are probably the first three, just based on development timelines.

But then I think what a lot of folks are just not talking about is the fact that the true vaccine companies, Sanofi, Glaxo, Merck, companies with a real vaccine history and backbone, are going to have their data sets in early 2021. So you could have near-term winners that look less good as time goes by. That's been my biggest concern with ascribing too much value to call it Moderna or some of these other programs before knowing who's got what.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, or at the very least, I mean, I guess technically a phase three trial, if you want to call that people getting the vaccine, and you're the president, and your elections in the beginning of November, maybe you'll get it out to one or two people and say that the vaccine got out. But of course, as we've been discussing, to reach herd immunity, it's going to take a lot more than that and a big timeline here. But we'll see what happens. Jared Holz, I appreciate you coming back on. Health Care Equity Strategy at Jefferies. Thanks again.

JARED HOLZ: Thank you.