|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's Range||22.59 - 22.85|
|52 Week Range||20.84 - 25.58|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.53%|
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) stock has also underperformed the gold miners’ index (GDX) year-to-date by returning -6.6% as of April 17. AUY’s 4Q17 results disappointed, with the company reporting earnings far below analysts’ expectations. Its EPS (earnings per share) were -$0.20, below analysts’ estimate of $0.03. The major factor driving the loss was a $356 million non-cash impairment charge related to the remeasurement of its Gualcamayo mine and related expansion projects in Argentina. Investors are wary of Yamana’s inconsistent operational results.
Newmont Mining (NEM) is one of the very few gold mining stocks to have given a positive return year-to-date. As of April 17, it has returned 10.9%, compared to a loss of 1.5% for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Its strong project pipeline is the major driver behind its consistent-to-increasing production profile.
Investors are typically interested in gold mining companies’ (GDX)(GDXJ) ability to generate FCF (free cash flow) because FCF helps them invest in future growth—apart from the aim of returning cash to shareholders.
A crucial factor that continues to affect gold is the US dollar. On Wednesday, gold and the US dollar rose 0.15% and 0.12%, respectively. However, these two move in the opposite direction most of the time. On a YTD (year-to-date) basis, gold has risen 3.4%, while the dollar has lost 2.7%.
On one hand, it has increased US growth projections due to the stimulus from tax cuts. Since these tax cuts are unfunded, the IMF believes that there will be a need for severe spending cuts in the coming years. It predicts that the US debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio will expand to 116.9% by 2023, surpassing Italy’s ratio, which should narrow to 116.6% by 2023.
Gold prices rose ~3% year-to-date (or YTD) after rising ~13% in 2017. Gold prices are affected by a number of factors, including rate hike expectations, trade war fears, the US dollar, and increasing volatility.
Yesterday, Donald Trump accused Russia and China of devaluing their currencies. Trump tweeted that China and Russia are playing “the currency devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable!” Investors should note that this is a contradiction of the US Treasury, which had maintained that no major trading partners are manipulating their currencies.
Gold prices end higher Monday, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim on Twitter that Russia and China are playing a currency devaluation game helped put pressure on dollar.
The Fed minutes from its policy meeting on March 20–21 were released on April 11, 2018. In the March meeting minutes, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) staff review of the economy was stronger than the review presented at the January meeting. According to the minutes, all of the FOMC members expected 12-month inflation (TIP) to increase in the coming months.
The US launched surgical strikes on Syria over the weekend. Many markets such as Japan and other Asian markets have already shrugged off the strikes. An escalation of tensions, however, either due to Russian retaliation or more strikes from the US and allies could mean the risk-off sentiment in the markets affects equity markets negatively.
Among the senior mining companies under review in this series (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM) is currently trading at the highest EV-to-forward EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple, of 8.3x. The company’s slower production growth added to its woes in 2017. Its follow-through on its long-term vision of improving reserves, production, and unit costs by 20% each by 2021 could go a long way in further re-rating its multiple. Barrick Gold’s (ABX) higher financial leverage is still a concern for investors, and the recent issues at its Tanzanian mines have added to its woes.
Usually, precious metals mining companies follow precious metals. When precious metals rose on April 11, 2018, miners followed suit. Most miners saw an up day on April 11, though that may not always be the case.
As gold prices remained buoyant, gold equities also rose. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rose 2.2% against gold’s 1.0% gain. Among the major gold equities, Yamana Gold (AUY) rose the most by 6.4%, followed by IAMGOLD (IAG), which rose 4.6%. These two stocks are more leveraged to gold prices as compared to their peers. IAG, for example, rose 148% and 41% in 2016 and 2017, respectively, against gold price gains of 8% and 13% in 2016 and 2017. Year-to-date (or YTD), AUY and IAG have returned -9.4% and -11.3%, respectively.
Gold prices rose ~1% in 1Q18 after rising ~13% in 2017. Gold prices are being affected by a number of factors, including rate hike expectations, trade war fears, the US dollar, and increasing volatility.
Gold futures prices extended their rally Wednesday, buoyed by geopolitical tensions focused on Syria and elsewhere that put the haven metal in demand, especially as stocks suffered anew.
Gold futures finish higher Tuesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and uncertainty surrounding U.S. reaction to a possible chemical-weapons attack in Syria.
On April 9, 2018, Kinross Gold (KGC) said in a press release that “its mining operations in Russia continue to operate according to plan and remain unaffected by the new sanctions announced by the United States on April 6, 2018.” The company also mentioned that it’s closely monitoring the sanction legislation in Canada, the US, and Europe to remain in compliance. While Kinross has been caught in an unwanted situation, there isn’t much negative impact expected from the sanctions to Kinross’s operations. The stock price reaction can probably be considered an overreaction, as everything related to Russia saw sell-offs yesterday.
Usually, precious metal mining companies are closely related to movements in precious metals. Gold, platinum, and palladium had a down-day on Thursday, April 5, whereas silver had an up-day. Most mining companies followed the trend in silver, while a few turned downward.
Gold prices climb Monday, for a second session in a row, as U.S. tensions with Russia and China raise haven demand for the metal.
Barrick Gold versus Newmont: Comparing Miners in 2018 and BeyondNewmont Mining overtakes Barrick Gold in market cap
Gold prices have edged up only about 6% in the past year, but even that gain is impressive, writes BMO Capital Markets' Colin Hamilton, given weakness in key fundamental areas. Yes, there have been plenty of geopolitical tensions that could normally boost the metal, but at the same time, 2017 was a great year for stocks, and there has been a "collapse" in U.S. investment in the physical metal and global coin fabrication, writes Hamilton. Overall, Hamilton expects that in an inflationary environment, along with rising trade concerns, will lead to retail buyers increasing their allocation to gold as a hedge.
Gold futures finish lower on Tuesday, as stocks bounce back from the previous day’s rout and worries over trade tensions ease.