|Day's Range||98.45 - 98.57|
|52 Week Range||93.84 - 99.37|
Based on the early price action, the direction of the December U.S. Dollar Index the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 98.230.
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate 25-basis points as widely expected for the second time since July, as concerns grow about a potential global economic slowdown. The PBOC cut its new one-year benchmark lending rate for the second month in a row on Friday.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 97.745, the direction of the December U.S. Dollar Index the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term retracement zone at 97.930 to 97.700.
U.S. stocks are trading higher on the Fed rate cut and as investors take comfort as a sense of normalcy returns to the oil markets after Saudi Arabia has reported most of its oil output will return to normal production levels in weeks. Investors are likely confused with the Feds messaging, and perhaps the ultimate problem with this type of FOMC dispersion model is that it’s confusing, which means more uncertainty, and uncertainty could possibly lead to risk reduction.
We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil. The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now. Might it be the Fed Meeting?
It’s a big day for the Pound, with retail sales figures due out ahead of the BoE monetary policy decision. Will there be any dissenters to sink the Pound?
Movements in oil prices can affect the broader stock market if the U.S. dollar significantly fluctuates. That’s the assessment from David Bahnsen, founder of The Bahnsen Group, with $2 billion in assets under management.
The direction of the December U.S. Dollar Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 98.115. Watch for whipsaw price action because there are two key pieces to today’s Fed announcements. The first is the rate decision. The second is the policy statement with should offer clues about future rate moves.
World markets are cautiously waiting for comments from the Federal Reserve Board on monetary policy. It is widely expected that the key rate will be lowered on Wednesday. In addition to the well-known fears about the trade conflicts and the slowdown of the U.S. economy, there are suddenly appeared problems in the repo market.
Relief is set to sweep across financial markets after Saudi energy minister pulled down the threat of an escalation in geopolitical tensions in the region, and by stating the Oil production output will be fully back online by the end of September.
With economic data on the lighter side, the market focus will be on Brexit chatter and the FOMC. For the Loonie, inflation figures will also influence.
Markets react relatively sluggishly to the events of the beginning of the week. Oil remains at elevated levels, climbing13% since the beginning of the week.
Uncertainty over how the U.S will respond to the attacks on Saudi oil feeds could leave the markets tentative ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 98.145, the direction of the December U.S. Dollar Index the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 98.115.
Attacks on Saudi oil fields drove demand for the Yen and the Loonie as oil prices surged. Johnson is in focus later today and the GBP needs progress.
It’s risk-on through the Asian session as the markets respond to the ECB move. On the day ahead, the focus will be on Brexit and U.S retail sales figures.
The U.S. President has called on the Fed to reduce the key rate to zero or even lower so that the government could refinance its debt. In his latest attack on the Fed, Trump used his favourite method – raising the requirements above all rational levels to retreat and still win.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 98.640, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 98.685.
Tensions between the U.S and China ease, supporting risk ahead of the heavily anticipated ECB monetary policy decision later today.
The Aussie Dollar takes another hit this morning. With stats on the lighter side on the day ahead, the focus will remain on Brexit and monetary policy.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 98.395, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 98.350.