Canada markets close in 51 minutes

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (XIN)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
Add to watchlist
0.8452+0.0412 (+5.12%)
As of 02:13PM EDT. Market open.
Sign in to post a message.
  • M
    MAX
    Still wondering why 1895.hk is still halted. What is the reason?
  • K
    Kyle
    When 50,000 shares can increase the stock price 12 cents (going from .76 to .88, we are currently in a time period where very little volume can spike the price. The Hong Kong real estate stocks have continued to stabilize over the last week and half. The lowest book value I can find is also .07 for Guangzhou however that is company that is in severe distress and has multiple sales at extreme losses in Tier 3 cities. Otherwise the book values for most of these companies is in the .2 to .5 range. With that information it is most likely this should be trading in the 2.40 to 3.00 range once they can get their reporting up to date and/or more demand for these shares takes place. Country Garden has been the primary stock I have been following in comparison to XIN. Country Garden has had a little better access to debt than XIN, but it hasn't had projects like London or Bloom that XIN has had. I think it is a fair comparison for what XIN should currently be valued which is in the $2.40 to $3 range.
  • T
    Tom104
    There was 1 additional sale at the Hell's Kitchen development completed on 6/15/22 for about $1.5M. The total sales count now stands at 20.
  • K
    Kyle
    Chinese property stocks were up 10% today. This was from housing sales in tier 1 and 2 cities jumping 43% week over week. Tier 3 cities did not see this jump and property values continued to decline in this Tier. Tier 1 city sale prices were up 3% compared to prices last year. This looks good from XIN and shows the turn in confidence in the real estate sector is occurring.
  • K
    Kyle
    If my calcs are correct, I think shortseller should be finished within next week or two.
  • K
    Kyle
    In a previous post it was state I was the last one here. That is not true there are several others here they just not post frequently. However the statement essentially was well others were here and left due to stock underperformance and you will leave too and that the party lights are about to go out.

    So lets talk rationally, why am I in this stock. I am in this stock because it is dirt dirt cheap. In a market where things are coming down to being overvalued in a higher interest rate market, that is not a problem for XIN. It is far below normal investment levels, however I am not stating that performance hasn't been earned. The lack of reporting is a red flag but not the red flag to Lucifer that it is to me. The other is The China real estate Market has essentially been under attack since summer 2019 for a variety of reasons. There is a big difference of me having a $1 purchase price average than a long termer who purchase in at $7, $8 or $10. What is my true downside which is for everyone - it is going to $0 in bankruptcy right. OK - we have established that, but even with an active shortseller realistically this stock can't go drastically lower from here unless there is major negative news.

    So lets look at the odds of bankruptcy. XIN has 2 major things going for it to avoid bankruptcy. 1. It built three foreign projects with 2 coming to sale in late 2021 in London and New York. Both markets have been hot and both will be creating good cash flow for XIN, add in the Osteen and additional sales and you have a nice life preserver for the company. The second is they have several buildings that were entirely presold. They can focus on those buildings to finish and then collect the agreed upon contracted prices. To me there is very little risk they miss on their June interest payment. The second is China is reversing course on the real estate market and I think this is just the start. They have lowered interest rates already. They announced a big stimulus, but the third is China is behind the US in growth for the first time since 1970. As much as China wants to fix the real estate market, I think they have done enough to do that, they need the real estate market to improve to increase the growth rate in China. Add in the elections this fall for Xi things should really begin to calm down in the real estate market. Is there risk, some I would put bankruptcy risk at 10-20% in the next 12 months. However, if the market improves in China, China begins to allow more loans to the real estate market then things completely change for XIN. Add in that if they then get 2021 reported by the end of this summer and get on a more normalized reporting timeline, then yes purchasing in the $1 range will be a thing of the past as this will be in the $2.50 to $5 range. Laugh at me if you want Lucifer, I have done well on a couple other similar investments. This does have the chance of blowing up, it also has a very high chance of paying off handsomely. Time will tell.
  • K
    Kyle
    Mortgage loans in China surged to $288 billion after bottoming out in April at $217 billion. Loans to businesses also soared. The lower interest rates are starting to move the needle in the housing sector. I would like to see the loans continue even stronger this summer above $300 billion. I will also keep an eye on the bond prices and other Chinese building companies. I think there will start to be a fairly strong bounce.
  • K
    Kyle
    The Chinese hong konk exchange for real estate stocks is up 2-3% again. They are all up between 10-20%. So far we have not seen that with XIN.
  • L
    Lucifer
    @Kyle. When you talk to yourself do you hear voices responding? Just curious, carry on......
  • K
    Kyle
    Pre- market is doing decent. Honestly of the 2 delays, this one is much more reasonable, China especially Shanghai has had lockdowns in place. It makes sense an auditor couldn't get to a site or two. China is beginning to ease up on its Covid protocols. So this hopefully will resolve itself in a quicker manner than last year. As to the housing market, I believe it is going to start to pick up significantly this summer in China and that China will likely ease up on the three red lines out of necessity and let the banks begin to lend again. At a $1 and change this is still incredibly cheap. When you are buying something for 10 cents on the dollar obviously its going to be something that is going to need a lot of polishing and work. However there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
  • K
    Kyle
    Yesterday for short Volume accounted for 76% of all sales for yesterday. It appears those that own the shares are not selling at these prices and the only one controlling the price is the shortseller.
  • K
    Kyle
    Volume is drying up. I truly think most shares are currently in long term holders hands at these levels. 7000 shares traded yesterday. Under 2000 as of today. However not many wanting or needing to buy right now either.
  • K
    Kyle
    I posted an article but the board removed it. It is on the front page talking about China reducing interest rates on loans trying to get the real estate market going again. This is the second policy in as many months where the government appears to be doing a U turn and trying to support the real estate market again. This along with hopefully ending covid lockdowns which have primarily been in southern China will hopefully begin to take the real estate market off of life support. First hurdle is reporting the financials.
  • M
    MMI
    LUCIFER IS TOAST... He Lives in Eternal Damnation, He's here to Spread His Evil. Don't Fall for it.
  • K
    Kyle
    By tomorrow night midnight we should have the annual report. I really don't understand why they wait until the absolute last minute.
  • K
    Kyle
    Within the next 72 hours the 2021 financial report should be submitted and released. My best guess would be today after hours, however the latest would be Wednesday with their agreement with the SEC.
  • a
    anon
    Lots of new announcements with the parking spaces saga on 1895 xinyuan PM services. You can see them on aastocks. Shouldn't be material to the group, but is still taking time to sort out.
  • I
    Iowabeancounter
    I am disappointed that XIN has sought an extension for the 2021 20-F. I can understand that the Covid quarantine could make it impossible for the auditors to complete their work. What I don't understand is why XIN waited till the last day to request the extension, when they knew they weren't going to be able to file on time, as evidenced by their statement that the report would be complete within 2 months of the lifting of the quarantine. This leads me to believe that they were not forthcoming with the SEC when the filed for a 15 day extension. They knew then that the 20-F could not be timely filed. JMHO GLTA
  • K
    Kyle
    Country Gardens and a few other real estate companies did a china bond offering. It does appear lending is starting to increase for the real estate sector. The market has been tight for sales due to the Covid shut downs.