|Bid||112.41 x 1000|
|Ask||112.48 x 1000|
|Day's Range||112.24 - 114.04|
|52 Week Range||85.78 - 115.49|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.67|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||25.43|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||2.12 (1.86%)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with...
(Bloomberg) -- Target Corp. has its work cut out for it as the mass-merchant retailer is facing difficult year-over-year same-store sales and traffic comparisons, broad macro concerns, and tariff exposures.Analysts are hoping that Target’s Deal Days, its answer to Amazon.com’s Prime Day, and digital sales strength are enough to overcome a Father’s Day weekend technology glitch that prevented customers from making purchases at its stores for a two-hour period on June 15 and unkind weather trends in the earlier part of the quarter.This quarter’s set up comes on top of a 6.5% same-store sales gain a year ago, which was the best in 13 years amid Toys ”R” Us and Babies ”R” Us U.S. store closures, and an “unprecedented” 6.4% growth in traffic.In addition, the shares are up 31% this year compared with a gain of 21% for Walmart Inc., and 16% for the S&P 500, and not far from a record high. With only 4% upside to the average 12-month price target of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, one might say shares are priced for perfection.Here’s what analysts are saying ahead of the report:Credit Suisse, Seth SigmanKey indicators including Nielsen, SpendTrend, Credit Suisse’s department store index are supportive of comparable sales in the 2.5%-3.0% range, including weakness in temperature-sensitive categories such as apparelStill expects strong digital growth, even on top of 2QFY19’s 41% growthSigman recently lowered his 2Q gross margin estimate given Walmart and Macy’s markdown comments and Target’s system-wide register outage in JuneTarget Deal Days, held in July, was likely a positive for comp. sales“With macro concerns in the backdrop, we believe it has to be a relatively clean quarter for TGT stock to work,” Sigman saidRates outperform, price target $90Telsey Advisory, Joseph FeldmanEstimates e-commerce growth of ~25%; to benefit from debut of online Deal Days, website enhancements, expansion on online products, faster fulfillmentExpects continued outperformance in baby and toys, given continued share gains following the closings of Toys ”R’ Us stores; seasonal and summer products, supported by the partnership with Vineyard Vines and the newly launched Sun Squad collection; fashion and home should benefit from new brands and products New tariffs on List 4 items should result in higher costs, but believes Target’s ability to take a portfolio approach to dealing with higher costs should offer flexibility; its current forecast covers a wide range of assumptionsRates outperform, price target $92Barclays, Karen Short“All eyes will be on TGT’s ability to ‘comp the comp’ as the company laps the benefits in the baby and toys categories” last year due to the closures of the Toys "R" Us and Babies "R" Us storesUnfavorable weather likely drove additional markdowns in seasonal categories, but this is well understood by the StreetWill be watching forecast update, traffic and ticket trends and category performance, digital growth/fulfillment cost trendsRates overweight, price target $95Bloomberg Intelligence, Jennifer Bartashus2Q comparable sales “may moderate slightly, as the company laps the closing of Toys ‘R’ Us and Babies ‘R’ Us stores and faces difficult comparisons vs. a year ago,” when total comp. sales rose 6.5%Seasonal merchandise sales may have also been dampened by poor weather early in the quarter and Target had a nationwide point-of-sale outage on June 15, disrupting in-store sales for several hoursRemodeled stores continue to generate traffic and same-store sales lifts, aiding overall performance, while store-based fulfillment is aiding online sales growth by enabling same-day services and reducing shipping time and costs Quo Vadis Capital, John ZolidisSales drivers include increased sales of private label, share capture from defunct competitors, e-commerce growth, the benefit from remodels, and a strong consumer backdropZolidis is looking for the 9th straight quarter of traffic and comp. sales growth; believes Target is taking share in e-commerce, as wellSales growth and margin stabilization should be favorable for the sharesJust the Numbers2Q adjusted EPS from continuing operations estimate $1.62; TGT forecast $1.52 to $1.722Q sales estimate $18.25 billion (range $18.04 billion to $18.47 billion)2Q comparable sales +3.00% (Consensus Metrix average of 19 estimates); TGT forecast comp. sales up low- to mid-single digits2Q gross margin estimate 30.2% 3Q adjusted EPS estimate $1.16 (range $1.11 to $1.21) FY adjusted EPS estimate $5.93; saw $5.75-$6.05TGT forecast Fiscal 2020 comp. sales up low- to mid-single digits and a mid-single digit increase in operating incomeData14 buys, 13 holds, 1 sell; average price target $90 Implied 1-day share move following earnings: 7.2% Shares rose after 6 of prior 12 earnings announcements Adjusted EPS beat estimates in 8 of past 12 quarters Shares up 2.4% in past 5 days vs SPX Index down 0.5% Shares up 3.5% in past year vs SPX Index up 1.9% TimingEarnings release expected Aug. 21 before market open Conference call websiteTo contact the reporter on this story: Janet Freund in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Catherine Larkin at firstname.lastname@example.org, Jim SilverFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The next time it seems as if the sky is falling, pull up the trading volume in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker: SPY) for a reality check.Last Wednesday was one of those days. The S&P 500 Index was nearing a 3% drop, and it looked as if maybe this could be the Big One. It felt different this time. The yield curve had just inverted, which has a near-perfect record of predicting a recession. All was lost. Yet, late in the day, SPY’s volume was still a sleepy $38 billion, about half of what it tends to experience during intense sell-offs. SPY’s lackluster volume didn’t jibe with hardly anything else going on. Not the price drop, not the headlines, not the Twitterverse. It was pretty much alone in its quietude.But the low volume turned out to be prescient — showing then in the darkest of hours what now seems obvious in retrospect: Traders and investors simply weren’t that concerned. The moderate volume also suggested that even the smallest catalyst would trigger a rebound. And it did. The market went up on Thursday after Wal-Mart earnings. It then rose 1.5% on Friday, too.Wednesday provided yet another example of how SPY’s volume is truly a reliable fear gauge and a decent leading indicator. I’ve been using it for about a decade, and it’s proved to be a trusty tool in measuring the depth and breadth of fear as well as how much of the noise out there is, well, just noise.The reason it works so well as a fear gauge is that SPY is the undisputed king of liquidity, with trading volume of about $20 billion a day on average — multiple times more than any other equity with an unparalleled amount of options tied to it as well. SPY has grown to be something of a sun in the middle of the equity solar system, with its volume acting as a thermometer of market activity and nerves.It’s arguably a broader, more democratic version of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, to which it is highly correlated. But unlike the VIX, which only measures activity(1) of professional institutional investors, SPY measures the activity of all types of investors and is a fixture in portfolios. Because of its liquidity and low cost, it is used as a replacement for — and has attributes of — futures, single securities and mutual funds. Nothing has a broader and more diverse base of both domestic and foreign user base — institutions, traders, hedge funds, advisers and individual investors. From Bridgewater to Aunt Edna, everyone plays in this sandbox.And when bad news hits, SPY tends to be the first thing many investors reach for, especially when they get blindsided and have no time to run analysis or want to quickly tweak their exposure, or get short the market, without disturbing their other investments. In addition, when implied futures funding costs rise, it tends to chase more traders to SPY, lifting its volume. If and when the fear spreads beyond the itchy-trigger-finger trading crowd to the steadier-handed advisers and retail investors, volume will start to boom in SPY.The threshold that tends to separate major freak-outs (my technical term) from the more short-lived, garden-variety sell-offs that tend to have quick rebounds is $60 billion. On days when the volume surpasses that amount, the market has a negative return on average in the following month.There have been no days above $60 billion this year. This is in contrast to last year, when there were a few — namely around “Volmageddon” in February, when SPY traded $80 billion and $93 billion on back-to-back days. The fear was for real and arguably foreshadowed what ended up being the first down year in the market in a decade. Although 2018 couldn’t hold a candle to 2008, which is still the undisputed champ in $60 billion-plus days.Over the past 10 years, SPY’s volume has also highlighted the difference between a sell-off related to geopolitics, earnings, trade or whatever President Donald Trump has tweeted most recently and one related to the Fed. The first tends to be like a flesh wound while the other is akin to an existential crisis. It seems that as long as the market thinks the Fed has its back, sell-offs tend to be short-lived regardless of the breathless headlines.But what made last Wednesday a new kind of test for the “People’s Fear Gauge” is that the media coverage was so especially dark this time around. This was more than just the usual Trump tweet or trade war-type hysterics. This one involved the “R” word thanks to the inverted yield curve. In fact, the media mentioned the word “recession” much more last week than it had in years. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague, Mohammed El-Erian, even worried that these “alarmist headlines” could cause real damage to investor psychology and the economy.But it turned out people largely ignored it all. The SPY volume sent a clear signal, but then the flows and the subsequent rebound backed it up. I also did an informal Twitter poll that showed that three-fourths of investors did nothing to alter their portfolios over the past few weeks.This showed a clear disconnect between investors and the media. So, who’s right? I’ve heard some say investors are too used to buying the dip and leaning on the Fed and are missing the signs of a significant correction. I’ve also heard some say that the media has lost its effect on investors by overplaying the negative too much. Maybe it’s a little bit of both.Whatever the truth, SPY’s volume can be a reliable in-the-moment way to measure the gap.(1) Concerns have also been raised about the possible manipulation of the VIX by monster trades. The Cboe has attempted to refute them. But I’m not here to take down the VIX, just to share my discovery of a complementary gauge.To contact the author of this story: Eric Balchunas at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Eric Balchunas is an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence focused on exchange-traded funds.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
What's Next for Walmart Stock and a Target earnings preview on the latest episode of the Full-Court Finance podcast from Zacks Investment Research.
In a world of large, faceless corporations, it can sometimes be nice to think of family values in business. What are the biggest family-owned businesses around?
Investing.com - This week investors will be watching to see how the Federal Reserve may respond to recession fears whipped up by the inversion of the Treasury yield curve.
Walmart released impressive Q2 results yesterday. Its performance was driven primarily by its growth engines, the US and Walmex (mainly Mexico) regions.
Markets were lower during the beginning of the trading session on Aug 15, following China's comments of taking retaliatory measures against Trump's tariffs threat.