Ventas, Inc. (VTR)

I continue to be baffled by the share price. VTR mgmt knows what they are doing and they are delivering solid quarters which meet forecast, time after time. They execute ongoing businesses and seem to acquire smart investments for future returns.

If they paid out 90% of FFO, the annual dividend would be about $2.50, not $1.80. There is room to grow both the share price and payout.

I'd hoped to see a dividend close to $3 by now, and that isn't happening. But I'm confident in a growing dividend and share price. The company is well-run.

Nice quarter!

Excited about the Wake Forest and University of Washington investments… the Drexel building opened in July… they picked up an 88-unit assisted living memory care facility … AND a medical office building in Portland

Great place to be long - GLTA

Not sure what got said in the NaReit conference that caused VTR to drop today. I listened to it, they reaffirmed guidance, discussed some pretty helpful long term trends (limited new construction in their markets, coming significant increases in population of people in the '80s, etc) and were quite upbeat on their prospects. Maybe people were looking for an improvement in guidance? VTR tends to be conservative in guidance, so I didn't expect that!!

Based in the timing, VTR shares dropped BEFORE they were scheduled to start speaking, so maybe it was something else which did it.

Still think this is a great long term value. Management does have their act together and the wind is at their back for the next several years.

Well folks, we are up a long way from the bottom! Hope some of you were able to buy near the lows.
Now, let's consider the dividend going forward. Wondering what some of you think would happen with the share price under the conditions listed below. I have my thoughts shown out to the side.

* No change to the current dividend (Price goes over $50 by end of summer)

* 30 to 50% dividend cut (Price falls 10 to 15% from here but still over $40 by end of summer)

* Short term halt to the dividend (Price falls to 31 to 33 dollar range but recovers to 35 to 40 dollar range by end of summer)

I guess I'm the lone optimist left here, but there's good reason for my optimism. The quarterly results and cc were both strong. FFO is .73 this Q, forecast at .70 for next. Or $2.80-$3.00 prorated to an annual basis. And an annual dividend of $1.80, or $1 less than FFO. Dividend is easily covered.

From the call, the company is confident in the next year, a bit cautious in the very near term, with labor costs an issue they touched on repeatedly. But -- not as an excuse -- just as a reality they see now, resolving a bit over time.

This is a company with their act together, in strong markets with good near and longer term demand. They know how to manage costs, deploy capital efficiently and maintain growth. What they don't do is extend themselves into areas they don't know -- they stay focused on what they do well.

The share price got a modest bump after the report and call, though given how it had been beaten down, the bump could have been more. Still, if I read this in a vacuum, I'd say this is a $75 stock on its way to $90 in the next year or so. And its available at $54.

So did I buy more? Yup. will I buy more? At these levels, yup.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/31059341-0ab8-3810-90b3-ee1feeba61ce/ventas-inc-vtr-q3-2021.html

The price when you sell is what matters. Lower prices in between when you bought and when you sell are just part of the game. Too many investors these days need instant gratification to confirm their investments are OK. VTR is going to be OK. Just wait for it. That is something people in this world don’t do well anymore. Patience and waiting for something to work is a trait that has been lost. We would be better off most of the time if we would buy something high quality at a low relative price (like VTR) regardless of what the short term momentum chasers are doing and saying and just bury it and forget about it. Then dig it up in 10 years. Forget about what happens in between. You would be surprised at how wrong the momentum chasers are most of the time about the long term.

I get criticized for this philosophy as being too simple and too naive. I am told investing is much harder than that. Well it works for me. (Definitely not every time, but if I apply it consistently then it works enough to give me overall success). And so many people make it so much harder than they need to. It really isn’t that hard. Low prices of high quality assets lead to high future returns. High prices of those same assets lead to low future returns. Low prices of relatively good assets present opportunity for high future returns. So welcome this disconnect between value and price. Only care about price when it is time to sell. If my time horizon is 10 years or more the price today doesn’t matter. It only tells me if I should be a buyer or a seller.

Earnings tomorrow.

I can understand why VTR has been reluctant to raise the dividend so far. Covid, cost increases and interest rate moves complicate the outlook enough for them to be conservative.

But if this quarter is another strong one, I'd expect a dividend hike to at least 50 cents per quarter and possibly as high as 60 cents per quarter. Not sure if they'll announce the hike at the same time as earnings get reported, or at a later date.

If they don't raise the dividend based on this quarter's report, it makes it more likely they make a larger raise a few months down the road.

A year ago, I thought this could get to $70/share and a $3 annual dividend by mid-2022. Neither is likely, though $70 remains possible.

$3 dividend is less likely by mid-2022, but a .70-.75 quarterly dividend is possible this year.

Either way, I expect VTR to reach (or get very close to) both targets this year.

This is a great long term, conservative holding.

Ventas stock has recovered nearly all of its pandemic related capital loss and continue to move towards $60 per share. The company appears to have weathered the pansemic issues imopacting its stock, however it has not adjusted its dividend given the return to nearly full valuation. The stock was very ayttractive with a yield of 6% when I purchased it, however the current yield of 3% makes me question if it is safe to continue to hold. I would think that management would be feeling the pressure to reinstate the full dividend to keep sharehoulders from bailing out. I have already liquidated 35% of my holdings after making a nice 59% return on the cheap post pandemic crash shares I purchased in the 20s and 30s. Bottom line, for longs focusesd on dividend income with possibly better options, is Ventas still a hold?

08:34 AM EST, 02/20/2020 (MT Newswires) -- Ventas (VTR), a real estate investment trust company, reported Q4 2019 normalized funds from operations (FFO) of $0.93 per share, compared with $0.96 a year ago. That beat the Capital IQ consensus forecast of $0.92.

Revenue for the quarter was $996 million, up from $923.3 million. That beat the analysts' forecast of $977.9 million.

The company said it expects normalized FFO for full-year 2020 of $3.56 to $3.69.

The company noted that its Q4 2019 Normalized FFO per share included $0.01 of fees and a cash tax refund that will not carry over into 2020.

Price: 60.00, Change: +0.83, Percent Change: +1.40

This quarter's report suggests Ventas has a lot of upside. Normalized FFO (their primary metric) was 0.73, about $2.90 on an annual basis. Their dividend is $1.80.

10 months ago, I had this as a $70 stock with $3 dividend by mid-2022. 4 months ago, I said this was a $75 stock selling at $54. The share price hasn't budged, even as business conditions are significantly stronger (from the report: stronger pricing, higher occupancy). The weight on net operating income is labor cost. But if demand is strong and pricing is strong, I'm not losing sleep over labor costs. Strong demand will enable them to cover higher operating expenses.

A $3 annual dividend rate (0.75/quarter) in the middle of 2022 seems unlikely, though an increase seems likely at some point not too far down the road. They paid over $3 pre-pandemic and I'd expect their biz will be better than it was pre-pandemic in the near future. They've generally been conservative on changing dividend payout, making sure the underlying biz is solid before making a move. Wouldn't surprise me if the next boost is to .55 or 60 per quarter.

That said, the most recent report is likely to be followed up with similar quality reports in the upcoming quarters and a $70 share price is within reach by mid-2022.