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Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (UVE)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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As of 03:47PM EDT. Market open.
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64c per share
UVE shareholder equity decreasing and even adjusted net income is falling below last year's. Adjusted EPS fell to 64 cents per share for the quarter, down from 84 cents per quarter that the had last year. That is down 24%. If this is happening during the era of free money, what is going to happen now that the free money is ending?
A MESSAGE FROM THE EDITOR
An average hurricane season sees about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). However, researchers at Colorado State University are predicting 19 named storms and 9 hurricanes — 4 of them major — in 2022’s season. Our lead story this week takes a deeper look at the probability of this prediction coming to pass. We’ll also look at digital trends for insurers, explore the challenges in underwriting nonbinary drivers and learn why emotional intelligence is a cornerstone of the insurance industry.
– Assistant Editor Brittney Meredith-Miller
Merger with HRTG in the works?
One of a few green today in a huge sea of red!
Amazing, Donaghy is being compensated with 250,000 shares at an 11.80 exercise price.
I would hate to see his compensation package if he for instance failed to note that last minute charges would turn his prior positive public comments into a short seller's bonanza.
No accountability apparently to anyone, especially the shareholders.
Recent management changes.
They need OUTSIDE help. Promoting from within does nothing.
The insurance industry is one of the "shadiest" industries in the country. It is not surprising how the company "fooled" investors with their projections. Think about the way life insurance is sold. If the agent sells a term policy his commission is in the hundreds If he sells a cash policy (universal life, whole life, etc) his commission is in the thousands. Study the accounting of insurance companies. You need a PHD in insurance accounting to figure out where the money is coming from and going to,
UVE has now become a utility type investment. For another year, they failed to deliver the plan. Up through Oct, they were reaffirming guidance, borrowed $100M for "Growth", and then pre-announced a massive loss. Problem is, they cannot continue to deliver 77 cents of dividends when the company is only earning 60 to 65 cents. Every year they find a way to drive the company into a ditch. I am out after the next run up towards $20. The inflation that they are experiencing on claims is due to outrageous increases in building materials. I can testify to the validity of such as I am living that same nightmare as I build a home. I do not see that increase in building materials cooling off anytime soon. I just do not understand why UVE did not settle the claims from 2019 by the end of 2020. That was the reason for the horrible results last year.
I'm more interested in their recent debt sale. As a publicly traded company you don't just sell 100 million dollars in debt for no good reason. Acquisition? Stock buyback?
Me thinks there's something large in the works here that Mr Market doesn't know about yet.
5.5x forward earnings. that is like finding a unicorn in this market. bought few times this afternoon. price dropped every time after a purchase. unless there is a big seller or a large short seller cannot make out the price action. adding more if the market keeps dropping it.
I estimate 20-80% upside within the next year at the current market price of $27. Considering Sean Downes' recent comments about the second quarter being good, I estimate that current book value is around $16.35 per share, or 5% above Q1 book value (in line with their historical growth rates for BVPS). The normal trading range for the stock is 2-3X book value, which puts us in a range of $33 to $49. If it's a light hurricane season, I expect to see high ROE's and trading up around 3X book value. If it's a bad season, I'd expect it to be closer to 2X BV. Either way, the current price is a steal. Time to buy another 500 shares.
what happened to the quarterly dividend? they usually announce it by this time of the year. thoughts?
So at the end of October, a month into the 4th quarter, they reaffirm guidance of $2.75 - $3 shr EPS FY21. So they were predicting a minimum of $.63 Q4 EPS. Now the analysts are saying -1.61 which is $2.24 lower then the minimum guidance. How can things go that far south that fast without a major weather event? How can you be a month into the quarter and be that unaware of these adverse trends. Interesting that the $100 mil PP for "growth" was completed less than a month after. Also $.88 shr for prior years adverse development? Wow.
Buybacks are renewed.
Ya know - I never post, but always read, with interest, the comments posted for the stocks I own. For some reason, I feel compelled to post today for UVE.
I've owned UVE for almost 22 years; my average cost is $4.51/share. I sold 200 shares back in Jan. of 2018 @$28.40/share - good. Eight and a half months later I sold 100 shares for $50.45 - Great! And, I've continued to collect dividends on my remaining shares. I really hated the management (or lack thereof) and the way they conduct business. The current management and direction are much better, although it could be a LOT better. Obviously I'm here for the long haul, but if this stock ever busts out above $30/share, I'm gone.
And another minor hurricane that completely missed FL. UVE has zero policies in Texas, zero in Louisiana. Everything is aligning for 2021 EPS of over $2.50. 2022 will push $3.50 with the higher premiums.
Fednat had another unfavorable reserve adjustment from prior year claims. Does this mean we'll see the same thing on UVE's Q4 results? NO. But it's certainly possible and it's clearly what the analysts think with negative estimates. This is creating fear in the sector. We have a setup here for an absolutely massive rally if the Q4 results are good. If it's another negative Q4 we may see the price drop into the high teens with stock trading right around book value.
Looks like a 13 cent special dividend 29 total same as last year
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