|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's Range||12.77 - 12.77|
|52 Week Range||10.75 - 22.15|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.00|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||3.95|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||0.39 (3.07%)|
|1y Target Est||8.39|
The European Central Bank will hope this shows that its recently-announced bank stimulus measures might not be taken up on such a large scale as previously. If some of the most prolific users – Italian banks chief among them – of the ECB’s so-called “targeted longer-term refinancing operations” (known as TLTROs) are in better shape, then maybe it can start to wean the banking system off super-cheap funding. UniCredit on Tuesday raised with ease 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) of Additional Tier 1 hybrid bonds (deeply subordinated perpetual bonds with an issuer call after seven years) with a 7.5 percent yield.
Firms from Swedbank AB to Raiffeisen Bank International are alleged to have handled a broad range of suspicious transactions involving Russian money. What is clear, though, is that European banks have a problem detecting the movement of illicit funds, and one that will undoubtedly continue to add to their compliance costs. The absence of a single European Union body to tackle money laundering has exacerbated the deficiencies of fragmented oversight.
Sterling could give back recent gains, said UniCredit. Expectations are that the Brexit deadline will be extended or that Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal will be passed by parliament.
The scale of the economic weakness means the ECB will cut its growth and inflation forecasts on Thursday, and policy makers have set the scene for a debate on their response, including guidance on interest rates and support for banks. Negative rates have become a pet peeve for some euro-area banks because they can’t pass them on to depositors, and some policy makers have caught on to the problem -- France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau has highlighted “possible adverse consequences” for the transmission of monetary policy.
The European Central Bank is expected to reduce its growth and inflation forecasts, adjusting them to a more downbeat economic reality at its monetary policy meeting Thursday. The central bank shouldn’t announce targeted longer-term refinancing operations for troubled banks at this meeting, UniCredit says.
The main event for EUR/USD this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting, though the central bank’s decision is unlikely “to put any lasting pressure” on the currency pair, said UniCredit.
The tide looks to be turning for the pound, as the Brexit narrative shifts from fears of crashing out of the European Union this month toward expectations for a deal or delay. The currency is the best-performing in the Group-of-10 basket so far this year, with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May having seen off a lawmaker rebellion by promising a series of Parliament votes just weeks before the exit date. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and hedge funds have become bullish on sterling.
SpA (UCG.MI) and the European Investment Bank have signed agreements to provide Italian small and medium-size businesses credit lines worth 500 million euros ($569 million) for projects aimed at promoting female entrepreneurship and climate action, the lenders said Thursday. UniCredit and the EIB said the agreements signed consist of a EUR250 million credit line made available by the EIB and a commitment for a matching sum from UniCredit in support of beneficiary companies.
Italian government bonds have benefitted from yield hunting in the current environment of low core yields, said UniCredit.
EUR/USD is set to stay trapped between 1.13 and 1.14 as investors await key data releases later this week, including U.S. GDP and eurozone inflation, said UniCredit.
Some ECB watchers have started to voice concern that negative rates -- in place since June 2014 -- could become self-defeating as banks struggle to pass them on to depositors and may eventually be forced to curb credit. The public debate about policy options is getting louder as the ECB approaches its March 7 meeting, where officials are set to assess whether momentum has weakened enough to warrant new stimulus. Louis Harreau, a strategist at Credit Agricole in Paris, predicts the ECB will lift its deposit rate to zero from minus 0.4 percent by the end of this year, combining it with a “very strong” forward guidance that essentially promises to keep borrowing costs unchanged for the next 18 months.
For why, look no further than the U.S. President's threatened auto tariffs. The U.S. is looking at unilaterally imposing a 25 percent tariff on cars imported from abroad on the flimsy ground they are a threat to national security. Such a measure would be costly for Europe's export powerhouse of Germany, as my colleague Leonid Bershidsky has pointed out – but would also hit jobs in America’s auto industry as supply chains are disrupted.
Markets “are likely to get nervous” if next week’s vote delivers another defeat for Theresa May’s Brexit strategy, said UniCredit.
The cost of protection against wide swings in the pound has been falling, which “hardly seems justified,” Commerzbank said, considering the rising possibility of a no-deal Brexit.
As the dollar remains broadly firm, the euroe and the pound are likely to consolidate around $1.13 and $1.29 respectively, said UniCredit.
Italian banking shares moved higher on Monday following reports that their capital positions are above the levels required by the European Central Bank – in what analysts have described as "not so ...
Though trading below $1.30, the pound isn’t pricing in “a high probability of a disorderly Brexit,” UniCredit said.
The euro could test key support level at 1.1330 next week, said Societe Generale, given that Asian markets return from Chinese New Year celebrations to react to the latest negative U.S.-China trade developments....
SpA (UCG.MI) trade higher after the bank’s fourth-quarter net profit rose far above expectations, and the Italian lender reported an extraordinary positive tax effect. Net profit for the period was 1.73 billion euros ($1.97 billion) compared with EUR801 million a year earlier, UniCredit said Thursday. UniCredit shares traded 2.4% higher at 0801 GMT while Italy’s benchmark FTSE MIB index is down 0.3%.
Sterling could fall if the Bank of England signals further concerns regarding the health of the British economy as a result of Brexit, said UniCredit.