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Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund (U-UN.TO)
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It's Bull time or am I only one who saw doul e bottom in uranium
Define “utility uranium inventory (U3O8, UF6, EUP, fuel rods)”!
Inventory according to utility engineers (when I hear them talk) = stockpiles on site and at convertor/enricher under their own account + all the already contracted future U3O8 deliveries.
Inventory according to me = only stockpiles on site and at the convertor/enricher under their own account.
Haha, Utility engineers consider already contracted future uranium deliveries/future uranium productions as part of their current utility inventory.
So already contracted uranium that still needs to be mined and/or that convertors need to buy back and/or that carrytraders need to buy back further in the future because they have been decreasing their stockpiles during backwardation are considered as part of the current utility inventory too than :-)
It’s like Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) saying they have 5,000,000 lbs uranium inventory today. Well, yes and no. They will have those 5 Mlbs by December 2025. By June 2022 only ~50% of those 5 Mlbs uranium have actually been delivered.
—> A lot of double counting of inventories
US utilities only having 16 months worth of stockpiles on site and at convertor/enricher under their own account is close to the truth. They will have to contract for huge amounts of future uranium supply in coming months and in 2023/2024.
I will not be surprised to see the uranium spotprice reach 80 USD/lb in the coming months, due to loss of underfeeding and possible overfeeding combined with the restart of Converdyn Metropolis convertor early 2023.
Do you really think that utilities and convertors that need new produced UF6 will wait to secure more uranium for short term delivery until Metroplis has restarted?
They will secure U3O8 before the restart with delivery in2022/early2023 (imo).
Future will tell how close I was with this call.
And in the longer term (2023/2024) it's simple math. If not, a lot of nuclear reactors will fall short of uranium supply in 2024/2028. Because it takes years to get an uranium project in production. For instance, Arrow of Nexgen Energy needs at least 4 years from the construction start to get it producing the first uranium.
Even utility engineers are now openly saying that they expect much higher uranium prices in the coming months/2023 (One was talking about possibly 100 USD/lb). They expect US utilities to contract huge quantities of new future uranium supply starting a few months from now. Future will tell.
$URA $URNM $DNN $CCJ
What was that $14.00 spike early in the morning? Is somebody trying to manipulate something?
Global primary uranium consumption in 2022 is ~200 million pounds annually, while primary uranium supply in 2022 is estimated around 135 million pounds annually (UxC and TradeTech)
The ~65 million supply deficit is filled by decreasing above ground available uranium stockpiles, until they aren’t there anymore ;-)
Those stockpiles in USA and EU reached critical low levels (confirmed a couple weeks ago).
The last commercial available uranium stockpiles will become unavailable even before being sold! :-)
When scarcity of those stockpiles is widely confirmed in near future & upward pressure from lost underfeeding (Confirmed by Cameco 2weeks ago) hits uranium market, owners of those last stockpiles will not sell them anymore or ask 80+ USD/lb for it.
For more information on why, look at my more detailed posts on twitter (Napalm_1_)
$URNM $URA $DNN $URG
With a discount of -12.79%, that's free money. With this drop, today the discount is going close to -13.5%
Nice discount to NAV today!
I’m a long term uranium bull.
And I know based on my own DD that without the speculation part of the uranium investment, uranium transaction will be signed at at least 80 USD/lb somewhere in the future.
Cameco also confirmed a couple day’s ago that if the market wants to restart their US assets, at least 80 USD/lb will be needed for that.
Due to Material cost, Fuel cost, Labour cost,... going significantly higher, 80USD/lb became the new 60USD/lb
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if we reach 80 USD/lb somewhere in 2022. And if not, it will happen a bit later.
Uranium spotprice is most likely going to significantly overshoot that needed 80 USD/lb, like it did in 2004-2007, but here I only consider the part based on the needs of the sector being 80 USD/lb.
Uranium spotprice on Friday was ~54.50 USD/lb
Friday Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ended with a discount over NAV of 7.02% meaning that SPUT (U.UN on the TSX or SRUUF on the US stock exchange) can be bought at a value of ~50.70 USD/lb for each physical uranium pound they own, while uranium spotprice is at ~54.50 USD/lb at the moment.
What follows is no financial advice. I’m just showing a way to beat inflation in 2022/2024 without being exposed to mining risk by buying physical uranium that needs to be at at least 80USD/lb soon or later. Please do your own DD before investing
(Part1, See next post)
$CCJ $URA $URNM $UUUU $DNN
Very bullish conference call today from Cameco.
Here a couple things from the Q&A after the presentation:
Cameco: “Panic hitting enrichment right now & But the impact of this on UF6 and U3O8 has still to come” :-)
Cameco: “underfeeding is probably gone” :-D
Cameco: “after the enrichment (SWU), we expect conversion to be next”
The consequence: I bought a bit more Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( U.UN on TSX and SRUUF on US stick exchange, if you were wondering)
This isn’t financial advice. Please do your own DD before investing.
$URNM $URA $DNN $UUUU
How undervalued is the entire uranium sector at the moment (an update)?
The combined market cap of the ENTIRE uranium sector today (~31.92B USD, May 14,2022) =
- 4.3% of market cap of Tesla TSLA (750B USD). Knowing that Tesla has PE ratio of ~98! (BMW has PE ratio of 4.20, Mercedes PE ratio of 3.12, Ford PE ratio of 4.55…)
- 16.6% of market cap of Disney DIS (192B USD). Knowing that Disney has a PE ratio of ~62.5!
- 7.4% of market cap of NVIDIA NVDA (430B USD). Knowing that NVIDIA has a PE ratio of ~44.8!
- 5.9% of market cap of Meta Platforms (541B USD)
- 2.8% of market cap of Amazon (1127B USD)
- 2.1% of market cap of Alphabet (Google) (1509B USD)
- 1.4% of market cap of Saudi Arabian Oil Co (Saudi Aramco) (2212 billion USD)
- 24.2% of market cap of Petrochina (132B USD)
- 43.1% of market cap of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (74B USD)
- 8.3% of market cap of Exxon Mobil Corp $XOM (384B USD)
- 9.4% of market cap of Chevron Corp (340B USD)
- 14.7% of market cap of Shell (217B USD)
- 31.6% of market cap of BP (101B USD)
- 32.9% of market cap of Petrobras (97B USD)
- 0.9% of combined market cap of 8 oil companies mentioned above (3557B USD)!
But oil demand =price elastic. When oil price goes too high,oil consumption decreases (remember oil crisis) & we are already noticing the first signs of it.
Uranium demand =price INelastic, because it only represence 5%-10% of total electricity production cost from nuclear reactor & because nuclear power = baseload power.
- 0.19% of market cap of all sustainable investing assets in 2020 in USA (17100B USD)!
—> easiest way to get exposure to the uranium sector: $URNM $URA $HURA
I would buy another 1500 shares, but I can't decide what to sell in such a swap.
We were at a 7% discount to NAV on Friday, guessing today that discount is over 11%?
This is the buy of the year.
Now that the market is closed, maybe it could be interesting to look for my 7 tweets long posts of today on twitter. (Napalm_1_ )
In those tweets with important attachments I try to give an idea of the current situation in the nuclear and uranium sector.
And the conclusion of those tweets is that I will not be surprised to see the uranium price reach 80 USD/lb in 2022.
Future will tell if I got it right are not, but read my explanation ;-)
$DNN $GLATF $URG $URNM $URA
new here...why is this dropping?
Uranium forming bear flag. I'm very bullish but not buying back in till uranium gets down $45
Thank you Santa
who's adding to there position here during the upcoming trading week?
No NYSE listing. The SEC does not want U.S. investors buying uranium. You should only buy investments that are "approved" by the government. Pathetic. In reality, this will not affect uranium investing at all. I think we are better off now that the uncertainty over the potential listing is removed.
A recession won't impact uranium miners negatively. Good buy opportunity.
I just added to my SPUT position.
I sold somethings non-uranium to do this move.
I invest based on fundamentals and this sell off is just silly.
This isn’t financial advice! Please do your own DD before investing.
$URNM $URA $HURA $DNN
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