Excellent News Release, Copper up 2% and TMQ down 4%. Yup, that makes sense.
J
Perhaps, most TMQ investors saw Senator Sullivan article this week, posted by various Alaskan media sources. He explains the situation in clear, concise way. Ambler project has big strategic value for the country; however, all important natural resource development are delayed and obstructed by present DC administration. Ambler investors better be prepared to wait till next, more pro-business administration comes to power.
K
Copper closed 2021 above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Copper’s 50-day moving average is above its 200-day moving average. Copper closed 2021 up almost 27% for the year and less than 9% below its 52-week high.
Despite this, TMQ closed 2021 at 54% of its 52-week high of $3.06 a share, a high established on June 1, 2021. TMQ did this after rallying $.21 off its low of the day during the December 31, 2021 trading session.
Copper’s high on June 1, 2021 was $4.71, $.25 higher than the 2021 closing price of $4.46.
Trilogy Metals Advances World-Class Copper Project with CEO Tony Giardini (19.91m of 11.76% CuEq)
www.youtube.com
D
Derisking of acreage outside of the current asset is an interesting proposition. Is there going to be a land grab or does TMQ get to slowly expand its footprint beyond the existing venture with NANA? Or does this mean TMQ and NANA have the basis to create another offering/develop it solo?
J
looking for a 10 bagger. what are my odds of finding that here?
D
Big dump today... could be the next round of dilution being priced in by people in the know. Tax loss selling alone will take this down to 1.50 by Thanksgiving and then 1.00 by Christmas time. No reason to be buying here, stock is adrift for years. Just when is that road being built? Yeah, not for years.
M
Timeline: South32 enacts joint venture, access road is approved, spot metal prices push above original valuation.
Result: Valuation is lower than before any of these milestones were achieved. The intrinsic value of Trilogy has been building and building and its price has been lagging behind. How long can price stay disconnected from value?
P.S. Zero value for bornite or any of the 2-8 other Arctic like areas in the VMS belt - you get those for free,
D
Ugh. The Pres/CEO(?) just provided a 3-5yr lead time before production starts.
I take it to mean that operational revenue will not be starting anytime soon. Without South32 looking to lock in ownership over TMQ or the entry of some other firm right now, not sure what I can expect to see in the short term as a catalyst to the share price or valuation of the firm except for this formal go ahead on the road.
A NPV of 1.4 billion that seems to be somewhat mid to back loaded with the current 12 year mine life to the Artic and Bornite mines (I understand there is an estimation for a 70+ life for the full district).
What is there to make the share price go to $5 in what time frame?
New thread: When I saw the news release today on mining test results from the Sunshine prospect, I realized that I did not know on what asset base Trilogy is being valued. Emailed investor relations to confirm what I was seeing on the website (quick response - highly unusual) and it is even more interesting than I thought:
"The only asset that has a valuation on it is the Arctic project. We completed a prefeasibily study on the asset in 2018 which calculated an after tax NPV of $1.4 billion. The rest of the assets (bornite sunshine etc) are still at the exploration stage and therefore we do not have an NPV for them as we have not calculated a value for them. At some point we will probably do a preliminary economic assessment on them which is a rough estimate age of the NPV."
The Sunshine news release was talking about dozens (as in plural of dozen) prospects that have yet to be explored.
is Trilogy to be valued at (1.4 billion NPV) * 12 * X? How does one value a company that is only beginning to prove out its asset base?
D
Some thoughts: - is the state government shutting down all state run activity? Is the road building down by private contractors or the state? May not matter if the state defers non-essential activity? - what are the odds of fiscal stimulus efforts given the hit to the oil markets (as mentioned separately)? - was reading about the anti-microbial properties of copper and how it could play a role in the redesign of medical care facilities (key fixtures would be benefit from being made/covered in copper). Seems a legitimate report and could be responsibly implemented as opposed to those fake investment idea pitches.
D
The Stonegate report is underwhelming considering the information presented and/or available. It does not reflect the recent statements regarding how much precious metal is showing. No real movement in the valuation despite the updated NPV and IRR with current spot prices. Bornite is introduced with a yawn and no sense of the unproven potential.
S
Good luck to everyone today, i have a feeling that today’s movement will probably set the direction for the next week or two.
M
Funny owning part of this business long term. It’s like... do the next 3 months of uncertainty have anything to do with the cash flows coming out of ambler 7-30 years in the future? I don’t even care about the stock price for the next few years, it’s traded based on nothing. Even metal prices in the next few years mean nothing.
S
CEO bought another 4,600 shares @ $1.81 Friday. He had purchases 4 out of 5 days last week.
You can all thank for me for this uptick - I sold my long position on Friday (to roll over it over into an expiring call option for another stock).
They obviously were waiting for me to do something like this before popping up.
Unfortunately, I have Dec 2.5 Calls for 75% of that position so they have not gotten rid of me.
It will be interesting to see how this moves; I am still wondering how it can realize the value of the assets when they will not be accessing them until the road is ready in 2-3 years? I would think they could commence mining operations in the here and now on some level but I do not know enough about this matter to make an educated investment.
Good luck to all and myself; I will be still around.
O
Unfortunately can't hold a gain and looks to go lower (52 week lows inbound imo). I can't express how frustrated / disappointed I am with this stock. 1 step forward 5 steps back.... I would love to throw in the towel but I'm stuck in the classic trap of "But I'm not selling here at the lows" mentality.
I'm going to simply hold and hope (Hope is NOT an investment strategy - but I'm at a loss with this one).
Despite this, TMQ closed 2021 at 54% of its 52-week high of $3.06 a share, a high established on June 1, 2021. TMQ did this after rallying $.21 off its low of the day during the December 31, 2021 trading session.
Copper’s high on June 1, 2021 was $4.71, $.25 higher than the 2021 closing price of $4.46.
Tax loss selling alone will take this down to 1.50 by Thanksgiving and then 1.00 by Christmas time.
No reason to be buying here, stock is adrift for years.
Just when is that road being built? Yeah, not for years.
South32 enacts joint venture, access road is approved, spot metal prices push above original valuation.
Result:
Valuation is lower than before any of these milestones were achieved. The intrinsic value of Trilogy has been building and building and its price has been lagging behind. How long can price stay disconnected from value?
P.S.
Zero value for bornite or any of the 2-8 other Arctic like areas in the VMS belt - you get those for free,
I take it to mean that operational revenue will not be starting anytime soon. Without South32 looking to lock in ownership over TMQ or the entry of some other firm right now, not sure what I can expect to see in the short term as a catalyst to the share price or valuation of the firm except for this formal go ahead on the road.
A NPV of 1.4 billion that seems to be somewhat mid to back loaded with the current 12 year mine life to the Artic and Bornite mines (I understand there is an estimation for a 70+ life for the full district).
What is there to make the share price go to $5 in what time frame?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trilogy-metals-provides-project-activities-113000259.html
"The only asset that has a valuation on it is the Arctic project. We completed a prefeasibily study on the asset in 2018 which calculated an after tax NPV of $1.4 billion. The rest of the assets (bornite sunshine etc) are still at the exploration stage and therefore we do not have an NPV for them as we have not calculated a value for them. At some point we will probably do a preliminary economic assessment on them which is a rough estimate age of the NPV."
The Sunshine news release was talking about dozens (as in plural of dozen) prospects that have yet to be explored.
is Trilogy to be valued at (1.4 billion NPV) * 12 * X? How does one value a company that is only beginning to prove out its asset base?
- is the state government shutting down all state run activity? Is the road building down by private contractors or the state? May not matter if the state defers non-essential activity?
- what are the odds of fiscal stimulus efforts given the hit to the oil markets (as mentioned separately)?
- was reading about the anti-microbial properties of copper and how it could play a role in the redesign of medical care facilities (key fixtures would be benefit from being made/covered in copper). Seems a legitimate report and could be responsibly implemented as opposed to those fake investment idea pitches.
They obviously were waiting for me to do something like this before popping up.
Unfortunately, I have Dec 2.5 Calls for 75% of that position so they have not gotten rid of me.
It will be interesting to see how this moves; I am still wondering how it can realize the value of the assets when they will not be accessing them until the road is ready in 2-3 years? I would think they could commence mining operations in the here and now on some level but I do not know enough about this matter to make an educated investment.
Good luck to all and myself; I will be still around.
I'm going to simply hold and hope (Hope is NOT an investment strategy - but I'm at a loss with this one).