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Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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26.05-1.02 (-3.77%)
As of 02:32PM EST. Market open.
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  • J
    Jason
    Bank of Montreal says $77 for WTI through 2022 and they tend to be pretty conservative in their estimates, so good news. The Royal Bank are saying that they expect a higher for longer, strong demand environment, over the next few years. Given what BMO and RBC are saying, and what Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are saying in the US, it looks like $80-$85 oil is a good bet over the next couple years. Looking forward to this week, whatever it may bring!
  • a
    arty
    Market is getting shook up and nothing has happened yet. But it will. Nice to be invested in a company making money and will room for price appreciation during this time. Expect some news on ncib, sale of norway asset (pay a big piece of debt), further debt reductions. See about $8 ave price increase benefitting bottom line. So yes more profits and more cash. Stronger company. Safe investment w upside potential and better dividends on the way
  • D
    DAVE
    (85-68)*240/1460=2.79
    where $85 is assumed 2022 average WTI
    $68 is 2021 Average WTI (actual is $67.99)
    $240 is millions of USD additional margin per $1 change in Brent
    1,460 is millions of shares outstanding
    =$2.79usd ($3.50cd) additional EPS that we can expect over 2021 EPS to be announced Feb 2

    If $85usd WTI ends up being 2022 average and using PE of 10
    then share value should be $27.90usd $35.00cd based only on the extra profit from WTI price change

    If we add in 2021 EPS of (guess at) $2.65cdn then 2.65+3.50=6.15
    At PE 10 we should expect to see share price of $61.50cd
    PE 12 $73.80cd

    I am holding with the expectation of share price doubling this year. (plus div)
  • T
    The Realist
    Eight trading days left before Suncor's Q4 results. It is a given that results will be great and free cash flow will be phenomenal. Will CEO Little surprise us again with another zinger? Is it time to excelerate the share price retracement to pre-covid levels with an announcement of special dividends? Don't dismiss the possibility. If CVE can do it, SU certainly can. Looking forward to a very interesting Feb 2nd announcement!
  • J
    Jimmy
    Just before a run up, there is usually a very big dip.
    Hope that you were smart enough to pick up so more shares in Suncor. Oil is heading to $100.00
    $65.00 Guaranteed!
  • b
    brian
    Remember Warren Buffett's famous saying: "Stocks go up taking the stairs and they go down taking the elevator". Now you see it in real time on Wall Street.
  • A
    Aero smile
    49.99% chance of* Tomorrow might be a big green day *
  • J
    Jason
    Concur with Dave's comment, below. I will make the comment that Q4 2021 earnings are estimated at $1.01 (CAD) and is based off of $72 barrels of oil and with their various production problems fixed. Brent averaged $70.68 (USD), call it $71. Say it averages $85 in 2022 and 2023 as many banks are projecting. Suncor's FFO sensitivity (free funds flow) is somewhere between $220 and $240 million per $1 USD change price in Brent. So ($85-$71)*$220 = $3080 million. They also have about $120 milllion FFO sensitivity to nat gas and about $150 million FFO sensitivity to the CAD going up against the USD, so maybe subtract $600 million. That's 2.4 billion left over. I believe the sensitivity figures are in CAD, not USD. So about 1.4 billion shares, $2.4/1.4 = 1.71. Add that to $4 and you get $5.71. Suncor's P/E on Dec. 31 for 2017, 2018 and 2019 was on average 16.6, all profitable years, so applying 16.6 to $5.71 and you get $94/share or so. If oil prices stay around $85 or so higher, I think that's reasonable over the next 18 months.
  • J
    Jason
    The stock market has entered into a nasty little transition phase when meme stocks are finally out, and companies like Suncor that actually make money are finally in.

    Hold on tight.
  • L
    Logan
    Suncor management is making good use of the NCIB right now. More buybacks is locking in a higher share price in the future. With Brent currently averaging 83-84$ Suncor will have 1B more in FCF.
  • N
    Nancy
    it drop $2 for su. lucky have 2 position , one for long term hold one for trading, a lot cash to buy later, still comfortable to long term hold su for dividend and reach it's fair value $45 to $50. look at pltr , Frank us tossed it drop below 12, and you do not know it will never back, but su I have confidence it will be back to it fair value. good luck to all su long term holders
  • b
    brian
    Yes, the first target for oils is almost there, and that is reaching the 50 day moving average. One stock is a notable exception, EXXON (XOM), it is performing very well and it is hardly down. I think oils will be the first to come out of correction, but I would not jump in yet. I would make sure that we have a new base in oils. This is not confirmed yet, they are still falling knives.
  • S
    Sachin
    Oil is UP already.. Looks like Tech sell out are getting into Oil Companies now.
  • N
    NWStan
    IMHO the head of the IEA recently did the Canadian Energy Sector a big favor by labeling it a "Preferred" global oil & gas provider. These kinds of endorsements can only serve to play favorably towards encouraging ESG loyal investors & fund managers to funnel more $$$ into Canadian energy co.'s - most notably Suncor - when they decide to rebalance to a higher commodities weighting. Here are some excerpts from the report issued Jan. 13:
    * “Canadian oil and natural gas producers are leveraging their improving environmental, social and governance performance and Canada’s stringent environmental regulations to build a global competitive advantage” as interest in cleaner fuels and environmental sustainability grows.

    * IEA executive director Fatih Birol is a big advocate for net zero targets, but he knows that even as the world transforms its energy systems, oil and gas will be around for a long time. “We will still need oil and gas for years to come… I prefer that oil is produced by countries… like Canada who want to reduce the emissions of oil and gas.” He’d prefer the supply comes from “good partners” like Canada.

    * Analysts praised the Canadian oil and gas industry’s “strong track record” of reducing emissions intensity, in the oil sands by 32 per cent since 1990 and by 13 per cent for natural gas production since 2010. A further reduction of up to 27 per cent is expected in the oil sands by 2030.

    The success is in part because of large investments in clean technology and environmental protection, the IEA said.
  • D
    Derek
    "Canadian Oil Companies Are Spending On Dividends Rather Than Expansion"

    Trudeau won. And Canadian taxpayers will pay for it....forever.
  • D
    David
    The. Bear is hear.. He s hungry...

    U.s banks cant made the divy 4.5%.. So the stock compression will..2.5 to 3 % 1 year Fed..2 years out
  • b
    brian
    Mark Fisher, the famous oil trader said today on CNBC that he does not know when, but oil is heading to $100.
    This trader is considered as one of the top experts in the country on oil trading.
  • T
    The Realist
    I am hearing an announcement of a Special Dividend could be forthcoming on Feb 2nd. If it is anything like CVE's announcement, it could be the first of many such dividends. Suncor is going to have another significant free cash flow quarter which would allow such a material outflow of cash. Such a dividend will bring many shareholders back to the SU story. CEO Little doing the right things to right the SU ship.
  • J
    Josh
    Did anyone take profits at $36?
  • J
    Jason
    What's happening with Suncor now reminds me exactly of what happened with BMO back in August, 2020 - November, 2020. I'm glad I stayed in. So if you're #$%$ off at the way the stock is going, just remember I'm long 2024 calls for Suncor and today was a 13% move for me in the not-nice direction. Oil's staying at $80, a lot of the forecasts are for well over, but $80 is the average forecast for 2022-2027.Suncor's calculations for their present strategy, from spring 2021, are based on $55 WTI.Watch those quarterly earnings boys and girls, hold on tight and hang on to your hats.