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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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FARMINGTON, N.M., Oct. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- LOGOS Resources II, LLC ("LOGOS"), announced today it has brought online two highly productive natural gas wells in the Mancos Shale, highlighting the potential for responsible development of the New Mexico and Colorado field as a significant new source of U.S. natural gas supply.
Early production rates at the Rosa Unit #654H and Rosa Unit #656, both in Rio Arriba County, are the highest achieved in the past 20 years within the San Juan Basin, a large natural gas producing area spanning southwest Colorado and northwest New Mexico that includes the Mancos Shale. The Rosa #654H achieved an average 30-day initial production ("IP30") rate of approximately 18.2 million cubic feet per day ("MMcfpd") and the Rosa #656H achieved an IP30 of 18.3 MMcfpd, while the wells were choked back by an average of ~33%. The IP30 for each well exceeded the previous Mancos gas horizontal IP30 record by ~40%.
"We are thrilled with the initial production rate of these wells," said Jay Paul McWilliams, CEO of LOGOS. "These results, which were achieved near the center of a large unit offering hundreds of additional locations, support our strategic view that substantial resource potential exists in the San Juan Basin, and give us confidence to pursue additional responsible development of the Mancos Shale. We believe the Mancos Shale could become one of the leading natural gas shale plays in the U.S."
The Rosa Unit #654H and Rosa Unit #656 wells were drilled from a single pad with an approximate 10,000-foot laterals in an area known as the Rosa Exploratory Unit (the "Rosa Unit"). The Rosa Unit, which is operated by a LOGOS affiliate and in which LOGOS is majority owner, encompasses approximately 54,000 acres.
About LOGOS Resources II, LLC
The distribution on the 30th will equal about a 20 percent return to unit holders which was impacted by adjustments from previous months. However going forward and based on current gas prices I would expect and average go forward of about 12 percent.
"On November 11, 2021, Hilcorp met with the Trust (the "November 2021 Meeting") to discuss several material issues that the Trust had raised with respect to Hilcorp's estimates of gross proceeds and severance taxes, as well as the Trusts' audit of Hilcorp's reported revenue and expenses. During the November 2021 Meeting, Hilcorp informed the Trust that it had completed its actualization and validation of January, February, and March 2021 with respect to the gross proceeds and severance tax estimates attributable to the Royalty Interests owned by the Trust. Based on such review, Hilcorp informed the Trust that it had determined that it owes the Trust an additional $448,780 for these time periods, along with $63,496 in interest in accordance with the terms of the Conveyance.
Also, during the November 2021 Meeting, Hilcorp informed the Trust that it had discovered errors made in the setup of a few of its general ledger accounts during its SAP conversion process. Specifically, Hilcorp stated that these accounts had been mislabeled as billable, including three of the Trust's general ledger accounts. As a result, Hilcorp notified the Trust that it will reimburse the Trust $2,681,521 for the erroneous billed labels for the January through July 2021 production months, along with $72,667 in interest in accordance with the Conveyance. Hilcorp believes that it has now corrected its accounting internal control systems."
The share of natural gas-fired electricity generating capacity increased from 17% in 1990 to 43% in 2020, and its share of electricity generation more than tripled from 12% in 1990 to 40% in 2020.
I think this bodes well for our interests here. Somebody has to supply the additional fuel required to handle the increased demand for electricity. My guess is we see annual natural gas prices increase significantly in the next 10 years. Glad I reinvested all those tiny distributions over the last 10 years!
Anyone able to weigh in on why we are down almost 20% in the last two weeks?
Kudos 👏 to PNC Financial for riding herd on the rogue HilCorp operator!!Good riddance to BBVA for their years of failed oversite.
0.1498 for Nov. distribution.
CONFIRMED breakout above 7.19, no resistance in area just above.
Type: Continuation breakout from single resistance.
Yf , great information, should make for a really generous distribution , I will be buying more in the morning.
Fellow unit holders:
I am really impressed with Bill Demchuk, CEO of PNC and his general counsel, Gregory Jordan, both of whom wrote me following a letter I sent about SJT management and "possible irregularities" with SJT, which they inherited. They covered it today, from A to Z. It appears Joshua Peterson, old management, is now out.
HOME RUN! I can assure you that SJT is going to follow natural gas movement upward durinng this crazy inflationary environment without the previous THREE YEARS of (illegal) nonsense about getting Hilcorp to put an accounting system in place.
Eight or more by the end of this month
boom .................boom here it comes $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ trust will receive $3,266,464 in total for error adjustment in previous months in 2021 so I expect there will be adjustment in div payout for those previous months or they will adjust that in the current payout ...........I expect this stock to hit $8-10 by end of the year.............
SJT might continue to run into earnings Friday. I still believe we can hit $7.50 to $8.00 this month. More next month of course depending on the monthly report.
Should see our distribution tomorrow.
Arizona and SoCal turn for Polar Vortex. LA and Phoenix will set record lows all below freezing..begins around Dec-11th
As we get closer to the royalty payment on the 19th I expect the share price to move closer to $7.50 or $8.00 per share with the distribution being close to .074 per share.
Here's a cut/paste from Barrons article published 11/3, talking about US Energy prices increasing but specifically references increased demand and price for natural gas. Provides a strong bull case for the natural gas market in the coming months. Article follows:
"As Europe struggles through an energy crisis, the United States could very well be on the precipice of our own. Prices are high—that is no secret. Production of oil is lower than it was before Covid, and there are concerns about a cold winter coming. And yet the situation may be worse than that. The U.S. may very well be facing a shocking dislocation of the energy economy.
Electricity prices in the U.S. follow a typical pattern. Prices increase in the summer and decline the following winter. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over the last 20 years, prices in summer months (May–October) have averaged $0.007 per kilowatt-hour more in the summer than in the preceding winter months. Prices drop, on average, by $0.004 per KWH in the winter months (November–April) compared to the preceding summer months. Between 2001 and 2020, electricity prices only diverged from this pattern once, with a brief spike in the winter of 2006.
Now, we are seeing a completely new path for electricity pricing. In the winter of 2020–2021, the price of electricity actually rose $0.001 per KWH compared to the previous summer. More disturbing, though, the price is expected to continue to rise this winter as well. If it does, last winter will not be an aberration but a dislocation. The consequences would be significant for both energy and utility investing as well as for Americans who struggle to pay their electricity and heating bills this winter.
The causes for this change in electricity pricing are three-fold. First of all, for the last 15 years, the U.S. has increasingly relied on natural gas for power generation as it tries to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, just a couple of years ago, U.S. domestic natural-gas production exceeded demand, and we are actually producing more marketed natural gas today than before Covid. Nevertheless, the rise in production has not kept up with the rise in demand. Finally, speculation and inflation must not be ignored for a jump of more than 100% in the price of natural gas in the U.S. since the start of this calendar year.
Between 2005 and 2020, the U.S. became significantly more dependent on natural gas for power generation. In 2005, the U.S. produced 782,829 gigawatt-hours of electricity from natural gas. By 2020, we produced 113% more electricity from natural gas, while power generation from coal fell by 1,302,087 GWh. During that period, the percentage of all U.S. electricity generated from coal dropped from 26% to 10%. Meanwhile, natural gas increased from 9% to 19%, all while total power generation grew by just under 3%. We may have preferred that greener energies took up the slack from coal, but it didn’t happen. Nuclear power and hydropower barely grew, and solar power and geothermal power are still negligible. Only wind power grew markedly, from just under 17,881 GWh to 341,416 GWh.
In other words, our environmentalist policies have made us more reliant on natural gas. On Oct. 29 of this year, natural gas accounted for 40% of the power generation in the New York region. Natural gas accounted for more than 60% in California and more than 70% in the New England region. Additionally, Americans use natural gas for heating, cooking, and as feedstock for petrochemical products. Natural-gas storage in the U.S. is now 10.2% less than at this time last year.
Natural gas has become the most important natural resource in the U.S., and there is currently no candidate to replace it. If this trend continues, millions of Americans will experience higher electricity and heating costs this winter, regardless of how cold it is."
Checkout the history of SJT's cash distributions here:
The last time NG prices avg around $4-$5 was back in 2014. Back then SJT paid a total of $1.28 per share for the year.
Let's say if you invested in SJT at today's prices and hold onto it for a year, you are talking about a Div Yield of 20% (assuming similar payouts based on these prices).
The reality is the Stock price will move upward hand-in-hand with distribution increases. Check out the SJT price back in 2014. Yes it was a $15+ stock back then.
All solid signs, for a great investment going into 2022!
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust - Cash Distributions
Congrats to everyone!! Looking great guys.
Ken Luskin, Shredsail: this morning I found the signatories on the monthly report interesting. Tell me it's not the Colorado wacky smoke that surrounds me. Here is how it was signed:
James R. Wilharm, Senior Vice President and Director of Trust Real Estate Services
Kaye Wilke, Investor Relations, toll-free: (866) 809-4553
Source: San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
Perhaps we will not be seeing the incompetence of the former "expert" running the trust who failed to get an accounting system in place for over THREE YEARS. If that is the case, I think SJT investors have something to celebrate. After my correspondence to Bill Demchak at PCH about possible irregularies in the operation of the trust, both he and his general counsel wrote me that they would look into it. Mr. Demchak, former CFO, now CEO of PCH has a sterling reputation in the business community. I can now see why. As soon as he got my letter he jumped on it. Going forward, I have a feeling this is going to be a great security to own.
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