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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)
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Duke: What The Fibonacci Numbers Tell Us About The Market--Part 1
Before we get to this week's topic, let's visit last week's themes. In Part 4 last week we set the stage for the fling of the latest 13-Fs. We began the latest filing season with institutions holding 468M shares and I predicted that that number would fall to 450M shares. I also predicted that retail would continue to hold more shares than institutions as the distribution to retail holders continue.
The filing deadline is tomorrow and between 20/25% of the institutions have yet to make a submission but so far things have unfolded as I predicted. Institutional holdings have dropped 16.1M shares down to 451.9M shares. The biggest sellers were the two largest holders of the stock. Blackrock dumped 10.3M shares in the Q and number 2 Vanguard sent 10.6M shares to the SIRI shredder. To update our share count, there are 4.140B shares in circulation as of 3/31 (including 200M shares sold short). Liberty owns 3.206B, institutions 452M and retail 482M. Congratulations folks, you now continue to own a majority of the outstanding shares other than LM.
The dumpage by Blackrock and Vanguard explains many of the things that are happening to the stock on a daily basis. First, let's look at why they dumped the stock. The firms are 1 and 2 in the mutual fund/etf business and their holdings are tied to that business and not to investment by the firms themselves.In legal parlance these firms hold the shares as nominee's for the investors in their various funds. So what has been going on? The market has tanked since Jan. and investors have been selling their funds to escape losses--or meet margin calls. Bottom line is these funds need to sell the underlying stock in the funds to meet the redemption requests of the former investors. This is usually done at the end of the business day which is why you see massive volume in the last five minutes of the day.
Early in the day the MM jack up the price of the stock so they can short it and then they lower it at the end of the day and await the forced sales of the mutual funds who have to sell to meet the redemption requests of their clients. That is why you see the stock nosedive at the end of the day and the volume spike. The important thing to notice is that the the market sell off increased after 3/31 so I would expected a continuation of this trend in the Aug. reporting period.
This also helps to explain why SIRI cut it purchases during the first Q of the year. They knew the market sell off would lead to lower prices so why spend money at an average cost of $6.25 when the future holds even lower prices.
So why didn't SIRI fall below $6.00. LM still is supporting the stock to avoid the day it has to post new collateral. That day is coming , but not for a few months. What you are seeing over at LSXMA---new yearly lows is what awaits SIRI in the future. But why not now, you ask. Simple, LM support of the $6.00 price and the lack of any info that would cause a sustained sell off.
OK so what will drive the price lower? In the last six months SIRI has added 55,000 self pay subs in Q4 and lost a modest 25,000 self pay subs in Q1. Net it out and in 6 months they added 30,000 subs or 5,000 a month. If they have to pull guidance at the next CC, you have seen the last of the 6's. We are half way through the Q and management already knows the outcome. We just have to wait until the end of July to find out what they already know. The yearly sub guidance is 500K. Good luck with that number.
LIBERTY MEDIA PROXY 2022.....
LIBERTY SIRIUSXM GROUP First and upfront, we will address the continued discount to NAV at Liberty SiriusXM Group. Over the past year, there were a number of corporate actions furthering the evolution of this group. We entered into a tax sharing agreement with SiriusXM, effected a tax-free exchange that took our ownership in SiriusXM over 80% thereby reaching tax consolidation, and received net proceeds of approximately $770 million from SiriusXM’s special cash dividend in early 2022. We would have expected that the NAV discount would compress in tandem with these actions; the reality is the discount has remained elevated and further widened recently. We have long discussed the various drivers of this discount—supply/demand dynamics of the underlying equities, premiums for dividend-paying stocks, technical dynamics, a tracking stock structural discount, to name a few. We don’t think any of these drivers have fundamentally changed, though we acknowledge there is perhaps (and understandably) greater investor fatigue today. Our long-term mindset and patient capital are core strengths of Liberty, but there are various levels of ‘patience’, and we appreciate our shareholders have been patient as well. We are keenly aware of the discount and will continue to prioritize corporate actions that we believe will benefit our shareholders and create long-term value. We are also mindful of our balance sheet, upcoming liability maturities, and the constraints of our own equity’s liquidity in the market. There are multiple paths to capture the discount that management and our board regularly evaluate. This includes the continued repurchase of our discounted equity, made even more compelling with tax-free cash flows from SiriusXM, and what we believe is the natural evolution of this company with a consolidation of Liberty SiriusXM and SiriusXM. The ultimate path we choose is not yet determined. As for the SiriusXM business, 2021 was a solid year. They exceeded one million self-pay net adds for the 10 th time in the past 11 years, reaching a record high sub count of 32 million. New vehicle penetration reached 82% as of year-end, and 360L was incorporated in over 25% of SiriusXM-equipped vehicles sold in the fourth quarter. In January we were thrilled to welcome Joe Inzerillo as SiriusXM’s new Chief Product & Technology Officer. Joe was a key architect in the creation of Disney+ and other direct-to-consumer video streaming businesses, as well as a founder of BAMTech Media. The development of SiriusXM’s digital strategy is key to its future success. And finally, Live Nation handled the challenges of COVID exceptionally well and exited 2021 with more tailwinds benefiting the live entertainment space than at any time in its history. We are now entering not only what promises to be a record year in 2022, but likely the strongest multi-year period ever in the concert
Duke: What The Fibonacci Numbers Tell Us About The Market--Part 2
Hey, did anyone notice the weekly high in the stock? It came on Tuesday. For those of you who missed it the high was $6.21. What a coincidence after I explained that the wall had been reset from $6.40 down to $6.21. I want to send a special thank you to the MM and convertible bond holders who combined to prove my point.
Now some good news for the inhabitants of SIRI Land. We are going to break $6.21 this week thanks to Fibonacci so let's not rest on our laurels. Let's take a shot at predicting how high we can go.
So lets go back and look at the $6.40 wall for some instruction. As I told you many times the $6.40 wall was never a hard wall. If the stock stopped there EVERY SINGLE TIME, you would have a case before the SEC which would be a no, no. So the boys let it run sometimes and gave you a thrill. They also made more money when they shorted it back down and broke your hearts so this was a win win situation. Who doesn't like extra money?
Anyway, what was the secondary wall? Come on I told you about it and even gave it a name. Sunday morning and you are lost. The Devil's Number $6.66. The light just went on.
OK so the the secondary ceiling was 26 cents above the wall and my assumption is that we will see a similar secondary ceiling this time around. So lets add 25/26 cents to the new $6.21 wall and get 6.46/6.47. So let me predict a range of $6.45-6.51 and see how we come out.
Did anyone see the news from Toyota this week? They are on a fiscal year that ended on March 31 and they are just getting around to reporting 4Q results. Bang up year, best in the company's history. Whoopie do. There was only one slight problem they noted on the CC. It seems that they predicted that profits are going to fall 20% in fiscal year 2022 vs 2021. This stunned all the analysts that cover the company since they all were predicting another record year. Analysts do that. They ignore all problems and live in a world of ever expanding profits which is why you should ignore most of them.
Anyway, the CEO explained the terrible guidance. See if you have heard this before. The semiconductor shortage is going to extend into 2023 and imput material costs are increasing and can't be fully passed on to the consumer. Given the situation, the company expects to sell less vehicles in 2022 than last year.
This semiconductor problem seem to be a recurring theme and one has to wonder how SIRI will hit its guidance number of 500,000 let alone raise guidance as it usually does at the second Q CC.
The CPI accelerated 8.3% in April, more than the 8.1% estimate and near the highest level in more than 40 years. Inflation-adjusted earnings continued to decline for workers, falling 2.6% over the past year due to the surging cost of living.
Whether market rallies or slumps, there it is, SIRI always at fixed price. SIRI should be used as the universal stock market unit.
Wow, up 15 cents, hold on a minute ...
Ohhh Alfred, ... do bring the car around would you, ... the Lady and I will be dining at Arbys tonight ... and put a bottle of the sparkling pink Andre on ice upon our return ...
Nothings too good for My Lady.
Duke: What The Fibonacci Numbers Tell Us About The Market--Part 4
Finally, it is here but it is all numbers and boring. Work your way through the numbers and you may be rewarded with a pleasant prediction.
The bear market selloff has been vicious and hit the three major indices in quite different ways. That tells us what is going to happen in the short term and unfortunately what is likely to happen in the long term. The last phase of the current bull market started in the depths of the March 2020 Pandemic sell off. and ended in Q1 of 2022. Fibonacci numbers tell us that the world moves according to certain prime numbers. Things go up or down by 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% and 100%. You may or may not agree with these numbers but enough stock market participants follow them that they have become a self fulfilling promise of things to come.
Let's start with the DOW and see what has happened so far in the bear market. The low for the DOW in 2020 was 18,591 and the high was 36,800. If you take the difference between the high and the low and multiply by 23.6% and subtract that number from the high you get 32,503. That last number was hit on Thursday when the market closed below 32,503. A move down to 29,844 would be necessary to reach a 38.2% retracement. The DOW never came close to that number.
The S&P hit a low 2237 in 3/20 and a high of 4797 before the sell off. It broke through the 23.6% retracement level weeks ago and needed to hit 3,819 to get to its 38.2% retacement level. The low on Thursday was 3865 and we closed solidly in the green on FRI.
The NASDAQ hit a low of 6861 in 3/20 and a high of 16057 before the sell off. On Thursday we closed below the 50% retracement level which was 11459. The 61.8% retracement would be 10,374 but we never got there.
So what does it mean. The indices never go down exactly the same percentage in a bear market. The NAZ always get hit the hardest. The fact that that we turned around just before the S&P hit the 38.2% means that we will see a multi week rally in the market that should take us back to 4381 or 4479. How did I get these numbers? The first is a 50% retracement of the decline from top to bottom and the second is a 61.8% retracement. Once these rallies complete--whenever they do--there will be another wave down that will take out the lows we just had. So keep your eyes on 4381 and 4479 and understand that these are the likely ending points of the upswing and enjoy it while you can.
Musk says he intends to clean house at Twitter and then go on a hiring spree. Exactly what we need at Sirius XM. First ones out the door would be Woke Witz, Greenstein and Stern.
Major trucking fleets across the eastern half of the US are preparing for an “imminent” diesel shortage, according to logistics firm FreightWaves. Founder and CEO of FreightWaves Craig Fuller said “3 very large fleets” are preparing for diesel pumps at fuel stations to run dry.
Not only is diesel gas at its highest price ever, but now there are shortages in the eastern half of the US.
This crisis will affect everyone.
Latest 6 month trend for SIRI vs S&P vs Nasdaq......Siri @ -8.83 percent; S&P @ -22.34 percent and Nasdaq @ -39.31 percent. As iterated before, a stable SIRI is not dissimilar to holding cash on the sidelines. Take advantage of that situation and sell a portion of your SIRI holdings....purchase some beaten down but high quality stocks. If SIRI does stay rangebound for the foreseeable future, those oversold quality stocks will net some excellent returns when they reverse course.
Highest inflation and gas prices in over 40 years! Go SIRI!
You really have to give credit to Sirius/xm for their discipline in keeping the stock at realistic level over the years. It's the bedrock of my portfolio and still a monopoly.
Highest inflation and gas prices in years!
Americans are racking up debt at record rates.
Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%.
Liberty sure knows how to wreck an investment. Even the trackers, which they paid an average of $47 per share in a buy back last quarter, is now trading at $38. This is the least of our problems. Now baby formula is in short supply, many are thanking God for abortion, and a woman can no longer be defined.
We can see clearly that NO information matters to help the share price. No such thing as good news or a positive catalyst anymore.
Can’t imagine what the headline would have to say to have this open at $10 tomorrow.
To see this print five anything anymore is of the most insulting things I’ve ever experienced as a shareholder.
Once again folks, I fully support the NRA, 2nd amendment, local law enforcement, over turning Roe v. Wade, and the bible.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) fundamental vaule is $20.00/share
Got another call this am from SiriusXM customer services, offering me the top platinum tier which is billed regularly @$24.99 monthly, but for me offered @ $4.99 × 12 months + free next gen Echo Dot ( I still have the 1st one new in the box from last year).
I guess they dont read customer notes before calling.
This is how churn remains between 1.6 - 1.7 YOY, and probably the reason why we never get a surprise earnings beat by as much as an easily conceivable $0.25 per quarter, minimally $0.20.
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