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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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6.21-0.04 (-0.64%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
6.21 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 07:58PM EST
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  • P
    Phil
    I'd like to respond to whitney's benign criticism of my latest post.
    I still believe that no one, including whitney, has the slightest idea of what plans Malone/Maffei have for SIRI. Whitney has doubled down on the shorts holding down the price for the next 22 months while Liberty gets discounted shares to enable them to reach 90% ownership.
    No one saw the Buffett SIRI/LSXMA swap taking place amongst or the achievement of 80% ownership by Liberty by Nov 4th. No one correctly predicted the 50% increase in dividends, although Jerry and others did foresee a big increase in dividends due to their tax-free status to Liberty.

    Reasonable people can disagree. I just feel that SIRI's final chapter as written by Liberty will not take 22 months to play out and that the final price offered to retail investors for their shares will be $10 absent
    any collapse of the market.

    I would be very upset if SIRI's price crashes due to macro events when they're on the threshold of giving loyal shareholders a nice premium for their patience. However, I would be even more upset if I sold SIRI for
    $6/share out of panic and read in the WSJ that Liberty offered $10 for the remaining shares.

    No gain without risk though. GLTA
  • T
    TM4G
    Soon or later the price has to rise. Sooner than later. There's just too much cash being generated with fixed overhead.
  • B
    B
    For those who like to predict the share price and attach time frames to those claims, there is an option pit for that. For those who have bags filled with (10s of/ 100s of) thousands of shares that have nice long term tax treatment, there are calls and puts to be bought and sold in that option pit. Do some research if you are not familiar with it.

    In my opinion, the dividend is nothing special. I like short term covered calls on pops (I have a few bags to sell against), and cash secured puts on drops. Sometimes I get assigned, sometimes I don't. Keep the wheel turning. I use some of the option premiums and dividends to buy the trackers, then I sell covered calls against the trackers. This has worked for me. I do not use a margin account.

    We all know this stock has been a trader's dream. Company management has been reluctant to buy above $7. The convertible bonds and the wall. The trackers and the discount. The uncertainty. A lot of money has been (over)spent since the Pandora purchase, but there is not much to show for it in the price per share. There is the reduced float, but now there is an 80% majority owner. I think the business has a lot of potential, but the stock trades like a trashy play thing.

    I have seen this thing pop and drop too much in the past. Too many calls expire worthless. I could only dream of selling it for some of the price targets that get thrown around on this board like $10 or $12 or $15. The trades probably wouldn't even make it through the system due to a trading halt. Even analyst price targets of $7.5 and $8 have been out of reach except for a couple of indraday highs this year. That is why I sell covered calls to the new batch of hopeful investors when the stock pops. If the stock can actually hold it's gain above the strikes I like to sell by the time an expiration Friday hits, they can have my shares. Half of my holdings have calls sold against them until the end of the year at various strikes. If we trade back up near the wall and the Devil's number, I will probably try to option off the other half to keep the wheel turning.
  • A
    Anonymous
    I typically see comments about SIRI's lackluster stock performance....ad nauseum. If you're invested in the company, why not grab LSXMA or LSXMK?? Given the discount between SIRI and its trackers (+25 percent), it seems advantageous to sell SIRI (@ 15% capital gains) and acquire a tracker or simply add SIRI trackers to your current portfolio. It seems like a more profitable long-term solution. What's the downside to this strategy?
  • T
    TM4G
    This is strange for this stock bucking the trend. Something is up. Major acquisition?
  • P
    Phil
    3 things I know about SIRI's future:

    1) Whatever happens will be to Malone/Maffei's (and Liberty Media's) maximum financial advantage and
    timetable;
    2) Their plan will be something that was not foreseen by anyone on this Board;
    3) Retail investors will be the last to know.

    Why am I still optimistic about SIRI?

    People who have invested with Malone over the years have made a lot of money. I know there's suspicion that Malone will screw SIRI retail investors in some way by moving SIRI's stock price down for easier purchase by Liberty Media and SIRI's own buy-backs.

    I just can't see how Malone would get away with selling or spinning SIRI off, a $8.8 Billion company with 34 M++ subscribers, low turnover of customers, 90M++ car installations, satellite monopoly, live sports and great content and rapidly growing advertising revenues for a valuation less than $10/share.

    In 2014, Malone offered to buy SIRI for $3.68/share, a whopping 3% premium to its market price. It was rounding criticized as being far too cheap and the offer was withdrawn within a day or so. At that time, SIRI's total revenue was $4.19B.

    In 2021, we're looking at total revenue of $8.5B+++, or more than double. SIRI has added Pandora and AdWhizz so advertising revenues are skyrocketing. Subscribers outside the car were added at 600,000+ in the 3rd quarter alone.

    Does anyone think that Malone would offer OR any SIRI committee formed to evaluate offers would accept AT LEAST double the 2014 offer? That would be a minimum of $7.50/share but factoring in growth, it's got to be $10/share minimum.

    I hope the SIRI saga reaches its finale soon but until then, I'm still on board.
  • z
    zidnuz
    Quiet board here on one of the better days in a while.
    Mr. Malone: My offer stands. Let it run to ten and I and many others will surrender your precious shares. Not all shares mind you -- but enough collectively to keep your great-grandchildren in Park Avenue style for their generations to come. Maybe think about it.
  • C
    CarsonMD
    WE received our dividend and now want to see price action!!
  • z
    zidnuz
    Rest assured, soon after you sell "prematurely" -- off it goes into the wild blue yonder. Admit it. It's why you stay. Or it's why I stay anyway. Too many times that has happened,as sure as the sun still rises in the east.
  • p
    phennes
    Here you go Scott....If you think there is suppression, corruption going on or if you don't like what happened on January 28th with SIRI get in contact with Marc Cohodes....He's all about what happened on Jan 28th right now with GME and AMC.

    He is very active on Twitter and check out his last few posts today...Interesting guy....Followed him for years.

    https://twitter.com/AlderLaneeggs
  • C
    Cant
    It looks like Liberty has decided not to close the trackers gap. This was decided right after I increased my tracker/Siri ratio to 50/50. I’m done switching now come what may. Hopefully market forces will give us all a good return in the future.
  • T
    TM4G
    This stock is the most undervalued low risk highest FCF stock in the market. Huge upside.
  • J
    John C
    The BEST thing about "times like these" is we don't have to constantly hear from the annoying amateur analyst, 8/10-buck jerry. Funny how he always gets suspiciously quiet near the bottom of the trading range. But don't worry folks - the snake oil salesman will be back as soon as we hit the $6.40's again...
  • S
    Scott
    If we were to get a tender offer today, here’s my formula for what would be acceptable to retail:

    $7 that the company said that they would be reluctant to buy above X 30% to secure the long term gap with the trackers = $9.10 per share for starters.
    This number should trend even higher with each passing quarter of increasing profitability, from here on out.
  • z
    zidnuz
    Dividend day. Got to wonder if the uptick is merely a ploy to part with fewer shares for those reinvesting divvies. Thoughts?
  • M
    Mark
    So, if SIRI share price is supposed to be tied to the auto industry and car sales, how does one explain that GM shares are up over 50 percent in one year and Ford is up more than 2 and a half times? SIRI price has been manipulated for years by Liberty Media's efforts to wholly own it by buying cheap shares using SIRI shareholders' money! They want you to give them your shares for a small price when they're worth so much more. Subs and revenue keeps on growing and the number of shares has seen a huge decrease, yet the share price goes nowhere. Share buybacks are supposed to be a way to give back to shareholders along with dividends. That hasn't happened.
    Stop buybacks, do a 1 for 2 reverse split and massively raise the dividend with the cash they are using for buybacks. That is the only way that shareholders can expect to fairly share in the success and profits of this company!
  • P
    Phil
    Malone feels tracking stocks gives him more flexibility to spin off companies like SIRI with assets.
    I also read that he feels SIRI could be considered an Actively Traded Business (ATB) without waiting the
    usual 5 years like Formula One.
    Malone is driving the bus for SIRI so let's hope he decides to spin off SIRI for its true value - $15/share.
  • P
    Phil
    MGM announced it was acquiring MGM Studios back in May, 2021. $8.45B. MGM has a collection of movie titles 3x larger than Netflix. Content must be king.
    What is Amazon's distribution plan? Amazon Prime.
    How else could it monetize this content? Maybe it sees that semi-autonomous cars in the future will be capable of streaming movies during long drives. Drivers will have fewer driving "duties".
    This is the type of event noticed by guys like Malone and Maffei. They're playing chess and planning 30 moves ahead.
    $8.45B is pocket change for Amazon. Imagine what they could do if they bought SIRI?
  • C
    Cant
    If you believe Liberty and the gap theory, you would sell Siri and buy the trackers. It seems even though the gap has closed somewhat, Liberty trackers are still trading at a 25% discount. Just yesterday, the trackers did even worse than Siri. It seems institutions aren’t buying what Liberty is selling. Liberty is a control freak, so much so, that their return is going to be significantly less than it could have been. Nobody wants to play with them.
  • S
    Scott
    We’ve been allowed to trade almost 2% higher today inside the price channel set forth by the SiriusXM share price suppression program.
    Oh, the freedoms we enjoy under the selfish leadership of Liberty Media’s John Mephistopheles Malone.