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Royal Dutch Shell plc (RYDBF)
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Can anyone explain why Shell, analysts and authors of articles continue to classify buy backs as a return to shareholders?
A return to shareholders only occurs if TRS (Total Return to Shareholders) increases. TRS only includes dividends and stock price increase/decrease. Share buy backs do not improve dividends and history has shown that prior buy backs have not materially improved share price.
In theory, share buy backs should improve share price but the history of Shell's share price does not correlate with the prior billions spent on buy backs. History has shown that share price correlates with crude prices, not buy backs.
So, I find it misleading (at the very least) to claim that buy backs are a return of cash to shareholders.
And, did not Shell state that the cash from the Permian sale would be used in part to buy back shares and in part as a direct payment to shareholders. Have they not now said that all of the sale proceeds will be used for buy backs? If so, is that not misleading?
Good thing about the share buyback is that 1. it establish solid bottom resistance. I have been holding other oil stocks, mainly OXY and volatility could flex your mental muscle, and a lot of people can't handle this stress. 2. The future dividend payout to remaining shareholders will be greater due to reduced # of shares 3. theoretically, reduced outstanding shares increases EPS which should increase the share price accordingly due to lower PER... So far RDS is being ignored by the market and not being valued compared to my expectation, but when the market finally returns to RDS, we could head to much higher share price. I notice that the institutional holding % has decreased significantly compared to the pre-covid level, probably because of the dividend cut betrayer. I was also #$%$ at this and almost threw away my phone when I woke up at 4 am in morning and saw a word "cut" but there is nothing we can about this. I know for the fact that RDS has the best FCF among oil majors and compared to any oil companies except Aramco. This should be priced above $55 now and $70 and beyond once the covid is gone because of the share reduction done during the covid time... I am going to wait patiently with this and with point 1 I really felt and observed RDS resisted from going down hard compared to other oil companies... So yeah I will continue to hold and collect "reduced" dividends until we finally see our glory.
Positive article in Barrons this morning. "Buying opportunity" Good read for shareholders of Shell.
If a cup and handle is forming what do you think the ride up will go to? I was thinking close to $60.
$50.. by Friday ?...
"Shell will use the remaining $5.5 billion of the Permian sale proceeds to buy back stock ..."
As best I can tell, the "macro" effect of a stock buy back has never improved the value of my "micro" investment in the stock.
It has been reported that Shell will spend 5.5 billion from the Permian sale on buy backs. In my view, this is a waste of our money and will help shareholders much less that if it were spent on acquisitions (crude/ng), developing lease assets or a special dividend. It mostly helps management by increasing performance/share and/or covering poor management decisions (including the "prices lower for longer" based strategies).
I've been buying since March 2020. Forget buybacks. Bring back the dividends .90 per share and this thing will go to $60
52 week high coming soon
Someofyou know me since 30.00's . It was 2020 july i guess. From that day to today i am holding. Dont know where it can go. I just believe soon or later it will come back to 60's.. Until that day i wont be selling. It can go again 30 or 50 i am here
shell a buy at this point ?🤔
A close over 50 would be a very positive signal. I'm starting to belive the commodities supercyicle has begun
Back above 50. Will this form a double top or a cup and handle?
Finally a good close above 50.00. I am now more optimistic.
This has been a really good run. I think in the next week we'll have a short term top. $52 Maybe $54. I have a sell order in at $54.18. Only selling 20% of my position. Have a great weekend all John
How could Shell have possibly lost money on its oil business in Q4, with consistently high oil prices?
Morgan Stanley are optimistic / positive - "Royal Dutch Shell [target price: 2,136.0p] and Eni, Morgan Stanley labelled them as its 'top picks'. The first argument cited by the broker was the outlook for oil and gas prices, which it said were headed towards a triple deficit in the form of low inventories, low spare capacity and low investment later in 2022.
On the back of those deficits, the analysts were expecting the price of Brent to reach $90 a barrel in the back half of the year, while rising natural gas prices since the start of December signalled "higher-for-longer prices" in that market as well."
Does anyone know if RDS still has hedges left? They incurred over $10 billion for the hedge loss in Q3.... Hope this doesn't happen in Q4 report.... That loss pretty much damaged the EPS and PER figures... OTherwise, this should be over $50 by now.
For Q3, I predicted that management would have some reason(s) to state earnings lower than they should have been with Q3 crude and ng prices.
While I do not have a crystal ball, I predict that management will again have some excuses for earnings to be lower than they should be for Q4/2021 (basis Q4 crude and ng prices).
If management cannot show record earnings at current crude and ng prices, they have lost the confidence of us owners who pay their salaries.
How is the "prices lower for longer" strategy working out???
Something very strange. Why buy some many shares before having tremendous earnings and cash flow problems. You prefer to buy your stock at the peak?!?
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