|Day's Range||213.25 - 213.25|
Yesterday’s decline into the closing bell didn’t materially change the bullish perspective in stocks or upturn the credit markets.
(Bloomberg) -- It took 33 days for stocks to drop 34%, and three weeks to gain half of it back. Whiplashed investors have been thankful for a dose of calm, but signs are emerging the lull may not last.The clues are evident across options markets, in surging share volume and in widening daily price swings, among other places. Frantic positioning and extreme readings in market internals show that while the S&P 500 has been nestled in a trading range for four weeks, investors remain anything but settled.“Volatility is picking up,” said Matt Forester, chief investment officer of BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “More volatility than what we’ve seen over the past couple months is probably in order for the market. There is a real tug of war from what we expect from policy makers and some of the dire fundamentals.”The S&P 500 sank 1.1% Tuesday, turning sharply lower after a report questioned promising results in a virus vaccine study. The increased prospect for a way to battle the pandemic had sparked a 3.2% rally Monday.Below are seven charts that illustrate the flash points in the market.Small But AggressiveTiny investors are historically bullish. Last week, the smallest of options traders (those who trade 10 contracts or fewer at a time) positioned themselves to bet on a rally, buying bullish calls and selling bearish puts at a record pace, according to Sundial Capital Research.“When we look at a group of traders who tend to be wrong at emotional extremes, the warning sign is clear,” said Jason Goepfert, the president of Sundial. “There is no data we follow that is more worrying than this.”Read more: Sundial Says Extreme Options Sentiment Is Awful Omen for StocksWaning HedgingA broader view of options trading shows all types of investors reconsidering protection. The Cboe put-to-call ratio for stocks, which tracks volume in bearish versus bullish bets, fell Monday to the lowest level since Feb. 19 -- the day the S&P 500 last hit a record before falling into the fastest bear market of all-time.Extreme BuyingAt the height of Monday’s stock rally, after positive early results for an experimental vaccine, a moment-by-moment measure of investor buying interest registered its highest reading ever. The number of stocks rising on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded those falling by 2,049 at one point, sending the NYSE Tick Index to a record high.Big Comeback for Small FirmsOver the last few months, a key fixture of the coronavirus stock crash has been the importance of company size. With concerns of a credit crunch and solvency risk running high, investors turned to large firms with strong balance sheets for safety.This year, an equal-weight version of the S&P 500 has fallen twice as much as the regular market-cap weighted benchmark. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index is still down 20%. Those trends reversed sharply on Monday, with the Russell 2000 up 6% and the equal-weight S&P 500 beating the regular gauge by the most since 2009.Paying UpValuations make a lousy market timing tool. Nevertheless, by most measures stocks look expensive. The S&P 500’s forward 12 month price-to-earnings ratio is now above 21, the highest since 2001. Analysts now expect S&P 500 profits to plunge 21% this year, but rebound 26% in 2021 to $160.90 a share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.High Volume & Price Swings ReturnIn the month of March, an average 15.6 billion shares traded across U.S. exchanges a day, the most active month in at least 11 years. Since, volume had been subsiding -- the past two weeks were the least active since late February when the selloff began. But Monday saw a pickup, with 12.8 billion shares changing hands, the most since April 30.The size of daily price swings has also been creeping higher. While still a long way from the days of March, when stocks moved 5% a day in the most volatile month on record, the S&P 500 swung an average of 1.7% over the last five sessions, the most in nearly a month.“We’ll have exciting days like yesterday and some down days when somebody’s treatment trial or vaccine trial fails,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth Management. “It’s impressive, but it’s still a bear market rally we’ve seen since March 23rd.”Giving Up HopeInvestors are throwing in the towel on value stocks, or those that trade cheaply. The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows a net 23% of respondents think value will lag growth going forward. That’s the most bearish stance on value stocks since late 2007.The timing is notable considering the persistent underperformance of the value style. Last week, the Russell 1000 Value Index had its third-worst week versus growth in the last decade, pushing a relative ratio of value versus growth to a fresh record low.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Summing up, despite the stock bulls being again rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the bullish case isn’t yet lost. How close to being over is the deterioration in the stock upswing internals?
The Russell 2000 has set up a very clear price resistance level near $131~132 that presents very real potential for a double-dip downward price trend in the near future.
Stocks again proved resilient in the face of Friday’s grim employment data. While the key metrics of the debt markets (high yield corporate bonds and its ratios) continue supporting the stock upswing to go on, the stocks to Treasuries ratio spells short-term caution
Stocks ended little changed Friday, as ongoing signs of the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic compounded with fears of rising U.S.-China tensions. Still, the three major U.S. equity indices posted weekly advances of about 3%, with investors largely factoring in the fallout from the COVID-19 crisis into asset prices.
All three major indices closed in the red after Thursday’s trading session, falling due to the recent update from the U.S. Labor Department on initial unemployment claims and rising tensions in U.S.-China relations. The Final Round panel discusses the latest.
Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management Deputy CIO Americas, joins Yahoo Finance's The First Trade to discuss overall markets, jobless claims and what to keep an eye on as economies begin to reopen.
May.21 -- Investors see the coronavirus pandemic as a natural disaster, causing a severe shock that is relatively short lived, followed by a strong recovery, according to David Riley, chief investment strategist at BlueBay Asset Management. "But one thing which upsets that narrative would be a re-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies," Riley said in an interview on "Bloomberg Markets: European Open."
Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joins Jen Rogers to break down the day's price action in stocks as well as a long in Electronic Arts (EA), a YF Premium Investment Idea.
Stocks were mixed Tuesday, indicating Wall Street was taking a breather from the regular session’s monster rally, after a trifecta of good news propelled the Dow and S&P 500 Index to their best day in over a month. A report late in the trading day questioning the significance of the data Moderna provided in assessing its Covid-19 vaccine candidate in a trial contributed to a brief slide in the three major indices.
Sean Covey, son of author Dr. Stephen Covey and original author of 'The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People', joins The Final Round to discuss the 30th anniversary of the book and adding modern updates to it.
Stocks kicked off the week on a high note, fueled by a trifecta of positive headlines: Moderna’s success with a potential coronavirus vaccine, the Federal Reserve pledging more support for the recovery, and more states reopening their economies.
In this episode of Influencers, Ford CEO Jim Hackett joins Andy Serwer to analyze the health of the U.S. auto industry and discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the American workforce.
Stocks recovered earlier losses and pushed into positive territory Thursday afternoon. Earlier in the session, the Dow had been off as many as 458 points after the Labor Department’s weekly report on new jobless claims showed another 2.981 million individuals filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, or more than had been expected. The 30-stock index was up nearly 200 points around 1:30 p.m. ET and was on track to close higher for the first time in four sessions.
George Young, Portfolio Manager at the Villiere Balanced Fund, joined Yahoo Finance's Jen Rogers, Myles Udland, Dan Roberts, and Melody Hahm to discuss the stocks he's watching and his outlook for the market.
Stocks fell Wednesday, with declines in the three major indices accelerating into the last hour of trading, as traders digested commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
In this episode of Influencers, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Co-Chair, Melinda Gates joins Andy Serwer to discuss what she is doing to drive-back COVID-19 and help people get back to work.
On Friday, the major averages ended near session highs, after new data revealed the coronavirus pandemic sparked a historic labor market collapse in the world’s largest economy last month, but at a pace below expectations.Jen Rogers, Myles Udland and Rick Newman break down the day's market action.
In this episode of Influencers, Yahoo Finance's Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer speaks with New York Stock Exchange President, Stacey Cunningham to discuss the U.S. economy, the stock market, and America’s path to recovery.