Canada markets open in 1 hour 20 minutes

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY.TO)

Toronto - Toronto Real Time Price. Currency in CAD
Add to watchlist
9.51+0.60 (+6.73%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
Sign in to post a message.
  • L
    LR
    PEY produces 87% gas, which is not only good on short term, but also on the long run with electric vehicles coming (natural gas energy plants provides electricity - PEY is a partner of the Cascadia plant - 2023). On top of that, PEY is one of the most undervalued company. PEY was at $30-$40 even if they were not solid as presently (D.Gee confirmed it recently). Long story short, we can expect a lot more in the coming 12 months.
  • F
    Foster
    Yeah, I don't want to sell this nor do I intend to. I think we all lost perspective about what a company like this is really worth when they traded for so long in low single digits. Most of these gassers had to borrow boatloads of money and 7.5%, 9, and even 10% 5 years rates just last year. Peyto's debt was never a real concern even at $1.50 gas but it is a joke at $5.00 gas. Thank Darren for running a tight ship.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Been putting in pipelines for the last 20 years for peyto this year looks very promising they have a lot on the go. Got in at 3 dollars and still holding long term
  • L
    LR
    HH at $5.46 and Aeco at $4.66 at this point of the year (not January or February!)! This week is not even the tip if the iceberg.
  • L
    LR
    Great run today. Many others to come in a near futur. With Aeco over $3.3 for the coming 18 months (close to $5 this winter), it's time to get on board guys. Next stop: 15 dollars station in May 2022!
  • F
    Foster
    Oh yeah! Nat Gas is on fire! Still hot going into Sept. We just need the coldest November in history and we are off to the races! Darren, lets fill up that underground storage salt cavern and keep drilling! We don't need a dividend increase. Lets get out of debt and enjoy owning the equity instead of a dividend.
  • N
    N13
    The movement in stock price over the past few weeks is strictly momentum trading IMO. Business fundamentals and the future outlook are not factors being considered at the current price. Based on the Q2 results, mgt. future outlook and Q&A, we should see some very promising business activity and balance sheet strength over the next year. If Nymex Nat. gas prices can hold over $3 on average and AECO over $2.5, Peyto will be printing $$$$. Looking forward to the next few quarters!
  • N
    N13
    Did anyone on this message board listen to the Q2 conf. call? 2 things that caught my attention are if I understood everything correctly is: 1) Peyto has a 4 year plan of being debt free or they can be debt free 2) Based on their current projections, FY 2022 will be a banner year i.e. the best year ever on record. Correct me if I'm wrong, but did anyone hear that as well?
  • D
    DR
    Very optimistic monthly report.
  • F
    Foster
    Darren's monthly report has a great optimistic tone. I am happy to see that although he never got me to laugh. I usually find him very entertaining, although, that is certainly not a CEO requirement. He made some very interesting observations about lack of storage in North America. I don't know how I feel about hedging going forward. I think I would ride the early winter through the new year selling all that can be sold at spot. On the other hand, if a massive opportunity comes to hedge at $5.00 gas going out through 2022, one could not say that would not be a prudent decision on perhaps 50% production. Everyone who invests in this industry always curse hedges as a negative thing because hedging at $2.00 just seems fruitless. However, we may curse the day that companies do not hedge at $5.00 when they could have.
  • s
    stocktargetadvisor
    $PEY.CA
    Target Up BMO Capital Markets CAD 8
  • L
    LR
    Aeco at 3.93 yesterday, and at 4.15 for the coming winter. Just sayin.
  • D
    DR
    NatGas up. peyto down. Good day to add.
  • G
    Gy
    whats good in this stock boys?
  • M
    Mitchell
    The outlook for commodity prices in 2021 has significantly improved over the last six months which drives higher forecast cashflows, beyond the required funding for Peyto’s capital program. In addition, there have been extreme natural gas prices being realized at certain trading hubs over the last week due to record cold temperatures across much of the United States. As an example, Peyto was fortunate to have 20,000 MMBTU/d of unhedged gas sales exposed to the Ventura hub that averaged over $160/MMBTU for the last 5 days. As these superior commodity prices are realized, Peyto will look to use the free cashflow to reduce indebtedness and strengthen its balance sheet, while evaluating the ability to increase dividends to shareholders. Based on strip pricing, Peyto currently projects it will exit debt covenant relief during the second quarter of this year. While the 2021 drilling program is budgeted to be greater than 2020, Peyto currently has the team and resources to do much more and eagerly looks forward to 2022 and beyond.
  • B
    Big
    I bought more again today on the dip, go peyto!
  • N
    N13
    One more item to add, Warren Buffett bought Dominion Energy last year in a $10 billion deal, in which cas Berkshire Hathaway Energy will carry 18% of all interstate natural gas transmission in the United States, up from 8%. Warren Buffett has been sitting on over $100 Billion in cash for quite some time because he hasn't seen any good buys in the market, well he did last year and the bet was on natural gas, this is a definite vote of confidence in the natural gas markets future for me.
  • O
    Oco
    My take is: Peyto is so underpriced, it has a market cap of $230M, yet it has a free cashflow of $110M (note: it has $1.2B in debt, $3.6B assets), that is a crazy value (PE = 1.73!) considering the company just weathered some really challenging conditions, profitable for 20 years straight(!), and it still showing strength against those headwinds. That's an impressive performance. Of the earnings, they paid out $46M in dividends, that is a 17% return (the div requiring only 42% of free cash flow). Seems pretty safe at this price point. How is the Carona virus going to significantly affect NG prices? Gas is not the same commodity as oil, it accesses regional markets (i.e. US, Europe), not international, and is affected by the supply/demand characteristics in those specific gas markets. People still need power and heat (even if some start remote working), now folks at home and the office during all times, now we double-counting consumption. As this happens all the oil frackers reduce capex and stop drilling because of the oil price war (their breakeven is $50 oil), the associated gas dumping slows and declines fast. Basically, frackers will milk their investment dry with super fast depletion rates on the gas, just as demand is increasing. Then there is a massive gas demand crunch and prices increase. If that happens this company is poised to go into explosive returns when the gas markets recover, NA gas demand has been growing 6% yoy, that is cranking up even more, just record coal power retirements show no sign of slowing. Then who is going to make the most money, respond the fastest, the company with the lowest production cost in Canada (that's Peyto), with new access to the henry hub (i.e. price alignment) thanks to some infrastructure/contracting upgrades. If gas, doubles in value (back to normal range) this company is then making $427M free cash flow. It has no problem managing that debt in any case, probably pay it down. What is the straw that breaks the camels back in the market? Who is poised to benefit, these guys?
  • N
    N13
    One more try, here is the message I tried to leave earlier: @Foster, I'm still here and remained a Peyto shareholder throughout all the volatility the past few years....definitely not my preferred way of investing, but I feel the tides have turned and this is only the beginning of a longer more positive trend. Even though Peyto has had quite the run up over the past year from a low of sub $1, it is still extremely cheap on a financial metrics basis. Natural gas hit a 30 year low last year, which I don't think it will repeat anytime soon and with a $1 share price, the market was betting on bankruptcy at that point. This is far from reality, Peyto is financially healthy, has improved efficiency metrics each year and runs the business as if it was privately owned thinks about the long term objectives of running a business. I intend on holding this stock for years due to a few reasons: The NGTL expansion will be complete this year if my memory serves me correctly, new gas pipelines will a rare event if it occurs at all making existing lines that much more valuable, gas egress internationally will only expand based on current trends, the cascade power plant will be able to supply Alberta with 8% of it's power needs and Peyto is directly linked to the plant and capable of supplying all the energy they need (but that won't come to fruition until 2023), etc. The current price is a steal and I intend on holding long term. Only time will tell. Based on Peyto's latest corporate presentation, they are ready to capitalize on the current gas price movements, hopefully their 4th quarter report in March reflects the positive narrative, good luck to all holders!
  • N
    N13
    Capital budget for 2020 approved.....all from free cash flow. It's amazing that a 500 Mil. market cap company has that much free cash flow. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/peyto-exploration-development-corp-confirms-220010902.html