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PCTEL, Inc. (PCTI)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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4.7200+0.2100 (+4.66%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
4.7200 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 04:49PM EDT

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  • b
    bb06
    Question for Commandor? One of your old favorites VIRT is sitting at a 52-week low. VIRT does have a 4% divy and a buyback in place...what are your thoughts? Piper just Maintain an Overweight but lowered the Price Target from $45-$35.
  • S
    Shake n' Bake
    So, I was just thinking yesterday, with most companies starting (or soon will start) to work on 2023 budget targets, PCTI recently publishing their investor presentation with 2023 targets, should we assume their 2023 budget targets will/should align with what they are trying to publicly sell to investors? If the company has a disconnect between (lower) internal targets i.e. budget for bonuses, commissions, etc vs what they are trying to publicly share higher targets to investors, could this open the door for lawsuits? The company has now backed into a one year target growth story so it would seem to me that their public information should align with their internal targets and if they don’t well I think they got some ‘explaining to do…

    If they hit those targets it’s great because the share price currently doesn’t reflect those targets. If there is some shady disconnect then it will force the board to make changes to the management team (another positive in my opinion). If they align and they miss, another positive, bonus and commission expenses will likely be much less and contribute positively to EBITDA, still showing decent results vs recent years (since the 2023 investor presentation targets are so high).

    A great question for the earnings call will be to get management to answer if the 2023 investor presentation targets are expected to be internal targets, and if not, why?
  • S
    Shake n' Bake
    Nibbling a little today for that 5% divvy although I do think there is downside to sub $4.25, possibly under $4 with weak 2023 outlook.

    Another great opportunity for insider buying and putting money where mouth is by management
  • C
    Commandor58
    For a year+, I have been thinking there would be a blowoff top in the S&P 500 to 5000+, to start sometime late in 2022 or early 2023 to end sometime the 2ndH of 2023. With the blowup of the NS1, and 2, anything above 4500 is going to be a gift.

    In my view, for practical purposes Europe is a no go zone as much of the SPY has exposure to Europe. Here is one dynamic-it be repeated for many countries. Germany is prepping markets to sell additional bonds of 200 billion Euro for the energy subsidies. Their budget starts at approx 460 billion Euro.

    In a nutshell, so Germany does not lose its industrial base, it is going to subsidize businesses and citizens with approx. 40% of their budget. They won't be able to do it, year after year, along with many other EZ countries-unless the ECB stops raising interest rates and accompanies these energy subsidy plans with QE programs. This is bullish for G/S, but it will be slow death for the industrial base, jobs, tax revenues and the standards of living of Europe. Also, who is going to invest, when energy prices and other cost inputs will be getting less competitive with China, India and other areas of the world were energy cost will be 33-75% less-sustained for the rest of the decade.

    G/S should start to "see" this dynamic, of course what holds it back will be the strong $-which could go to 121-122 (DXY) before the FED relents. Green initiatives were always stupid, now with few alternatives-unless coal plants start opening up more so than they already have-the EZ will not be competitive.

    For me, rallies will be used to raise cash of non G/S businesses with a few exceptions of US centric businesses and businesses that rely on government spending. Net, net governments are going to be pressured to maintain standards of living, while their private sectors are slowly dying. The resulting larger budget deficits will have to be financed by QE programs-resulting in the destruction of fiat currencies and higher inflation.

    The inflationary depression, that I have been looking for many years now, to start late 2023/2024, looks to have its odds increase with the NS1 and 2 news.
  • S
    Shake n' Bake
    See, this is what happens when a management team has not built-up value in the company nor goodwill with its investor base through lack of execution and delivering on published growth targets...when the market takes a hit, share price continues to tumble. Imagine if this global recession materializes, growth slows, and for this company, luxury equipment like high margin scanner sales decline. Could be some serious impact to cash flow and GAAP/non-GAAP earnings in 2023.

    Could we see sub $4 share price again? The company has cash reserves to maintain dividends for a couple years, but man, this could be a rough couple years for those investing in this company for growth. Those investing for the divvy yield here may get some nice returns depending on what price they get in at.

    One observation I have collecting the investor presentations from this company is that the company has fixated on 2023 as the year. Early on, the company was publishing growth targets for 3-5 years out (and missing completely). Over the past 1.5-2yrs they have not moved the goal posts to further out of 2023. Could this be because this is the year the Board is forcing the management to deliver on their growth numbers? If they don't deliver, is 2023 the year they break up the businesses and sell them off? As is typical, I'm sure each of the 7 C-suite employees have nice packages in the event there was a change in control or if they were to ever be separated so rather than absorbing those restructuring costs and making necessary changes to address cost structure of the business, maybe they just sell the businesses off and collect the free money in shares and separation agreements they have? The question then becomes, what will the share price be at that time and what level of multiple will they be able to collect?

    Q4 heading into 2023 is going to be very interesting, not just for PCTI, but all equities. I don't believe we have hit the bottom. More pain to come from declining home values, market wide layoffs, and lowering of 2023 earnings expectation (multiple compression).
  • S
    Shake n' Bake
    The company has 3 main product lines: IIoT, Antennas, and Test & Measurement, yet they only segment for Antennas and T&M, IIoT is grouped with Antennas. Why not break out IIoT? They’ve only invested in IIoT for quite a few years now.

    Is this because:
    (1) IIoT is not returning anything material yet, even with the years of investment?
    (2) Is IIoT performing extremely well, but the antenna decline is pretty bad?
    (3) Is it a system or competence issue where it is not easily able to be broken?

    In any case, it just does not provide us, the investors, to gain an understanding of the results and return on strategy (or if other parts of the business are deteriorating).

    Much the same way the company (conveniently) merged the operating expenses between Antennas and Test & Measurement so we no longer have true visibility and understanding of the earnings contributions of each business, the lack of financial details around IIoT, too, is a farce.
  • B
    Blagojevic
    I am staying far away from PCTI- It looks like it is going to drop off a cliff. I actually get way better stocks at www.expertinvestor.club
  • S
    Shake n' Bake
    Anyone download the new investor presentation released on 9/16?

    There is inconsistent 2023 targets being reported on page 3 and 12.

    Page 3 states 11% revenue growth and 9% EBITDA growth on mid-point 2023 targets (does not specify if EBITDA growth is on $ or %)

    Page 12 shows revenue CAGR at 17% and EBITDA CAGR at 12%

    Which is it? If they are this inconsistent in their investor presentation where else are they messy? What am I missing?
  • S
    Shake n' Bake
    Possible head and shoulder forming, should we expect a retreat back to $4.25 range?
  • C
    Commandor58
    Many of the sharpest minds in the investing world are calling for the S&P 500 to make new lows-perhaps all the way down to 3000. These predictions have great merit, not only by whom, but by the continued assumption that central banks will continue to tighten at the current pace. This upcoming week-9/19-9/23, the FED, BOE and SNB are all expected to raise interest rates 75 BPS.

    A funny thing is happening on the way to this carnage-the FED is adding liquidity. The FED is buying short-term treasuries, for example the 3 month T-bill, is my research. Evidence? While other maturities are making new high yields-the 2yr, 5yr and 30yr multiple times this past (9/12-9/16) week. The 3 month T-bill peaked Wednesday morning, before US markets opened at 3.343%-closed 9/16 at 3.167%.

    Also, the FED's balance sheet was up $10 billion for the week end 9/14 and despite many major currencies making new multi-year lows vs the $ in the last 5-10 days, the DXY peaked on 9/7.

    The FED buying short-term Treasuries or T-Bills is not QE, but "normal" open market operations. This is a technical way the FED can add liquidity, but still maintain its hawkish rhetoric.

    The big question becomes, does it prevent the carnage? The odds increase, if the FED adds enough liquidity to keep the DXY from making new highs, and the US 10yr from getting too much higher than 3.50%-which it hasn't breached yet.

    In the interim, new 52 week lows are piling up and some sectors of stocks are getting as cheap as they were when the S&P 500 was down near 3650ish.

    The other factor, that I posted before, is becoming more relevant. The sell-off from 11/21 to 6/22 was mostly professional money managers-large index ETFs did not have significant outflows. This current sell off could be quite different of "Joe Public" decides he wants out of the market and sells ETFs and redeems mutual funds into cash. The institutions holding these stocks, will have to sell-valuations won't matter.

    If there is a little mini panic, a grab for liquidity event(s), then the most bearish views will be realized. It is my view, given recent liquidity additions by the FED, that they won't let a self-reinforcing negative loop last more than 2-3 days. During those fearful days, that will be the time to buy in size. Take your pick, most everything will be for sale.
  • S
    Shake n' Bake
    Volume and price action…something brewing?
  • C
    Commandor58
    Looks like NS 1 and 2 were both sabotaged. As far as press releases, Nuland and JB only ones that said they would take NS 2 out-comments were made earlier this year. Of course, it is in the US's interest to do so because it binds the EZ closer to the US vs doing a peace deal with Tristan.

    This move is probably in reaction to Tristan saying that 20-25%% of UKR will become part of Russia. Although, the vast majority of people can't see it, this move is a good thing because reduces the chance of limited nuclear war. If Russia says this area is part of Russian, then no one in their right mind is going to attack Russia directly.

    For those that have not done the research, the eastern 30-33% of UKR was part of Russia in the past-UKR's borders have never been the same for more that a few decades at a time-and has a majority Russian ethnic people. The whole business of the Minsk 2 agreement was to develop a path to autonomy because after the coup of 2/14, the ethnic Russians were being systematically killed by Azof and other groups in a effort to purge all Russian culture in this area of UKR.

    The analogy would be if the capital of FL, Tallahassee were to tell south FL, you have to eliminate all Spanish/Cuban language, literature and culture. Of course, south FL would want to secede or develop autonomy. That is what the eastern 30-33% of UKR bargained for in Minsk 2 of 2/15, that UKR, Germany and France did not honor.

    Bottom line, the US/UK are playing a dangerous chess game, at the expense of UKR and the EZ in general.

    I bought some PCTI today, 9/27, in the low $4.20s-reward to risk is very favorable.
  • C
    Commandor58
    Back in the 70s and 80s inflation was tamed by high interest rates and stayed down for decades-aided by several trends: de-unionization, deregulation, privatization and globalization-China becoming a big supply base as was Mexico. In addition, another trend that use to reduce inflation is coming under pressure? Productivity. It use to average 2.5%/year-in recent years that has been halved. Productivity will come continue to come down as melanin is being substituted for merit in the hiring process.

    Now, the fight against inflation does not have these tailwinds, but those factors are going the other way. In addition, the amount of debt, both public and private is 5X what is was before.

    Implications, the FED has no chance to reduce inflation to its 2% goal on a sustained basis. Even if dynamics go well, inflation is more likely to average 4-5% the rest of the decade vs 2%.

    There is research-a modified Phillips curve-that if the FED uses the PCE measure of inflation, and raises its target to 3% vs 2%, the unemployment rate(U3) only has to go as high as 4.6% If the FED uses the CPI and insists on 2.0%, then U3 will need to go up to 7.1%.

    Problem is, once U3 starts going up-while the FED is tightening with expectations for more tightening-it may set up a self-reinforcing negative loop-a weaker economy loses confidence so it continues weaker-controlled increases in U3 becomes very difficult or a myth.

    Of course, FF futures and the bond market are battling it out for when the FED pivot starts. A 75 BPS increase in interest rates by both the BOE and FED next week will greatly increase the odds the S&P 500 will make new lows.
  • C
    Commandor58
    This is going to insult more than 1/2 the population, but it is my observation.

    The woke(liberal) mind is a "scorched earth" mind. It builds nothing, it only knows how to destroy. So, if it doesn't get what it wants, in a short time frame, then it destroys, damages and/or has a tantrum. Forces that try to bring it back or force it back to reality get demonized, canceled or otherwise deemed disinformation.

    The woke(liberal) mind mostly knows superficial analysis-it does not bother, nor does it want to know or calculate the 2nd and 3rd levels or unintended consequences of its actions. The woke(liberal mind) does not have the content of character to fess up when it is wrong, but doubles down on its stupidity and lack of reality-with variations at times.

    A great example of the later was affirmative action got doubled down into equity. Affirmative action, on its face, is racist because decisions are being made based on race. Favored subject groups of AA, did not make substantial gains because they didn't come to the job market place with sufficient skills in enough numbers. "Equity" makes no pretense to allow for merit, it is just forms of extortion and mandate.

    As far as examples of forces trying to bring the woke(liberal) mind back to reality are many but diminishing: Tristan, Orange Man, TC, those that tried to get to the truth about the efficacy of recent "jabs", lost laptop computers and so on.

    Investing implications? The woke(liberal) destroyers have and will continue to reduce supply of important economic inputs-reduced supply means higher inflation.
  • C
    Commandor58
    Amazing, the censorship is crazy. I posted about long Covid, what the Chinese may or may not know and what embalmers and coroners may or may not know and it was quashed.

    What was the Beatles song, "Back in the USSR"?
  • C
    Commandor58
    Going to be very interesting, I think downside risk for the broader averages, from today, 8/18, till the end of Sept.

    FED QT is due to ramp to $95 billion/mo in Sept. from $47.5-which the FED did not accomplish for the months June, July and Aug. Part of that failure to ramp QT so far can be found in the MBS market which tends to lag the FED's intent by 3 months. Than suggests that the MBS part of QT ramps hard starting Sept. There is research that suggests that sometime in Sept/Oct, the mortgage market will at times breakdown.

    The BOE starts its QT program in Sept. In addition, the BOE will start selling its corp. bond portfolio that it accumulated during the Brexit process.

    All the while, earnings estimates still have to come down as calculations must factor in weakening macro-econ data out of China, NA and the EZ. There is research that if the DXY makes new highs-prior high was 109.30-the S&P 500 will make new lows-below 3637. Current DXY is about 107.10.

    The question still remains, as it has been for months, when will the FED pivot? It is still my view, the FED won't until main street feels more pain-an indicator would be job losses taking U3 over 4%-or there are systematic credit events in debt markets.

    As the S&P 500 has rallied to 4300ish, I have been taking profits-not sold any PCTI-to prepare for better buying opportunities later. I just don't see buying in size, before the FED pivots. Perhaps more importantly, why buy in size, when QT is going to ramp much higher and the BOE starts its QT.
  • S
    Shake n' Bake
    Can’t get any strategy right?

    Move mfg to China, now China is too risky so need to expand to Mexico, SE Asia

    Expand into Europe, now things hitting the fan in Europe. Double down?

    If the company is serious about Europe, no better time for acq when USD is at all time highs, euro at lows, and valuations being compressed. If the company doesn’t do an acq here in the next 6-12 to take advantage of this market, management and board should be replaced. Company is/was too gun shy of leveraging on lower cost of debt and missed the boat to expand through cheap financing, but hey that’s how it is when feet are not held to the fire.
  • b
    bb06
    Don't look now but PCTI is being accumulated...
  • B
    BRUGGEMANN
    I am staying far away from PCTI - It looks like it is going to drop off a cliff. I actually get way better stocks at (http://Themaxgains.tech)