|Day's Range||0.633 - 0.635|
|52 Week Range||0.6271 - 0.6972|
In my opinion, the RBA came across as a touch more optimistic when it left interest rates on hold earlier in the month. Although I expect at least one more rate cut before the end of the year, the minutes may emphasize patience, while mentioning the need for more fiscal help for the economy from the government.
Sluggish start to week, as NZ and Australian dollar unchanged. Chinese yuan ticks higher despite weak Chinese manufacturing, retail sales data.
Attacks on Saudi oil fields drove demand for the Yen and the Loonie as oil prices surged. Johnson is in focus later today and the GBP needs progress.
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at .6377, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .6391.
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD could break sharply after the Fed announcements if central bankers come across as hawkish, leading to the reduction in the chances of another Fed rate cut before the end of the year.
It’s risk-on through the Asian session as the markets respond to the ECB move. On the day ahead, the focus will be on Brexit and U.S retail sales figures.
Keep in mind that the Australian and New Zealand Dollars are being driven higher by short-covering and some aggressive counter-trend speculative buying. We could see further short-term upside action in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD until global risk aversion returns.
Tensions between the U.S and China ease, supporting risk ahead of the heavily anticipated ECB monetary policy decision later today.
Investing.com - The Japanese yen, which is widely considered as a safe-haven currency, fell on Thursday in Asia as encouraging signs in U.S.-China trade situation improved investor sentiment.
The bearish tone in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD is rapidly softening because of the scheduling of the trade talks. The move has changed the timing of the next interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) by pushing them back by one month each.
The price action suggests the bearishness has dampened quite a bit since the announcement of the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China.
The Aussie Dollar takes another hit this morning. With stats on the lighter side on the day ahead, the focus will remain on Brexit and monetary policy.
Investing.com - The Chinese yuan inched up against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday in Asia after Beijing scrapped foreign quota and allowed unfettered access to the stock markets.
The trade balance data is further proof that China’s economy is weakening because of the U.S. tariffs. This could help limit gains in the Aussie and Kiwi on Monday. The move by the PBOC to add more stimulus is potentially supportive, but this will take time to trickle through the economy.
While German trade data could trouble the EUR, it’s all eyes on Parliament, which could be suspended as early as today. What’s next for Boris?
The short-covering rallies by the AUD/USD and NZD/USD have been impressive, but they are just “short-covering rallies”. They are not expected to last and may not even lead to a change in trend. They are primarily designed to alleviate the oversold conditions.
Investing.com –The U.S. dollar was marginally higher Monday morning and the yuan strengthened somewhat as weak export data from China suggested Beijing might introduce new stimulus measures.
The direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the price cluster at .6428 to .6431.
Based on the early price action and Thursday’s close at .6375, the direction of the NZD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6389.