|Day's Range||0.692 - 0.692|
|52 Week Range||0.6792 - 0.7559|
Investing.com - U.S. inflation data will be in focus this week with the Federal Reserve having already flagged four interest rate hikes this year. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure; the core PCE price index is due on Friday.
The Greenback rallied early last week against a basket of currencies as traders bet on an escalating trade war forcing inflation up in the U.S. because of costlier imports, raising the prospect of more interest rate hikes.
The biggest influences on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD today will be any fresh tariff threats from the U.S. or China, U.S. economic data and the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna. Keep an eye on the Treasury yields. If they continue to fall then the Aussie and Kiwi will strengthen.
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar, though it’s likely direction through the day will likely remain hinged on possible impact of a trade war.
The BoE just got more hawkish and economic data out of the U.S caught the markets by surprise, with the continued threat of a trade war playing its part through the day.
According to the New Zealand government, economic growth in the first quarter eased slightly, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding 0.5% – in line with market expectations.
Market risk appetite returns through the morning, with policy divergence continuing to favor the U.S Dollar. Direction for the majors will be hinged on noise from the Oval Office and Central Bank member commentary through the day.
The direction of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars will be largely influenced by demand for risk. Look for a short-covering rally if it’s a risk-on day. Watch for further selling pressure and an extension of this week’s losses if it’s a risk-off session.
In case if the pair continue trading southwards after 1.1440, the 1.1370, the 1.1330 and the 1.1300 may please the Bears. Assuming that the pair reverses from current levels, the 1.1650 and the 1.1730 can act as immediate resistances before highlighting the 1.1835-50 area for one more time. Alike EURUSD, the NZDUSD is also near to important support-zone, namely the 0.6885-80, but break of which might not trigger the pair’s plunge as an upward slanting trend-line, at 0.6860 now, could still challenge the sellers.
The global financial markets responded to tariffs on $200bn worth of China imports into the U.S and China’s promise to respond, both sides seemingly unwilling to back down. If Trump wanted a weak Dollar, a trade war is not the way.
Lingering concerns over the US-China trade dispute could continue to pressure the AUD/USD and NZD/USD or at the least limit their upside potential if there is a short-covering rally. The fact that both Forex pairs haven’t “crashed” suggests that investors feel that some solution will be reached as long as both parties are still at the negotiation table.
Investing.com - The dollar pushed higher against a currency basket on Monday, boosted by the diverging monetary policy outlook between the U.S. and Europe, while the yen remained supported as trade tensions underpinned safe haven demand.
Is the trade war on? Following China’s response to the U.S tariffs on China exports to the U.S, it could get ugly, with Trump’s first tweet of the week likely to have a material bearing of risk sentiment through the week.
The bias is to the downside because the trend is down, however, if there isn’t any may news regarding US-China trade relations, traders may take the opportunity to book some profits and perhaps form a short-term bottom due to oversold technical conditions.
The New Zealand dollar broke down significantly during the week, slicing through the 0.70 level, and formed a nasty red candle. At this point, by closing as low as we did on this candle, it suggests that the sellers are very much still alive.
The New Zealand dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, showing signs of confusion and of course difficulty near the 0.6950 level. Overall, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy.
The markets were mixed through the early part of the day, the introduction of tariffs having a mixed impact on the markets, with the Yen finding little support ahead of what will likely be a noisy day ahead for the Oval Office.
The New Zealand dollar rallied a bit during the day on Thursday, even though we are very tight, and it shows so much in the way of noise. However, it looks as if we are trying to overcome a major resistance barrier above, and once we do, this could be one of the better currencies to be involved with.
Investing.com - The euro pushed higher on Thursday as investors awaited the conclusion of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting, while the dollar slipped, giving up gains made after a more hawkish sounding Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
The New Zealand dollar shot higher during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the 0.7050 level. That’s an area that is previous resistance, and therefore it’s not surprising that the market pauses in this area. I think short-term pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities, with the 0.70 level being a bit of a floor. As I record this, we are awaiting the FOMC Statement, which of course is going to be massively influential when it comes to the US dollar.
Investing.com - The dollar and the euro were little changed in rangebound trade on Wednesday as traders awaited a Federal Reserve policy announcement later in the day and looked ahead to Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.
For the FX traders, today is all about the FED and all the events surrounding this institution like the rate decision, statement and economic projections. USDCAD is attacking the upper line of the ascending triangle pattern. H4 candle closing above the horizontal resistance will give us a mid-term buy signal.
The New Zealand dollar fell slightly during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 0.70 level underneath the find support. By doing so, it looks as if we have continued to see the 0.70 level as important. As I record this, we have bounced nicely, and it looks as if we continue to try to build up momentum.
While there’s plenty of chatter on trade, Brexit, Italy and North Korea, focus will be on the FED later in the day, a rate hike largely priced in, with inflation numbers out of the UK also there to provide direction for the GBP.
While the 1.1830-40 horizontal-region seems crucial for the EURUSD in order to justify its strength in targeting the 1.1900 and the 1.1950 resistances, pair’s upside beyond 1.1950 might have a challenging task to surpass the 200-day SMA level of 1.2010 on a D1 basis. In case if the quote provides a Daily closing above 1.2010, the 1.2100 and the 1.2160, comprising 100-day SMA, could act as intermediate halts before highlighting the 1.2280 TL resistance. On the downside, the 1.1730 and the 1.1675 could entertain the sellers ahead of questioning them with 1.1640-45 support-zone. ...