About as good a risk/reward and set of forward catalysts as NRZ has ever had for next 12-24 months:
-Rising interest rates will drive up the historically low MSR values on their book while also slowing prepayment speeds which should increase quarterly earnings and cash flow meaningfully by end of year; - Compressing gain on sale margins will drive other originators to sell NRZ their MSRs growing their book; - Increasing recapture (finally!) this quarter across all channels + synergies with Caliber's extraordinary recapture rates will further drive up long-term MSR values and cash flow; - Robust home purchase activity will play into Caliber's speciality sustaining origination as refinancings drop; - Lots of new products discussed add organic growth and cross-sell potential - big cash earnings increases + EPS-accretive acquisition will add inorganic growth - Trading at a discount to book value today while MSRs are at historic lows and with no real credit for the value of the origination businesses; - Broadening senior leadership team with optimism perceptibly growing this quarter vs. last few - Analyst price targets don't include the integrated earnings power of the overall entity yet - Hyper equitized, Covid-backdrop and forbearance improving, removed virtually all mark-to-market risk and locked in at low rates, big advance facilities set up if needed = dropping sources of risk - As NRZs ecosystem grows, it can acquire other businesses even more productively
Biggest question asked by all the key analysts is how MSR improvement plays out relative to the expected drop in earnings from origination as interest rates rise, and the basic answer was net-net NRZs overall business increases meaningfully.
By Q4 this entry point should look pretty obvious to own whatever your metric across BV, core earnings, dividend yield, or expected growth. Very good business at a very good risk-reward moment to own it
$TWO $CIM $NLY $NRZ $ARCC $MFA $IVR $NYMT $ORC alright guys..based on the earnings so far, which one you think is recovering the best and why? I am in all of these but need to park some more money in some of these. feel free to suggest outside this list as well. thanks.
j
New Residential Investment (NRZ) reported Q1 core diluted earnings of $0.34 per share, down from $0.48 per share a year earlier.
Analysts polled by Capital IQ had expected Q1 normalized earnings of $0.33 per share.
First-quarter revenue increased sequentially to $1.17 billion from $570.7 million in Q4. Analysts surveyed by Capital IQ had projected sales of $692.2 million in Q1.
Chief Executive Michael Nierenberg said origination margins will continue to normalize and there's additional room to grow market share. The acquisition of Caliber Home Loans brings a "robust" technology and an "outstanding" purchase platform to the company, he said.
T
Rocket below 20...it's a possibility scheme with poor capital structure and bad management.
S
This boat is probably docked now until Caliber gets integrated into the whole company. Seems to be the decision to get this boat going again. Likely a year or so... Hope the dividend holds while we wait.
J
CIM raised dividend by 10%, as its funding cost is lowered by securitization, I think NRZ could easily do some similar things to lower some funding costs, they are experts in this area.
C
I have to say I was disappointed in the share price going downward after the Q1 announcement and earnings call. But I remembered that Rocket was announcing today so I took a look and saw that they announced another blowout quarter after hours and the share price has dropped over 14%. NRZ's 0.85% drop doesn't seem so bad now and I once again realize I will never understand stock market logic!
D
Month long sell off isn’t cool, especially after earnings. Things need to start looking up, NRZ is better than it shows!
Y
Heavy insider buying at the highest price in the last 12 months due to stock issuance to complete acquisition of company that will immediately add to its bottom line, BV will improve just on the assets gained let alone additional leverage opportunities, and dividend payout is almost guaranteed to grow when paired with previous mentioned pros. I understand the tax concerns with this admin, but with the current FFO and real estate tax havens, I don’t see how it would crush NRZ
w
This week’s trading after meeting expectations shows why people short term trade NRZ. Going to a monthly divvy would stop that practice. I do the same with US steel. Just like RKT Missed the analyst estimate by a penny and boom. Should not the cysts take the hit for being wrong.
R
Good 1st Qtr results. Cheers
S
Tomorrow will be important day for mortgage REIT's. Many of them will be reporting. NRZ, CIM, TWO and RKT are just some of them. I hope it'll be a good day for all.
L
Does anyone know if earnings per share are calculated based on the new number of outstandig shares? Since the recent share issue was used to acquire a new company (which will bring in more money, as we will see next quarter).
M
Averaging up today. Bought a few more bringing average up to $7.10. Been nothing but happy with mgmt decisions since I opened position here. Keep putting my $$ to work $nrz
D
Calibur acquisition is immediately accretive. $20 range by Q4 2020 imo. Barring any Black Swan national or market event.
W
With a strong housing market, low interest rates, a low P/E ratio and high operating margin, you would think this hi-yield equity would be going UP, not down !
Bunch of selling in the first 10 minutes. All’s that says is there are a ton of people day trading try to play massive earnings. Weak hands. I’m here for growth and that divi. Insider buying and all time real estate boom doesn’t hurt either ✌️
J
Anyone expecting any sort of Div bump on the CC this week? Will most likely spell out the recent merger details, and I'm sure plowing earnings into that is the prudent move, however...40c quartes #$%$ and payout is 20c...any room for a nickle bump, if nothing else than to reward the patient investor?
-Rising interest rates will drive up the historically low MSR values on their book while also slowing prepayment speeds which should increase quarterly earnings and cash flow meaningfully by end of year;
- Compressing gain on sale margins will drive other originators to sell NRZ their MSRs growing their book;
- Increasing recapture (finally!) this quarter across all channels + synergies with Caliber's extraordinary recapture rates will further drive up long-term MSR values and cash flow;
- Robust home purchase activity will play into Caliber's speciality sustaining origination as refinancings drop;
- Lots of new products discussed add organic growth and cross-sell potential
- big cash earnings increases + EPS-accretive acquisition will add inorganic growth
- Trading at a discount to book value today while MSRs are at historic lows and with no real credit for the value of the origination businesses;
- Broadening senior leadership team with optimism perceptibly growing this quarter vs. last few
- Analyst price targets don't include the integrated earnings power of the overall entity yet
- Hyper equitized, Covid-backdrop and forbearance improving, removed virtually all mark-to-market risk and locked in at low rates, big advance facilities set up if needed = dropping sources of risk
- As NRZs ecosystem grows, it can acquire other businesses even more productively
Biggest question asked by all the key analysts is how MSR improvement plays out relative to the expected drop in earnings from origination as interest rates rise, and the basic answer was net-net NRZs overall business increases meaningfully.
By Q4 this entry point should look pretty obvious to own whatever your metric across BV, core earnings, dividend yield, or expected growth. Very good business at a very good risk-reward moment to own it
Analysts polled by Capital IQ had expected Q1 normalized earnings of $0.33 per share.
First-quarter revenue increased sequentially to $1.17 billion from $570.7 million in Q4. Analysts surveyed by Capital IQ had projected sales of $692.2 million in Q1.
Chief Executive Michael Nierenberg said origination margins will continue to normalize and there's additional room to grow market share. The acquisition of Caliber Home Loans brings a "robust" technology and an "outstanding" purchase platform to the company, he said.
you would think this hi-yield equity would be going UP, not down !
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NRZ/key-statistics?p=NRZ
https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2021/04/recovery-showing-momentum-after-pandemic-caused-recession