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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY-PF)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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Here is some food for thought.
For some time now, I've been waiting for NLY to dip below 8 so I could buy some more shares. But I don't think it's going to happen. Today's sharp drop is just a reaction to general market sentiment. Everything went down, and NLY went down too. But there was really no reason for it to go down. In fact, mReits should have gone up on the news that treasury rates were moving higher. The higher those rates are the better it is for NLY and the like.
If anyone is interested, the reason why the market went nuts today was that for the first time in two years treasury yield went higher than S&P 500 dividend. This is a legitimate reason for people to move away from the stock market into bonds. But. It is not a good reason to switch from 10% payers like NLY for a 1.5% 10-year note.
I am setting a new entry point for myself. $8.10. If the stock price goes below that (and if I still have any free cash in my account) I am going to buy another 1000 shares.
Yield curve is widening, about 40 basis points in February. Very bullish for NLY. I like buybacks but it’s time to invest in the bread and butter of this business now at these spreads. Should be able to sustain a dividend raise. We should know mid March what the April 30 dividend will be.
These guys have proven to me they can weather the toughest storms. Buying more to add to my portfolio today.
Just like clock work after waterboarding the option holders, we are back to 8.50..
By the way, in a post about 8 days go I mentioned seeing Boeing large options activities for Feb 26 at 230ish and time a bit beyond. I hope some paid attention.. now we know what this was about.
Another roller coaster day with NLY. I wonder if buybacks are setting a price floor for the stock.
Price Target Raised Yesterday.
Analyst Actions: RBC Capital Adjusts Price Target of Annaly Capital Management Inc to $9.50 From $8.50, Maintains Outperform Rating
Question for someone way smarter than me. I need an explanation on why isn't everyone just unloading a big portion of their portfolio into this at retirement. It is returning 10% dividend and has for a long time. I'm saying why shouldn't I just put 1 million in this at retirement and live off the 100k a year? Thanks for your knowledge.
Today the POC (Price Of Control where most shares traded) was $8.36 / $8.35. Interestingly it is also the same level 50 MA which is important to traders at $8.35. Not breaking this means the traders are purely sticking to technical.
The volume going down today was as much as going up yesterday. So it is a wash.
The 19 Feb CALL and MAR monthly open interest where totally dead today with 6500 open CALLs at $8.5 and $9. The Feb 19 Open PUT are 7862. These guys are all trapped for slaughter if this continues to trade between $8.01 and $8.49. Since there is support at $8.20 and 50 DMA at $8.35, the ideal price for option sellers is a close Friday at $8.35 to $8.49. After that some movements could be occurring either ways?
This indicates so far we may have to wait for the monthly options expiration to expire worthless again Friday to go up but mostly the institutions are either figuring out what to do with this or just don’t find anything either way and let it go sideways. Anything else anyone sees?
Higher interest rates, reflected in the 10 year treasury, results in a decline in book value. However, the rise may also result in a greater interest rate spread. Net result: slightly lower book value but greater earnings and better dividend coverage. Also, in the last earnings call, management indicated an increase in hedges against higher interest rates.
Unless rates rise dramatically, I think NLY looks good at this level.
Monday follow up. Some buys at last hour. So a bit of upward. I am also watching the monthly options of Friday which could skew the trend. Here it is:
Open CALLs close of 02/12: 3,932 @$8.5 and 5,188@$9
Open CALLS close of Today: 4,279 @$8.5 and 5,170 @$9 - note PUT @$8 got reduce 80 to 7,863.
Most volume today 1,325 CALL @9 This is where the action is for Friday.
the 19 March monthly has got 822 volume today to 6,592 CALLS @9 open contract.
Not much to say out of this but a slight upward bias over next month? We are going to $9 it may just take a sluggish 4 weeks or so.
and money flow an RSI was good. Someone accumulated end of day. Lets watch some technical tomorrow.
Jo - it does not seem the rotation has an effect of institution but we need 1 or 2 more days to figure is something could be up from the aggregate investors until next Quarter out of these earnings.
I'm thinking about buying this stock. For income tax purposes is the dividend a qualified dividend?
Will nexf dividend payout be increased to 25 cents per quarter?
NLY One step forward = two steps back. Down last three weeks.
This most likely is the reason for the downdraft in price. The stock was already trading above 8.50 when this was announced.
Analyst Actions: UBS Adjusts Price Target on Annaly Capital Management to $8.50 From $8, Maintains Neutral Rating
Most of us just care that this stock doesn’t fall below are buying price. We are in it for the dividend. Anything on the upside is just gra vy
Annaly delivered strong results in the fourth quarter of 2020, marking the end of a challenging year where we successfully navigated unprecedented volatility to deliver $1.4 billion in dividends and a positive economic return to our shareholders,” remarked David Finkelstein, Annaly’s Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer. “Looking forward, our portfolio is well-positioned with low leverage and ample liquidity to capitalize on the improving outlook for residential mortgage finance. Agency MBS remains attractive given continued low funding costs, accommodative Federal Reserve policy, and a recent steepening of the yield curve. Further, our Residential Credit Group continues to build momentum, finishing 2020 as the third largest non-bank issuer of new origination RMBS, and we believe this business will be a key growth opportunity in the coming year.
Book value of $8.92. I would doubt it trades above that any time soon. I'm just glad it didn't "underperform". Just send me my dividend.
This is the absolute LAST stock in my portfolio where, after a quick drop like this, I wonder "Am I missing something? It's a core income producer, not subject to trading whims.
Smarter people than I feel that yield curve steepening is a critical consideration with MREITs. We've been getting plenty of that lately, and there's no reason to think it will stop anytime soon. So, thesis intact.
Biggest question is when will the dividend match the higher EPS? NLY would yield 14% at current prices if the dividend is boosted to 0.30 per share, the expected earnings number. Of course, this would probably lead to a share price increase to $10-$13 to harmonize with the long-term dividend yield. Loading the truck up in anticipation.
Very happy with earnings beat and buy back of both preferred and common stocks but sure wanted the divvy to go back to .25/qtr.. Maybe next quarter.
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