Sum of the parts analysis, conservatively calculated:
MSG Arena 1500m Radio City Music Hall/Xmas Spectacular 200m Beacon Theater, Hulu, Chicago Theater, Rockettes 200m Tao/Hakkasan 400m (way below purchase prices) Networks 800m Cash 1170m air rights 500m (probably triple due to Penn Station renovation and Vornado activities) Sphere 0m (may fail)
- 954m debt
= 3.616 bn USD enterprise value minimum. Equates to 50% upside minimum in the stock valuation.
B
Significantly under fair value. Revenue is really picking quarter by quarter (more than doubled qoq). Earnings are expected to grow well over 100% with revenue growth of 37% per year from here. Price/book is under 1 now. MSGE beginning to reopen just about everything now.
J
John Rogers Ariel funds doubled down on MSGE in Q3. Now it’s largest holding. Also took a position in sports.
E
Knicks season starts in 2 weeks... Covid restrictions ease November 1st..... This stock is a Ewing slam dunk to go to 80 and probably much higher which is why I bought options and more stock at these levels.
E
Boom! Multi year Verizon deal!!
B
The China crackdown should bode well for MSGE. Places where MSGE has a presence like NYC, Vegas, and London should see a big increase in tourism due to China's actions against pretty much anything entertainment related.
J
good lord.
E
Stock is at least $95-105 fair value
G
In 6 months you'll wish you bought in today.
c
Here's another fun asset - MSGE holds stock in Draftkings and Townsquare Media.
J
they used the fcf from msgn to refinance the 7% debt notes msge took out during the pandemic. wow. that's fantastic.
r
Why the drop today?
A
Thank you, Ariel Investments (John Rogers & Charles Bobrinskoy), great value investors
E
MSGE is a great asset to play for a reopen
O
This is MSGE's big project due to open in 2023 and another in the works for London. Building was delayed when covid struck, which partly explains the price decline from $120 down to $60. Now with FDA news approving Pfizer vaccine, future for live events looks rosy once more. https://www.msgsphere.com/#about
The MSG Sphere in Las Vegas brings a new entertainment venue to the Venetian Resort. Learn more about the Sphere's construction, location, & more.
The MSG Sphere in Las Vegas brings a new entertainment venue to the Venetian Resort. Learn more about the Sphere's construction, location, & more.
www.msgsphere.com
A
Glad I have held through these painful last 3 months for the stock. Hoping for this positive momentum to continue.
c
Cash went up. Buying today. Second biggest position after a distressed mall operator. One out of six.
J
Trading close to half of book value with $1.1B of cash on hand. If looked as a real-estate play its a no brainer. Uncertainty is high due to delta variant - but risk is low. Dhando investment
S
Eagerly awaiting the MSGE earnings release this morning. It should come nice and early, 6 AM ET. The Conference Call is not until 10:00 AM, though. Interesting that the company chooses to wait until after the regular session opens, for their CC. I think some companies do this because they are anticipating a stock price drop in direct response to their ER, and the plan is to try to talk up the price via positive and enthusiastic forward expectation... Is that what we have at work here?? I dunno. But could very well be.
Regardless, I am very happy to be Short a lot of shares at $62.22. I think the earnings numbers will be weak and formal Guidance will not be given, or, if the company is honest, it will be weak too, because this company is at the complete mercy of how Covid-19 evolves over the next 6-18 months.
Covid is NOT going away. And over the weekend I came to the firm understanding that no matter what leaders of government are saying and will continue to say, none of the Coronavirus vaccines currently available, WORK. They simply do NOT work. You get the vaccine, and yet you can still easily get the virus afterwards. This renders the vaccine nothing more than a mental placebo for the masses. IMO, of course. :-)
And examining the MSGE website, raises the question of whether this billion+ dollar "Sphere" that the company is building, will have a retractable roof that can be opened on top for events. Anybody know?? If not, I think that is a terrible design flaw for a brand-new, state of the art, UNBUILT arena that can be expected to be in service for many decades in the future, given the fact that the Coronavirus is absolutely out of control right now and nobody knows if or when it will ever become fully controlled.
Feeling even more Bearish than usual this morning, and looking ahead to my next Short Sell later this afternoon, I have PANW, PDD, and BMO at the top of my list. If only PANW was trading higher, at the +$380 level, I think I would definitely go with her. But she is not, and so PDD is ranking right next to PANW as a great Pure Earnings Short Sell. Will make a final decision later today.
MSG Arena 1500m
Radio City Music Hall/Xmas Spectacular 200m
Beacon Theater, Hulu, Chicago Theater, Rockettes 200m
Tao/Hakkasan 400m (way below purchase prices)
Networks 800m
Cash 1170m
air rights 500m (probably triple due to Penn Station renovation and Vornado activities)
Sphere 0m (may fail)
- 954m debt
= 3.616 bn USD enterprise value minimum. Equates to 50% upside minimum in the stock valuation.
Regardless, I am very happy to be Short a lot of shares at $62.22. I think the earnings numbers will be weak and formal Guidance will not be given, or, if the company is honest, it will be weak too, because this company is at the complete mercy of how Covid-19 evolves over the next 6-18 months.
Covid is NOT going away. And over the weekend I came to the firm understanding that no matter what leaders of government are saying and will continue to say, none of the Coronavirus vaccines currently available, WORK. They simply do NOT work. You get the vaccine, and yet you can still easily get the virus afterwards. This renders the vaccine nothing more than a mental placebo for the masses. IMO, of course. :-)
And examining the MSGE website, raises the question of whether this billion+ dollar "Sphere" that the company is building, will have a retractable roof that can be opened on top for events. Anybody know?? If not, I think that is a terrible design flaw for a brand-new, state of the art, UNBUILT arena that can be expected to be in service for many decades in the future, given the fact that the Coronavirus is absolutely out of control right now and nobody knows if or when it will ever become fully controlled.
Feeling even more Bearish than usual this morning, and looking ahead to my next Short Sell later this afternoon, I have PANW, PDD, and BMO at the top of my list. If only PANW was trading higher, at the +$380 level, I think I would definitely go with her. But she is not, and so PDD is ranking right next to PANW as a great Pure Earnings Short Sell. Will make a final decision later today.