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Medtronic plc (MDT)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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The drag on MDT earnings has been primarily do to supply lines in China and sales in China have been way down - sounds like some good news from China:
Retail car sales in China continued to trend upward amid a post-lockdown recovery, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
The agency reported that sales leapt 28% in the week of June 20 to June 26 from the same period in the prior year, with passenger vehicle sales rising to 487K units, up 33% from the prior year and increasing 17% from the prior month. For the month of June observed thus far, passenger car sales in the region reached 1.42M units, a year-on-year increase of 27%.
Despite the rise in sales, many of the major automakers that are either based in China or maintain strong market share in the country fell on Wednesday.
MDT shares are going thru a market winter phase. They did say that inflation especially increased freight costs will be rolling thru the income statement thru the first two fiscal quarters 5/1/22 - 7/31 and 8/1/22 - 10/31/22. So that will counterbalance increased revenues as COGS will reduce gross margins. The stock should be helped by good product news especially FDA approval of the Renal Denervation procedures. We could see a sideways drift. I own quite a bit so I would only add on some big market selloffs if they come. Below is a quote from the CFO on the last earnings call, MDT's cash flows have been strong so they are back to buying back stock...
This past year, we paid $3.4 billion in dividends and we're supplementing that through opportunistic share repurchase, particularly in periods where we see share price dislocation. In fact, we repurchased over $2.5 billion of our stock in fiscal '22, including $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter.
I don't see any material issues with MDT. The high end of their estimate for FY 23 $5.65 vs the prior analyst composite $5.66. I think it was expected that MDT would exceed the $5.66. I also think that they should exceed the $5.65 because they want to be able to come in over $5.65. They had been on a trend of coming in higher than each Q target. They hired Mike Weinstein who retired from JP Morgan in 2018 as strategy VP and better relations with analysts. They will want to get back to doing that. But some edge is gone. I think FDA approval of their renal denervation will be a catalyst to move it up 10%. So I'm looking to add more but waiting until it plays out tomorrow.
Solid company with good fundamentals just lagging due to temporary circumpstances (covid and supply chain)
52 week low; annual dividend coming in a few weeks. Buy buy buy
I just added 50 shares, not much compared to my pile. I have cash to eventually invest so I couldn't resist given the long term prospects and current yield. I would follow it done some at the same 50 shares as I think about it today.
Big volume day. I'm watching and waiting for follow up comments or rating changes from analysts. I'm not sure how to spell his name but Anji Kumar has been a long term supporter of MDT and he was surprised by the $350 mil revenue miss - so MDT may get pounded down today and next week. But MDT is not alone, if you look at medical devices EW & SKY have also lost quite a bit of market position for similar reasons.
Needham has downgraded Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) from buy to hold following the medical device company fiscal 2022 Q4 results that missed on the top and bottom lines.
Analyst Mike Matson said that Medtronic "seems to have returned to its old pattern of poor execution and inconsistent results" adding that its peers are handling a challenging environment more successfully.
He also views pipeline challenges (renal denervation and robotics) and receiving a U.S. FDA warning letter in December 2021 following an inspection of the company's Northridge, Calif., facility, the home of its diabetes business, as obstacles for the company.
Seeking Alpha contributor Edmund Ingham wrote that despite the diabetes woes, Medtronic (MDT) is still investible due to its neuro, cardio, and medical surgical franchises.
The current composite analyst estimate for this year ending 4/28/23 is $5.57. So trading at $96.50 as I type is 17.3x. MDT's high end estimate is $5.65. The analyst composite for FY 24 ending 4/28/24 is $6.03. So the forward p/e for $6.03 is 16x.
Renal Denervation Article:
April 4, 2022 By Jim Hammerand
Symplicity Spyral renal denervation system Medtronic
The Symplicity Spyral renal denervation system delivers energy to the nerves leading to the kidneys, which help regulate blood pressure. [Image courtesy of Medtronic]
Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) today said its Symplicity Spyral renal denervation (RDN) system demonstrated durable, clinically significant blood pressure reductions through three years for patients on medication.
It’s the latest development out of Medtronic’s Spyral HTN-ON MED trial testing the company’s RDN catheter system, which delivers radiofrequency energy to overactive nerves near the kidneys that cause high blood pressure. Medtronic released the results in The Lancet and at the American College of Cardiology’s 71st Annual Scientific Session.
“For the first time, we now have randomized data that demonstrates that in a typical patient population — hypertension patients who are on anti-hypertensive medications and treated with RDN — we are seeing the continued, long-term blood pressure lowering effect,” Dr. Felix Mahfoud, a cardiologist at Saarland University Hospital and a member of the SPYRAL HTN executive committee, said in a news release. “Lowering blood pressure can have meaningful clinical results for patients, including a decrease in the risk of cardiovascular events.”
The results cover the trial’s first 80 patients who were prescribed anti-hypertensive medications and randomly assigned to undergo RDN or a sham control procedure. Medtronic said the patients who had the minimally invasive RDN procedure had a clinically meaningful and lasting blood pressure reduction through three years of observation compared to the control group, while the catheter had no major device or procedural safety events through the same time.
Medtronic also said it recently closed enrollment and completed randomization of the trial’s full cohort of up to 340 patients. The six-month post-procedure follow-up for the full cohort is expected to be complete in the second half of this year, setting the stage for potential FDA approval.
“The data presented at ACC underscores Medtronic’s confidence in RDN as a solution for the millions of people who suffer from uncontrolled high blood pressure,” Jason Weidman, SVP and president of Medtronic’s Coronary and Renal Denervation business unit, said in the news release. “These new data will be important to regulatory officials, clinicians and payers as we look to bring a new treatment option to market for patients with uncontrolled hypertension.”
Slight misses on earnings and revenue (non-GAAP). Dividend increased 5% to $2.72/$.68
A 3% yield on $2.77 is at $92.30. It could happen. In the last 7 days the analyst composite est. for Q1 went from $1.37 to $1.12 and the FY 23 est. went from $5.81 to $5.57. That's a material drop for Q1 ended 7/31/22. That's the backdrop for the weakness. MDT said in the conference call that Q1 and probably Q2 will see revenue up but margins down due to price hikes in their supply chains. MDT sells forward so it's being caught by higher freight costs in Q1 & Q2 that it can't pass on to its consumers. But they also said the back half should be stronger.
New MDT investor:
"Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates took a new stake in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), one of the U.S.'s largest insurance, investment, manufacturing and energy companies during Q1 2022. It also invested in room rental platform Airbnb (ABNB) and industrial companies Newmont Mining (NEM) and Caterpillar.
New stakes: Medtronic (MDT) (1.88M shares), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) (301.7K shares), Airbnb (ABNB) (198K shares), Newmont Mining (NEM) (547K shares), and Caterpillar (CAT) (175K shares), according to the fund's recent 13F filing."
Buy orders in at 95 and 90
I sold all my shares of MDT and purchased ZTS which is another health stock. I waited too long to sell MDT. I have a better chance to make money with ZTS.
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