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McDonald's Corporation (MCD)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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As of 03:33PM EST. Market open.
4,763 reactions on $MCD conversation
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check out the US Debt Clock
we crossed $29T
Prices at McD and other places has skyrocketed
the free money helped McD and the others do well
it's over, for real this time, the well has run dry
the government, including state governments have to cut costs
the result is a recession, a big one
don't expect companies with no sales growth and PE"s of 26 to keep going up, especially with their massive debt and liabilities
reality is here and now
I’m a small restauranteur and a big fan of my Macdonald’s. The 2 in our 16,000 person community both push over 1000 cars a day through the drive thru. The app really makes sense. Everything is spot on. If my new drive through only business can get 10% of that business I would perceive that as a miracle!
MCD is a no stress wealth maker. Buy and never look
back. DRIP yourself independent.
Consumers have a pandemic size appetite for MCD burgers and fries and shakes….
Undervalued American company.
Has been recently a $257.00 a share. Should be trading at $258 to $260 a share
This will crash hard. Anyone who works at McDonald’s (unless it’s a corporate branch) knows that this company is not worth $160.
I realized that the secret to making a million is saving for a better investment. I always tell myself you don't need that new maserati or that vacation just yet. That mindset helped me make more money investing. For example last year i invested 80k in stocks (with the help of my financial advisor of course) and made about 246k, but guess what? I put it all back and traded with him again and now I'm rounding up close to millions.
MCD and CMG are two premier restaurant names to own as the economy continues to reopen, imo
I always add more on dips and crashes, especially March 2020. I've never sold a single share of this stock.
I am shorting here........I do not think it will hit new highs for awhile with market turmoil. Today was a joke and a gift to SHORT!!
Went to the local McDonalds last night and used the drive thru. The manager told me over the speaker the store was closed because not enough employees showed up for work.... I'm in the burbs of Chicago, so there's millions of potential workers here, what's going on?
A new mcd opens every 14.5hours . See you can't stop Big M
as interest rates move up, MCD might find itself paying $1.5B per year interest
which is a significant amount relative to earnings
income is .034 dollars on the dollar
debt went up .10 dollars on the dollar in 2 years
3.4 cents vs 10 cents debt
6.8 cents (2 years) vs 10 cents
debt for a company like McDonalds unlike the US debt is real, it has to be paid back
they have done well to manage through the covid war so far, though
and the debt has helped to build more restaurants and to buy back shares and for the dividend
but, it looks overpriced quite a bit
if it had a 3.4 cent return without a huge debt accumulation
and if russia and china were being cool about living with the rest of the world
then 3.4 cents would be about .6 cents too low, or 1.6 cents too low
3.4/4 cents to be somewhat resonable = .85
.85 x $259.4 at the moment => $211.99
no revenue growth for 4 years looks bad to me, though they had earnings growth
I'm giving MCD a $230 target
It seems like if revenues don't go up earnings, though they went up, are limited to the upside
a PE of 26 might be two times too high
the dividend would be 4% if the price dropped in half
but the new debt has risen to $51B, and buybacks and dividends are the culprit, I suspect
the years range is $202.37 to $257.79
there appears to be some profit takers selling
Buy and add MCD shares on dips. MCD is one of the best real estate investments, expanding globally, and spits out a sensible dividend.
TTM to the left
22,527,600 19,207,800 21,076,500 21,025,200 22,820,400
MCD has done well, but covid and other issues have stopped their growth, it seems
these are the revenues from year to year, the oldest to the right
now look at the PE and the total debt and liabilities
so many new restaurants and some actually sell food that seems a lot more healthy, CMG for example
I'd say the pizza joints are the worst
I see many devoted fans here are confused by marketing and fraudulent "GROWTH" narrative and projections by insiders, management and buy-side WS analysts, while completely ignoring VALUATION and NUMBERS in general, and those posted quarter after quarter. They are confusing their feelings promoted by marketing ("lines out the door," "pay for quality," "growth" etc.) with ACTUAL NUMBERS - i.e., consistently LOWER "foot" traffic / SSS in existing older units, sharply lower A&Q revenue growth rates, steadily higher cost of inputs / expenses from leases to labor to staples / commodities to increase in debt and net liabilities, and documented history of incompetence - mismanaged product rollouts, R&D and strategies, stock and brand dilution, etc ... while its CEO sells massive amounts of stock and its founder / COB and largest individual shareholder is selling $10s of millions in stock and investing and lending his celebrity in other companies / competitors like Panera's SPAC-IPO.
The REAL PRODUCT of this company is $SHAK stock and the REAL "MODEL" is pump-and-dump every quarter (make your bets / options accordingly) by unrealistic but optimistic narrative about the "future" by management and buy-side analysts. Not surprisingly, the new CFO was Goldman Sachs analyst who was the first to sharply raise PT to $95 after bad 2019Q2 quarter.
You can argue the taste and "quality" all you want but you can't argue with SHAK's growing ever worse NUMBERS and its VALUATION - the word not surprisingly missing from most SHAK fans.
Using P/S (8x) to compare with $MCD is silly - MCD is really a REIT / real estate company that mostly franchises and their Operating Margin (OM) is 15x-20x that of SHAK (and that's when SHAK's OM is not negative which is most of the time). For those who have problems understanding numbers - it means that MCD makes loads of money on their operations and SHAK doesn't, so to compare them on basis of P/S is like comparing apples to park benches. In other words, when MCD opens new units, it ACQUIRES ASSETS, when SHAK opens new units, it ACQUIRES LIABILITIES. Even with lower revenues since 2013, MCD kept lowering expenses to produce stable or slightly higher gross and operating profit.
Even very overpriced (food and stock) Chipotle ($CMG) which has Gross Margin of about 50%-35% of SHAK and much lower revenue per unit, has OM of 2x-3x of SHAK's best OM-positive year because of lean operations and no need to "buy expensive high foot traffic", so CMG can grow organically while SHAK's AUV and sales per sqft keep going down.
Negative CS and FCF, but always boasting about positive ADJUSTED EBITDA (mostly useless measure except for management and analysts that want to cover up the extent of "other" expenses - Enron and other frauds loved to use it in their reports and ECs while bleeding actual cash) even when EBIT is negative, which is one of the first signs of fraudulent enterprise.
Reliance on very expensive, high-traffic areas and semi-affluent / mass-affluent or "while we are here let's splurge once for a very expensive burger and see if it's anywhere worth the price" so it's not surprising that 75%-80% of SHAK's first time visitors have "one and done" experience and never return - there are too many other restaurants including really "better" burgers - the "captive market" idea doesn't usually work long term.
The idea that when SHAK stops opening the units it will suddenly start producing amazing profits is based on fundamental misunderstanding of its "model" and market economics and accounting - IN REALITY, they will just stop "growing" / "buying" revenue and will keep producing same losses because their operating margins are just too thin due to its "model" high built-in expenses (which will include even more service on the debt accumulated to build these units) and traffic even slower due to brand dilution and fresh "new new thing" competition - only insiders and WS will already suck all the money out of it and nobody is going to give them 500x P/E of imaginary "estimated next year profits".
Some SHAK myths :
too much debt
and interest rates heading up
and the free money ran out
and the national debt crossed $29T
and the food may kill you over time in my opinion; seems the science backs up that statement
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