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Lennar Corporation (LEN-B)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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836 reactions on $LEN-B conversation
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50% dividend hike for LEN! And KB now up 10% on the open.
I'll be buying a new home in St George Utah. Builders there build a better home and pay realtors a commission !
Spin-off will create additional value. Asset light, management fee businesses should get a good valuation. Plus monetizing $5 bil or so in land assets means 15% of the market cap is being converted to cash. No impact on profits from doing so at the home building level. So in the end you have a stock at $106 that will generate $16-17 in EPS (so LEN trades at 6.5X 2022E EPS) and receive cash and spin-off shares worth $5 bil ($16.67 per share) and $2 bil or so, respectively. The ongoing home building business will be very asset light and produce 30% ROE and likely 100% FCF conversion. This is NOT currently “in the stock”. Lennar is a dominant builder in almost all of its markets, giving it enormous scale advantages, and will maintain 5 years worth of optioned land held on the books for less than $1.5 bil (5% of mkt cap). The buybacks to come should be enormous. 10% of shares can easily be retired every year just out of FCF. Zero net debt. The valuation should begin to gravitate toward NVR’s even if margins pull back somewhat in future years.
How do you compete with DHI, PHM, LEN for land, labor, materials if you are a smaller builder? Mighty hard.
Lennar’s FCF just this year will approximate the mkt cap of the 6th largest builder in the US (KBH, MTH, TMHC). That’s amazing!
Don't worry about today's downdraft! It was a combo of tax trimming that was not done until the tax year changed, and rates popping up.
Psst to sellers: The whole world knows that rates are heading up A BIT. Not a reason to sell!
Net earnings per diluted share increased 39% to $3.91 (increased 55% to $4.36, excluding mark to market losses on strategic technology investments)
Net earnings increased 35% to $1.2 billion (increased 50% to $1.3 billion, excluding mark to market losses on strategic technology investments)
Revenues increased 24% to $8.4 billion
Deliveries increased 11% to 17,819 homes
New orders increased 2% to 15,539 homes; new orders dollar value increased 16% to $7.3 billion
Backlog increased 26% to 23,771 homes; backlog dollar value increased 45% to $11.4 billion
Homebuilding operating earnings of $1.8 billion, compared to operating earnings of $1.1 billion
Financial Services operating earnings of $111.4 million, compared to operating earnings of $151.2 million
Multifamily operating earnings of $9.3 million, compared to operating earnings of $26.7 million
Lennar Other operating loss of $176.2 million, compared to operating loss of $1.2 million
Years of supply owned homesites decreased to 3.0 years
Controlled homesites increased to 59%
Homebuilding cash and cash equivalents of $2.7 billion
Retired $850 million of homebuilding senior notes due in fiscal year 2022
Repurchased 10 million shares of Lennar common stock for $977.4 million
Homebuilding debt to total capital of 18.3%, the lowest in the Company's history
WSJ: The Wall Street Journal
WSJ just now: "Millennials’ growing appetite for homeownership is boosting demand for housing that economists think will remain strong for years"
As of Wednesday's close 2.6% of Lennar share float was being sold short. Everyone is all on one side of the boat with this stock going long many people on margin. Without short sellers, when this thing falls, nothing but air below. Be careful if you are long this stock.
The 176 million dollar question....just WTH is strategic technology investment (loss)?
Just drop a line in to exclude a 176 million dollar loss and nobody will notice???
Home building is a cyclical and rate sensitive industry. Growth has peaked meaning the stock price has peaked. In a strong pre-Covid economy with low rates this stock was at a high of 70-ish. Look for this thing to drop back down to 90 in Q1 as the 30 year fixed moves towards 4%. ￼
Very positive segment on homebuilders on Fast Money last night. We have a long way to go.
KB Home earnings report helping us this morning. Sales, earnings, average home price - all good. KB is up 5% pre-market.
CNBC the exchange saying higher rates will hurt housing=normal rates use to be 5 or 6 %, the more I watch cnbc (market coverage) the more they manipulate the market.
we look forward to 2022, we expect to deliver approximately 67,000 homes with a 27.0% - 27.5% gross margin for the year, with more or less 12,500 homes at a gross margin of approximately 26.75% in the first quarter.
67,000 homes in 2022, but only 12,500 in the first quarter?
Margins strong, demand strong, great mgmt., S,G&A extremely low, delayed closings will eventually close, L&M increases can be passed to buyers for the most part, minor rate hikes will not derail the demand, buy.
Len has 28 billion dollars in revenues a year,same as viacom. Len at $116 a share. Viacom at $30 plus $3.25% dividend. Something is wrong
Nothing to do but re-load for next push up
Double digit % increase in business activity, paid down a billion in debt & openly declared a floor in the stock price just below where it is now - has to be one of my most solid holds into a boom construction year where supply chain & labor constraints will be entirely shed - New home buyers really are champing at the bit, FOMO is running rampant out there, you'll see. Go ahead & sell without a real thesis, then come back & try to chase it later -
Why did she say GAAP earnings?
Lennar EPS misses, beats on revenue
what will be the catalyst for the homebuilders crash.......the 7 interest rate hikes next year?....always the pump before dump
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