|Day's Range||108.23 - 108.48|
|52 Week Range||104.8710 - 114.1840|
The US dollar has rallied significant during the week, reaching towards the ¥108.50 level. At this point, there is a significant amount of resistance just waiting to happen, so if it were to be broken it’s very likely that the market could go looking towards the ¥110 level. However, if we break down, the ¥107 level should be supportive.
The British pound skyrocketed during the week on trade hopes involving the Brexit situation. As we are starting to see signs of progress in those negotiations. However, we have not seen a true decision made, so a lot of this could be a simple short covering.
The US dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, crashing into the ¥108.50 level. The 200 day EMA is just above, and it’s very likely that the market could turn right back around, based upon basic technical analysis.
The British pound rocketed higher during the trading session on Friday, as the hoped-for Brexit being worked out is reaching a fever pitch. Having said that, the market is still fragile in the sense that this is probably more short covering than anything else, and could turn around at the drop of a dime. If there is some type of negative headline out there, it’s likely that the pair will fall apart.
The USD/JPY is going to continue to more higher and could even accelerate to the upside if buyers can take out the recent top at 108.478. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the August 1 top at 109.317. A breakout will be triggered by the announcement of any positive news from the trade talks.
Investing.com - The pound jumped to an intraday high on Friday after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”
The US dollar initially fell against the Japanese yen as a rumor came out that Chinese officials were leaving a day early from the talks in Washington DC. Once the truth came out, the market turned around in more of a “risk on” attitude.
The British pound initially pulled back during the trading session on Thursday but then turned around to crash into the top of several candlesticks from earlier in the week. That being said, it’s very likely that the markets will find some resistance.
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday after consumer prices rose less than expected in September, increasing the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting rates before the end of the year.
We’re expecting to see more whipsaw action on Thursday with the release of a plethora of positive and negative headlines as traders seek clarity as to the progress of the trade talks.
Global stock market indices plummeted on a report by South China Morning Post SCMP suggesting no progress was made at deputy level talks before the US-China trade meeting to kick off today.
While economic data will bring the EUR, GBP, and USD into focus, a resumption of U.S – China trade talks is the main event of the day.
The US dollar has initially fallen during the trading session on Wednesday, only to turn around to rally against the Japanese yen. Quite frankly, there’s a lot of noise out there involving the US/China trade situation, and perhaps a little bit of hope as enter the market based upon a potential partial deal.
The British pound initially rallied during the trading session on Wednesday but has ran into a significant amount of resistance at the ¥132 level yet again. Ultimately, this is a market that has been struggling overall, and therefore the fact that we have given back most of the gains should not be a huge surprise.
Today’s Fed minutes are a toss-up. Furthermore, the data is stale. Since the mid-September meeting, reports have shown the U.S. economy has weakened. So it really doesn’t matter what policymakers thought about the economy two weeks ago.
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar was weak despite reports that China is open to a partial trade deal despite the U.S. blacklisting Chinese firms earlier in the week, as traders await the Federal Reserve latest meeting minutes for clues on the direction of interest rates.
A light economic calendar leaves geopolitics and U.S – China trade talks in focus in particular. Expect negative news to weigh heavily on risk sentiment.
The US dollar went back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, as the market continues to try to figure out what the risk parameters are globally. Remember, this pair is very risk sensitive, so keep in mind that headlines will continue to make this difficult trading conditions.
The British pound broke out during the trading session on Tuesday, slicing towards the ¥130 level underneath. At this point, the market has found the ¥132 level as far too resistive. The candle stick of course is very bearish looking and it looks as if we have more of a “risk off” move ahead of us.
Investing.com - The pound tumbled on Tuesday, as the U.K. government blamed German Chancellor Angela Merkel of making any type of Brexit agreement impossible.
Generally speaking, the price action will be determined by “risk-on” and “risk-off”. More specifically, rising yields and stocks will be supportive for the USD/JPY and lower yields and weaker stocks will be bearish for the Forex pair.
With economic data on the lighter side once more, we expect geopolitics to continue to drive the majors. Does China have the upper ahead of talks?
The US dollar has initially gapped lower against the Japanese yen only to turn around during early trading on Monday to reach towards the ¥107 level again. This is an area that has been both support and resistance recently, so it looks as if we are at a short-term inflection point.
There are no economic reports today so traders will be focused on Powell’s speech at 17:00 GMT. Another less-dovish speech will likely underpin the USD/JPY. Trump could trigger a break in the Forex pair if he decides to make negative comments about China or the trade deal.