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Please! The problem here is NOT shorts or manipulation! For cryin' out loud, there's something like 2.5% of the OS shorted. Nobody, and I mean nobody, is wasting their time on this company.
No, the problem here is their ph3 did not meet the primary endpoints, they released a REALLY poorly written PR, then gave their airhead CEO (who is clearly NOT a science guy) point on the conf call, wherein he promptly (and expectedly) turned the whole thing into a #hi!show. There is no way a thinking person/investor could have left that call with exuberance and confidence.
Does the drug work? Well, it did have compelling results in a subset of the treated population; the largest subset at that. Is the company worth more than the $25M MC it now sports? Probably. But in the hands of this crew, who knows?
I can just about guarantee you this...there is no way THIS leadership and THIS board of directors are going to bring this drug across the finish line. They are going to need a much more diverse (in EVERY sense of the word) team, a scientific advisory team of outside experts, and a much more polished and professional scientific/clinical front...and don't even get me started on PR and Investor Relations. Probably the best thing that could happen here is they manage to offload the asset (either through a "partnership", buyout, whatever) to a company that actually has what it takes to understand what this drug can do and, if possible, bring it to market.
EPS and cash has kept a lid on the stock price, and while I still think HI is undervalued at $29, I don’t the the upside i once saw. I should have sold last year.
Tomorrow is going to be interesting. down 5% AH.
He doesn’t have to $hi on them but just pivot to point out the favorable safety profile of NVAX.